Reality Check Time



 

Are You Playing The Role Of The Sucker If You

Keep Betting On North Carolina And Connecticut

And Maybe Even Those Slumping Texas Longhorns?

*              *              *              *

It’s Reality Check Time For College Basketball Bettors

 

Kansas Now Solid 9-5 Favorite To Win NCAA Championship

 

Begin Your Saturday Handicapping Early With Outlaw Line

*              *              *              *

 

50-Unit

PAC-10 Game Of Month Wins Tonight

Plus 25-Unit 2-Team NBA TV Parlay Gets Cash

 

 

By Kelso Sturgeon

 

            Betting basketball in the here and now is the first step in the direction of the winner’s circle. What you see is what you get. All dreams are dead. Reality rules the day—a fact of which we are reminded each time North Carolina and Connecticut, and maybe even Texas, take the court.

            When North Carolina (13-11) lost at home last night to arch-rival Duke, 64-54, it was the Tar Heels’ fourth consecutive loss and its sixth defeat in its last seven games. Just as amazing was the fact it was the team’s fourth straight loss at home—something unheard off, but is just a reflection of the reality of what you see is what you get.

            For bettors the loss to Duke meant the Tar Heels are 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games and the fact that figure is not 4-3 or 3-4 tells you just how blind bettors can be. Sports books still get action on North Carolina every time it takes the court. Maybe the Tar Heels faithful have an unlimited among of money and love to give it to bookmakers?

            North Carolina opened the season 10-1 to win another national championship and before the Duke game you could get 200-1, and only because bookmakers are sometimes as unrealistic in their expectations as are bettors. Offer them at 1,000-1 and it will still not matter. This team is going nowhere.

            For the record, I released Duke (-5.5) over North Carolina last night because the figures predicted a 9-10-point win. This was not the move of a genius but simply the product of understanding that 24 games into the season a team is what it is. North Carolina has no true point guard, an all-around terrible backcourt and carries the mark of the beast—a 2-7 record on the road.

            As noted here many times, a team is what it is when it travels. Any team can win at home; only the good ones win when on the road. If you would like to begin your homework on the next North Carolina game, the outlaw line out of Costa Rica has them a 9-point home favorite over N.C. State Saturday. They beat the Wolf Pack in Raleigh, 77-63, as a 1.5-favorite January 26.

            Connecticut? Oh, where to begin.

            The Connecticut Huskies (14-10), as is North Carolina, a team with a winning tradition and legions of followers who seem to bet on them regardless. The Huskies did get the cover as a 10.5-point underdog last night at Syracuse in a 72-67 loss, leaving them 1-4 straight up (SU) and 1-4 ATS in their last five starts.

            Yet, no wake-up call from bettors who continue to send it in on a Connecticut team that has not come close to living up to pre-season expectations. The Huskies were 18-1 to win the national championship when the season began and are now 100-1. Make them a 1,000-1 too, because they are going nowhere.

            It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out what is wrong with Connecticut—and that is absolutely nothing. They were over-rated when the season began, with their poll rankings based on their history and not the present. It also weighs heavily on my mind the Huskies are just 1-8 on the road this season.

            Connecticut will next take the court Saturday, hosting Cincinnati, a team to which the Huskies lost, 71-69, on the road December 30 as a 2.0-point underdog. For your study, the outlaw line on this game has Connecticut favored by 7.0.

 

Should Bettors Pull Plug On Texas?

 

            When the Texas Longhorns (19-5) opened the season a perfect 7-0, legions of the faithful proclaimed them the second coming of the great UCLA or San Francisco Dons teams of yesteryear. Maybe that was a bit premature, since they are but 1-3 in their last four games and but 2-5 in their last seven. But those are not the killer numbers of this love affair. In their last 11 games, they are 1-10 ATS.

            Covering the number at .09% will destroy all followers.

            The question one must ask about Texas is a simply one—do we pull the plug on the Longhorns right now or take the position that 2-5 mark in their last seven games and there is better yet to come?

            Texas opened the season as an 18-1 choice to win the national championship, is now 12-1 and almost certain to go to 40-1 when the new numbers are posted.

            If you would like to start your early home work on the Longhorns home game this Saturday against Nebraska, the outlaw line on this one is Texas -18.0.

            As for giving up on Texas, my position is that it is a little early but you not find me using the Longhorns in any of my releases over the next two weeks. There are just too many questions. As for you personally, it’s your money and your call.

            The bottom line on reality is simply this: What you see is what you get.

            All teams are what they are right now. Your eyes are not deceiving you.

 

Kansas Now 9-5 Favorite To Win It All

 

            For the record, Kansas (23-1) opened the season as the 13-2 favorite to win the national championship and is now the 9-5 choice to win it all. Kentucky (23-1) is 4-1, followed by Syracuse (24-1) at 5-1, Texas (19-5) 1t 12-1, followed by Villanova (21-2) at 15-1 and West Virginia (19-4) and Purdue (20-3) at 18-1.

