Looking at Live Dogs This Weekend
College Schedule Is Loaded With Live Underdogs
As Linemakers And Public Line Up With Favorites
100-Unit College Blowout Game Of The Week
Is Set To Get All The Money Saturday
On Sunday I Will Be Going For My 3rd Straight
50-Unit NFL Game Of The Week
By Kelso Sturgeon
I failed my first test of the fourth week of college football by losing an embarrassing 50-unit play on Pittsburgh (+3.5) in its 31-3 loss to Miami but of necessity will shake that off and march head-long into one of the most attractive college betting cards of the season.
The first issue that must be addressed is that of betting lines, as the questions continue as to just who is making the numbers, especially those offered at the opening. The foundation of successful handicapping begins with accurate betting lines and over the past three weeks bettors have not been getting them.
- Northwestern opened as a 10-point favorite over Central Michigan and soon went to -6.5, where it remains.
- Penn State opened -19 over Temple and quickly dropped, currently standing at -14.
- Oklahoma opened -18 over Cincinnati and is now -13.5.
- LSU opened -6.5 over West Virginia and is now -10.
- Texas-El Paso opened -7 over Memphis and is now -11.5.
Before you say, so what, these things happen, please let me assure you "these things happen" but there is always a legitimate reason behind the moves-things such as injury to a key skill player or a dramatic change in weather conditions. In the five games mentioned above, nothing happened to merit such line movement and that leads me to the unmentionable.
Whoever made the accepted opening line in the past moved on some three weeks ago and whoever replaced him is a bit deficient.
An example of what can and should move a line is the North Texas at Florida Atlantic game. In that one FAU opened as a -6 home favorite and is now -10-with the adjustment based on the fact North Texas because of injuries has major problems at the quarterback spot this week.
This Brings Me To The Issue Of Live Dogs
Please understand what you are about to read here is not a blanket suggest you should bet on these teams. I just want to share a lack of understanding at some of the betting lines this week, willing to expose myself to criticism when it turned out my assessments were wrong.
The man making those opening betting lines and the public that supported them left me with this question heading into Saturday.
- How in heaven's name can Georgia Tech be an 8-point favorite over the best N.C. State team I have seen in years? N.C. State has a superstar quarterback in Russell Wilson and he is supported by a talented cast that is dramatically superior to that of Tech.
- How can the worst Ole Miss team in years be a 2.5-point favorite over an outstanding 2-0 Fresno State team? This is the Mississippi team that was upset in its opening game, 49-48, in overtime by I-AA Jacksonville State, struggled to beat a bad Tulane team, 27-13, and was then upset against last week, this time by Vanderbilt, 28-14.
- How can a struggling Florida team be a 14-point favorite over a 3-0 Kentucky team that is loaded with firepower. The Gators revealed all their weaknesses in a 31-17 win at Tennessee last week and, believe it or not, are looking at a five-loss season.
- How can Maryland open as a 10.5-point favorite over a Florida International team that took both Rutgers and Texas A&M to the money before losing, respectively, 19-14 and 27-20. Despite being 2-1, Maryland is less than a mediocre football team.
I may/may not be on any of these underdogs but linemakers and bettors who made and supported these numbers are living in the past, especially with Penn State and Mississippi, and betting them off what they were in the past and not what they are in 2010.
My current figures say all these are live dogs this weekend.
Chairman's Club Off To 10-2 Start
I am off to an excellent start this football season and am pleased to report each of my three clubs are winning money. I am looking forward to another excellent weekend of winning play and it all begins on Saturday it's another 100-unit college blowout winner and continues Sunday as I go for my third straight winning 50-unit NFL Game of the Week.
Here is the complete record for each service through Thursday night's games.
- Best Bets Club: 13-14-1 plus 118 units
- Chairman's Club: 10-2 plus 225 units
- Personal Best Club: 4-2 plus 100 units
You can join my Best Bets, Chairman's and Personal Best clubs on this site, or toll free at 1-800-755-2255. Membership in my Best Bets Club is $199 for the entire college and pro season while membership in my Chairman's Club (which includes all Best Bets plays) is $499 for the season and membership also gets you free membership in my Best Bets Club. You can join my Personal Best Club for highrollers for $2,000, or in two payments of $1,250.
Please get all the details by visiting the service section on this site, or by calling my office toll free at 1-800-755-2255.
I accept all major credit cards.
