Syracuse Is Still Number One
Everything You Wanted To Know About Handicapping
College Conference Tournaments--And Then Some
Syracuse Number One In My Top 25 For 7th Straight Week
Do You Believe Me Now That Celtics Are Done--Toast?
I am pleased to report I had an outstanding week in both college and NBA basketball and really put the icing on the cake Sunday when I went a perfect 6-0, including winning my 75-unit College-NBA Parlay with underdog Louisville in its outright win at Connecticut and with underdog Denver's cover at the Los Angeles Lakers.
The karma continues--and that's good news heading into the college conference tournaments on our way to the big dance, the NCAA Tournament that begins in two weeks. Handicapping the college tournaments presents several new challenges but none of them are unique. If your are doing your own handicapping, here is my basic checklist for handling the post season, from the college tournaments right through the NCAA championship in April.
10 Winning Points
- Is the team on which you are thinking of betting the same team you saw during the regular season? This is an extremely important factor because players who played an integral part in a team's regular season's success may all at once be on the injury list. There is no better example of this than Purdue, which has lost its best player, 6-8 junior forward Robbie Hummel, to injury. In their first game without him, the Boilermakers lost at home to Michigan State, 53-44.
- What is a team's road record? You will find that teams that won on the road during the season traditionally perform well on the neutral floors on which most games are played. Teams with bad road records usually do not.
- Is the tournament being played on the home court of any one of the participating teams? Two standout cases of this exist. Nationally ranked Butler hosts the Horizon League Tournament at its own Hinkle Field House and UNLV hosts the Mountain West Conference Tournament on its home court, The Thomas& Mack Center. That gives both these teams a big edge.
- How have teams meeting in the college conference tournaments fared against one another during the regular season? This offers some insight into how they will perform against one another again--and do not buy into the old wives' tale that it is difficult to beat the same team three times in the season. There is no evidence that is so.
- How have teams fared in close games (any game decided by 5 or less points) during the regular season? Tournament games have a history of being closer than they should be and I want a team that has proved to be a winner when the heat was on.
- Teams with junior and senior dominated starting line ups have an historical edge over younger teams. For instance, this would be my biggest knock on Kentucky which starts three freshmen.
- I also favor teams that have traditionally strong programs and a long history of playing well in tournaments.
- In games that figure to be close I will always go with the team that (1) has the more experienced starting lineup, the deepest bench and the best coach.
- When a big underdog plays at an extremely high level and pulls off an upset, I take the position the team cannot repeat that performance, especially in the short time frame between games. I never say never but I usually make at least a modest play against teams such as this the next time they take the court.
- If I can make a solid case for both teams to win a particular game, I either pass on the game or take the dog. I never use the favorite in games such as this.
Hopefully these 10 things will give you a bit of a leg up and help you with your tournament handicapping.
Let Me Handicap For You
I know by my contact with my clients through the years that they are a knowledgeable bunch--and I truly respect that. But being informed and armed with know-how is one thing and having the time to do the necessary work is quite another.
Since the numbers became tighter than a dead heat this season, I know for a fact I personally spend at least 50% more time handicapping. For instance, last year I would spend a collective 10-12 hours analyzing the big Saturday cards. This year I being on Wednesday to work on Saturday and between Friday and Sunday morning I sleep on average a total of five-six hours.
I am not complaining but am just explaining how much more work is required in the world of hard numbers. Even up to last year I could find several games each week that I knew the betting lines were far afield from reality. That time is gone.
If you do not have the time to give handicapping the needed hours right now, please let me do the work for you. I am better prepared to win that anyone in the country--and I know I will get the money for you.
Think about it.
Do you want to just bet, to just be in action, or do you want to win?
Let me hear from you and be certain to read the articles and ads in this publication to get up to speed as to what is happening in my world of 11-to-10 this week.
And, by the way, I am also crushing the NBA and was the guy who told you last week the Boston Celtics were old, worn out and done. Did that stunning 104-96 home loss to the 6-52 New Jersey Nets confirm my opinion.
Believe me friends, I do my home work and know what I am talking about.
Have a good one.
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