It?s Fish Or Cut Bait Time As College Basketball Regular Season Heads Into Final 10 Days

25-Unit Win On Miami (-5.5) Over Virginia 74-42,
15-Unit
Win On Kansas State (-5.5) Over Texas Tech 83-64
And
10-Unit Win With Illinois (+3.0) Over Michigan 51-44

TOP PERFECT 8-0 NIGHT IN BASKETBALL

 

25-Unit Blindside Your Bookie Game, Plus 15-Unit NBA

Play And 3 More Nationally Televised College Winners

HIGHLIGHT ANOTHER NIGHT OF WINNING EDGES

 

It’s Fish Or Cut Bait Time As College Basketball Regular Season Heads Into Final 10 Days

Horizon League, OVC Playoffs Begin Next Tuesday

 

 

By Kelso Sturgeon

 

It’s all at once crunch time in college basketball and with it suddenly comes new-and-improved teams obviously on a mission to win enough and show enough to get to the NCAA Tournament. Call it the second season when by winning a conference tournament even teams which have not played well this season—even teams with losing records—can force their way into the Big Dance as one of the 65 chosen few.

           
Incentive-driven basketball teams can brighten the lives of their fans, giving them hope in a season that may have looked lost, while presenting to bettors a 50-50 standoff between opportunity and hazards. Complicating the handicapping equation for bettors is that in reality very few teams that have not already established themselves can only hope to get to the second tier National Invitation Tournament, the NCAA’s gathering of losers.

           
There is nothing more important for bettors than to put into perspective the various elements of incentive-driven analysis. The math is sobering, even though it is ignored by those teams looking for a miracle.

           
There are 65 berths open in the NCAA Tournament. Of the 65, 30 will go to winners of the conference tournaments and another to the winner of the regular season Ivy League championship, since the league has no post-season event.

           
That leaves 34 openings for at-large teams and all but 11-12 of those spots will go to teams that have had outstanding seasons, regardless of how they play in the conference tournaments. The reality is that there are but about a dozen teams that will in the end have played for something.

           
There is little room at the top. That is the reality.

 

In And On The Bubble

             

In the major conferences that will get more than the one automatic bid, here is a rundown of the teams that are already in the Big Dance.

 

Atlantic Coast

In:

Duke (23-4)

Maryland (19-7)

Virginia Tech (21-5)

Wake Forest (18-7)

Clemson (19-7)

On The Bubble

Florida State (19-7)

Georgia Tech (18-9

 

Atlantic 10

In:

Richmond (22-6)

Temple (22-5)

Xavier (19-7)

On The Bubble

Saint Louis (18-8)

Charlotte (18-8)

Rhode Island (20-6)

Dayton (18-8)

 

Big 12

In:

Kansas (27-1)

Kansas State (23-4)

Missouri (20-7)

Texas A&M (19-7)

Texas (21-6)

Baylor (20-6)

On The Bubble

Oklahoma State (19-7)

 

Big East

In:

Syracuse (26-2)

Villanova (22-4)

Pittsburgh (21-6)

West Virginia (21-6)

Georgetown (19-7)

On The Bubble

Louisville (18-10)

Marquette (17-9)

Connecticut (17-11)

 

Big Ten

In:

Purdue (23-3)

Michigan State (21-7)

Ohio State (21-7)

Wisconsin (20-7

Illinois (18-10)

On The Bubble

Minnesota (16-10)

 

Missouri Valley

In:

Northern Iowa (24-3)

On The Bubble

Wichita State (22-7)

Illinois State (20-8)

 

Mountain West

In:

New Mexico (26-3)

BYU (25-3)

On The Bubble

San Diego State (20-7)

UNLV (20-7)

 

PAC-10

In:

No one

On The Bubble

California (18-9)

Arizona State (19-8)

Washington (18-9)

 

Southeastern

In:

Kentucky (26-1)

Vanderbilt (20-6)

Tennessee (20-7)

On The Bubble

Florida (20-8)

Mississippi State (19-8)

Mississippi (17-9)

 

           
From the vantage point of the handicapper, it is obvious bubble teams need to keep firing their best shot and, in theory, they should offer us some edge each time they play. While this edge is there, all handicappers need to keep in mind teams that “have” to win don’t have to win.