            In addition to North Carolina, teams that have taken a dramatic fall in futures wagering include Louisville which opened 10-1 and is now 60-1, Clemson which opened at 40-1 and is now 200-1, Florida which opened 25-1 and is now 100-1, Michigan which opened at 60-1 and is now 1,000-1, and Notre Dame which opened at 40-1 and is now 500-1.

            The longest prices on the board are LSU (60-1 at the open), Washington State (100-1 at the open), Stanford (80-1 at the opening) and Iowa (100-1 at the open) which are all listed at 9,999-1 odds.

            A little something for everyone.

 

The Outlaw Line On Saturday’s College Games

 

            I cannot speak for others but I am always handicapping at least 24 hours in advance for a routine day, but begin each Thursday analyzing the Saturday card which usually offers 100-plus games. I can start two days in advance because I have access to the advance outlaw line out of Costa Rica.

            If you would like to begin to study early this week, here are the outlaw betting lines on Saturday’s more interesting college basketball games, with the home team in CAPS.

 

Saturday’s Outlaw Betting Lines

 

CONNECTICUT -7 over Cincinnati

Michigan State -11 over PENN STATE           

CLEMSON -9 over Miami

DUKE -10 over Maryland

VANDERBILT -18 over LSU

BAYLOR -6 over Missouri

OKLAHOMA STATE -8 over Oklahoma

VILLANOVA -15 over Providence

WISCONSIN -15 over Indiana

Northern Iowa -6 over BRADLEY

TEMPLE -8 over Rhode Island

SAN DIEGO STATE -4 over UNLV

ALABAMA -5 over Arkansas

CALIFORNIA -12 over Washington State

GEORGIA -3 over South Carolina

NORTH CAROLINA -9 over N.C. State

TEXAS -18 over Nebraska

PURDUE -19 over Iowa

TEXAS TECH -2 over Texas A&M

ARIZONA STATE -12 over Oregon

BYU -23 over Air Force

Cornell -8 over PRINCETON

KANSAS STATE -16 over Colorado

FLORIDA -4 over Xavier

TULSA -3 over Memphis

MISSISSIPPI STATE -12 over Auburn

ARIZONA -9 over Oregon State

Washington -2 over STANFORD

UAB -9 over Marshall

KANSAS -20 over Iowa State

VIRGINIA TECH -6 over Virginia

WAKE FOREST -4 over Georgia Tech

MARQUETTE -11 over South Florida

KENTUCKY -12 over Tennessee

 

            When the official betting lines for all of Saturday’s games (and this is just a partial listing) may vary a bit from these numbers but not much.

*              *              *              *

 

Here Is Tonight’s Basketball Service Schedule

 

50-Unit PAC-10 Game Of Week

Wins Tonight

Just $50

Charged To Your Major Credit Card

 

Available On This Site

And Toll Free At

1-800-755-2255

 

            I have won my last two 25-unit college basketball plays and tonight am stepping up the pace and releasing a 50-unit play which is my PAC-10 Game of the Month. There are four PAC-10 games on the schedule tonight and just one of them grades out at the 50-unit level. For the record, I cashed with a 25-unit play last night on Texas-El Paso (-3.5) in its 62-51 win over SMU and that followed a 25-unit winner the night before on Wake Forest (-6.0) in its victory over Boston College, 92-85. Win tonight’s 50-unit PAC-10 Game of the Week For Just $50, charged to your major credit card.

*              *              *              *

 

25-Unit NBA

TV Parlay Wins Again Tonight

Just $25

Charged To Your Major Credit Card

 

Available On This Site

And Toll Free At

1-800-755-2255

 

            There are just two NBA games on the schedule—both of them televised nationally on TNT—and I again releasing them in a 2-team, 25-unit parlay. Tonight’s plays will be a 10-unit play on the Orlando Magic (36-17) at the Cleveland Cavaliers (42-11), a 10-unit play on the San Antonio Spurs (29-21) at the Denver Nuggets (35-17) and then a 5-unit parlay on both winners. For the record I am 20-7 in my last 27 NBA releases. Win the parlay tonight for just $25, charged to your major credit card.

*              *              *              *

 

Nationally Televised

Michigan at Minnesota

Tops 3-0 Best Bets Club Plays Night

Just $25

Charged To Your Major Credit Card

 

Available On This Site

And Toll Free At

1-800-755-2255

 

 

            The nationally televised Big Ten showdown that finds Michigan at Minnesota tops another 3-0 night in college basketball. Get this 5-unit game, plus two other best bet plays, for just $25, charged to your major credit card. For the record, I am 5-2 the past two days with my Best Bet Club releases.

           

18
Aug
19
Aug

Today’s Hot Plays