Kelso's College Top 25
- Alabama (3-0)...7-point favorite at Arkansas (3-0)
- Ohio State (3-0)...43-point home favorite over Eastern Michigan (0-3)
- TCU (3-0)...17.5-point home favorite over SMU (2-1)
- Nebraska (3-0)...41.5 home favorite over I-AA South Dakota State (0-2)
- Boise State (3-0)...18-point home favorite over Oregon State (1-1)
- Stanford (3-0)...4.5-point favorite at Notre Dame (1-2)
- Arkansas (3-0)...7-point home underdog over Alabama (3-0)
- Texas (3-0)...15.5-point home favorite over UCLA (1-2)
- Oregon (3-0)...11.5-point favorite at Arizona State (2-1)
- Oklahoma (3-0)...13.5-point favorite at Cincinnati (1-2)
- Auburn (3-0)...3-point home favorite over South Carolina (3-0)
- Arizona (3-0)...6.5-point home favorite over California (2-1)
- South Carolina (3-0)...3-point underdog at Auburn (3-0)
- N.C. State (3-0)...8-point underdog at Georgia Tech (2-1)
- Utah (3-0)...31-point home favorite over San Jose State (1-2)
- Florida (3-0)...14.5-point home favorite over Kentucky (3-0)
- Iowa (2-1)...28-point home favorite over Ball State (1-2)
- LSU (3-0)...10-point home favorite over West Virginia
- Nevada (3-0)...4-point favorite at BYU
- Oklahoma State (3-0)...Off
- Miami (2-1)...Beat Pittsburgh 31-3 Thursday.
- Air Force (2-1)...13.5-point favorite at Wyoming
- Missouri (3-0)...20-point home favorite over Miami-OH
- Texas A&M (3-0)...Off
- Michigan State (3-0)...31-point home favorite over I-AA Northern Colorado (2-1)
College Handicapping Hints
- Akron, at Indiana is 0-3 SU and ATS and lost at home to Indiana, 38-21, as a 3-point favorite in 2009. The Hoosiers are 22.5-point favorites this time around.
- Arizona is a 6.5-point home favorite over California (2-1) as it tries to go to 4-0 SU and ATS. The Wildcats come into this off a powerful 34-27 win over nationally ranked Iowa last week.
- Boise State (2-0) is a 18.5-point home favorite over Oregon State (1-1) and has lost but one regular season game at home in the last 10 years, that coming in the third game of the 2001 season when Texas-El Paso turned the trick, 42-17. The Broncos SU regular season home record for the past 10 years is 61-1. The last time these two teams met, in the second game of the 2006 season, Boise won, 42-14, as a 7.5-point favorite.
- Colorado State (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) is a 7.5-point home underdog to Idaho (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) is looking at its 13th straight loss. In its previous 12 games, the Rams are 1-10-1 ATS.
- Eastern Michigan (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS) is a 44.5-point underdog at Ohio State (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) has lost 15 straight dating back to last season's 0-12 mark.
- Florida International (0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS) is an 12-point underdog at Maryland (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) covered as a 15-point home dog to Rutgers, losing 19-14, and as a 28-point underdog at Texas A&M, losing 27-20, last week. The Golden Panthers just might be a bit under-rated.
- Houston (2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) is a 19.5-point home favorite over Tulane (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) even though the Cougars will be without superstar quarterback Case Keenum and his back-up, both injured last week at UCLA and considered out for the season. Houston will start true freshman Terrance Broadway at quarterback in this one. Broadway played 1.5 quarters at UCLA last week and completed 63% of his passes for 84 yards and led the Cougars on a 74-yard touchdown drive and a 49-yard drive that resulted in a field goal.
- Mississippi (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) is a 2.5-point home favorite over Fresno State (2-0, 2-0) and one wonders why? For the record, the same I-AA Jacksonville State team that beat Ole Miss, 49-48, in overtime as a 29.5-point underdog to open the season, was life-and-death to beat Georgia State, which this season is fielding its first football team ever, 34-27 in overtime last week.
- New Mexico (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) is a 10.5-point underdog at UNLV (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS). The Lobos went 1-11 last year under first-year coach Mike Locksley, beating only Colorado State by two points, and this season have been outscored by an average of 49.7 points per game this season, losing at Oregon, 72-0, at home against Texas Tech, 52-17, and at home to Utah, 56-14. How does Locksley keep his job?
- New Mexico State (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) is a 23-point underdog at Kansas (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) and is facing its 10th consecutive loss. In those games the Aggies are 3-7 ATS.
- North Texas (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) is a 10-point underdog at Florida Atlantic (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS). The so-called Mean Green have gone 5-34 since Dodge took over as coach in 2007 and three of those wins were over Western Kentucky which became a I-A team three seasons ago and since has gone 2-17. How does this guy keep his job?
- Oregon (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) gets the acid test at Arizona State (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) Saturday. Oregon has been absolutely over-powering thus far, beating hapless New Mexico, 72-0, winning at Tennessee, 48-13, and crushing I-AA Portland State, a 55-point underdog, 69-0 at home last week. ASU took Wisconsin to the money last week in Madison before losing by a single point, 20-19. The Ducks are -11.5.
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