           
Nobody ever said this game would be easy.

 

Kelso’s College Top 25

 

Most of the 65 teams that make it to the NCAA Tournament will have three things going for them—the won-lost record, their RPI rank and their strength of schedule (SOS).

           
Here is my college Top 25, with record, RPI ranking and strength of schedule rating. For comparison, keep in mind the NCAA provides RPI and SOS rankings on 345 teams. Won-Lost records complete through Tuesday night, February 23.

 

Ranking

Record

RPI Rank

SOS

 

 

 

 

1. Syracuse

26-2

4th

14th

2. Kansas

27-1

1st

20th

3. Kentucky

26-1

5th

46th

4. Duke

23-4

2nd

7th

5. Kansas State

23-4

6th

10th

6. Purdue

23-3

7th

43rd

7. Butler

25-4

18th

73rd

8. Vanderbilt

20-6

13th

15th

9. Pittsburgh

21-6

9th

6th

10.Northern Iowa

24-4

16th

122nd

11. Villanova

22-4

8th

49th

12. West Virginia

21-6

5th

3rd

13. Ohio State

21-7

32nd

62nd

14. Tennessee

20-7

15th

28th

15. BYU

25-3

22nd

148th

16. Maryland

19-7

36th

32nd

17. Virginia Tech

21-5

44th

156th

18. Texas-El Paso

20-5

53rd

133rd

19. New Mexico

26-3

10th

81st

20. Michigan State

21-7

28th

39th

21. Missouri

20-7

39th

63rd

22. Georgetown

19-7

11th

1st

23. Baylor

20-6

17th

21st

24. Temple

22-5

14th

60th

25. Texas A&M

19-7

12th

5th

 

A Look At Last Night’s 8-0 Winning Run

 

 Here are all the games I released last night to my various services, with the commentary that accompanied the games. As I have said many times, there are excellent lessons in handicapping in studying the commentary.

Games Of Tuesday, Feb. 23

Home Team In  CAPS

All Starting Times Eastern

*              *                *                *

NBA BASKETBALL

BEST BETS CLUB

3 Units

Portland Trail Blazers (32-26) -7.5 over NEW JERSEY NETS (5-51)

Prediction: Portland by 11-12

Results

Portland 102, New Jersey 95 (W)

                Comments: This is a big-time bounce-back game for Portland which blew a 25-point third quarter lead against Utah in its last game and lost 93-89 overtime. The game before that, also at home, the Trail Blazers were colder than ice from the field, hitting just 33.8% of their field goals. I look for Portland to bounce quite positively off those losses and open its 5-game road trip with a convincing win over the most embarrassing excuse of an NBA team in memory.

*              *                *                *

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

BEST BETS CLUB

10 Units

Illinois (17-10) +3.0 over MICHIGAN (13-13)

Prediction: Illinois by 6-7

Results

Illinois 51, Michigan 44 (W)

                Comments: Illinois may be the best 17-10 team in the country and knows its needs a win in this spot to keep alive its chances to get to the NCAA Tournament and the figures say the Illini will get it against a Michigan team that is known for one thing—inconsistency and a major lack of offensive fire power. Illinois lost its last two games—at Purdue (23-3), 75-65, and at home to Ohio State (21-7), 72-53, on a night it hit but 34.3% of its field goals—and traditionally comes out of situations such as this ready to get the money. Michigan lost at home to Penn State in its last game, after winning on the road at Iowa and Minnesota.

 

3 Units

COLORADO STATE (15-11) +7.5 over New Mexico (25-3)

Prediction: New Mexico by 3-4

Results

Colorado State 66, New Mexico 72 (W)

                Comments: There is no dispute New Mexico is by far the best team in this one but the Lobos showed in their last game, a narrow 59-56 home win over hapless Air Force, its focus is this Saturday’s showdown game at BYU where the Mountain West Conference championship will be decided. My money says New Mexico which beat Colorado State, 82-64, earlier this season, will still be looking ahead. Colorado State is no world-beater but the Rams are 10-3 at home and will certainly fire up for this one.

*              *                *                *

CHAIRMAN’S CLUB

15 Units

Kansas State (22-4) -5.5 over TEXAS TECH (16-10)

Prediction: Kansas State by 10-11

Results

Kansas State 83, Texas Tech 64 (W)

                Comments: Kansas State, like all other visiting teams to Lubbock, is going to get “homered” tonight but the figures say it won’t make any difference. Kansas State has superior talent, superior coaching, outstanding speed and quickness and a proven road record (10-2). The Wildcats have won five straight, are 6-1 in their last seven games, with the only loss a 2-pointer at home to top-ranked Kansas. This game should be close to the 30-minute point and then the relentless forever pressure Kansas State brings should make the Red Raiders wilt.

*              *                *                *

PERSONAL BEST CLUB

25 Units

MIAMI (17-9) -5.5 over Virginia (14-11)

Prediction: Miami by 11-12

Results

Miami 74, Virginia 62 (W)

                Comments: Virginia opened the season 14-6 and then seemed to fall off the mountain and comes into this game 0-5 in its last five outings and just 3-7 on the road. Miami is in the perfect bounce-back power play spot, coming off an 81-74 home loss to Duke and a 74-66 decision at Clemson. Miami is 11-2 at home this season, has superior talent and has already beaten the likes of Georgia Tech (64-62) and Virginia Tech (82-75) at home this season. In short, the Hurricanes have every single edge in this one.

*              *                *                *

ST. VALENTINE’S PACKAGE

25 Units

MIAMI (17-9) -5.5 over Virginia (14-11)

Prediction: Miami by 11-12

Results

Miami 74, Virginia 62 (W)

                Comments: Virginia opened the season 14-6 and then seemed to fall off the mountain and comes into this game 0-5 in its last five outings and just 3-7 on the road. Miami is in the perfect bounce-back power play spot, coming off an 81-74 home loss to Duke and a 74-66 decision at Clemson. Miami is 11-2 at home this season, has superior talent and has already beaten the likes of Georgia Tech (64-62) and Virginia Tech (82-75) at home this season. In short, the Hurricanes have every single edge in this one.

 

Bonus College Plays

3 Units

Georgetown (18-7) +4 over LOUISVILLE (18-9)

Prediction: Georgetown by 3-4

Results

Georgetown 70, Louisville 60 (W)

                Comments: This game is absolutely dead-even and one can make a very strong case for either team, making taking the 4 a must. As noted above, the figures say Georgetown will win it straight up. The Hoyas certainly will not be in a good speed since they have lost their last two games—at home to Syracuse, 75-71, in their last outing and at Rutgers, 71-68, in the game before that. Those losses certainly will be a driving force in this one.

 

3 Units

FLORIDA (19-8) -2.5 over Tennessee (20-6)

Prediction: Florida by 7-8

Results

Florida 75, Tennessee 62 (W)

                Comments: There are several ways to look at this game, with the first top being at the element of revenge, since Florida won at Tennessee, 61-60, as an 8-point underdog earlier this season. Revenge is always in play in showdown games, which this is, but Florida absolutely needs to keep winning to get to the NCAA Tournament and will come to fire its best shot in this one. My money says that will be enough to get the job done against a Tennessee team that is but 7-5 on the road.

*              *                *                *

FREE FOR THE INTERNET

1 Unit

New Orleans Hornets (30-26) +11.5 over CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (43-14)

Prediction: Cleveland by 6-7

Results

New Orleans 95, Cleveland 105 (W)

*              *                *                *

 

Again I let my record speak for itself. As you see by reading the commentary, winning is never accident. It is the result of hours of hard work each day and in the end teams win for logical reasons. I don’t win them all, and never would say I did, but you can take it to the bank I consistently make money for my clients.

           
If you are not yet a basketball client, get on board and let me give you a taste of what making money is all about.

           
I have a service for that fits your needs, whether you bet $10 or $10,000 per game, and the price is always right. And, yes, I do take all major credit cards.

 

19
Nov
20
Nov

Today’s Hot Plays