BREEDERS’ CUP CAPSULES Tuesday, 10/24 PART 2

Continuing today and on these pages until the Breeders’ Cup on Friday, Nov. 3 and Saturday, Nov. 4 we will take a look in capsule form of the thirteen 2017 Races.

STACKED BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE COULD HAVE LARGEST AND DEEPEST FIELD IN YEARS

Pre-entries will be taken this week for the Breeders’ Cup Races (Friday, November 3 and Saturday, November 4 at Del Mar) and if those runners that appear to be legitimate contenders all go in the BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE on Friday, we should not only see the largest field (13 are under consideration after an average field of 10 over the last 7 years) since 12 went to the post in 2010 when longshot DAKOTA PHONE paid $77.40.

We should also see a deep field as the race appears devoid of a dominant runner such as LIAM’S MAP in 2015 or GOLDENCENTS who won back-to-back in 2013 and 2014.

There has been little middle ground in the results over the course of the last 7 years.

2016 – Tamarkuz – WIN $25.80…Gun Runner – 2nd Ex. $100.40…Accelerate – 3rd Tri. $2,135.20…Dortmund – 4th Super $5,278.00
2015 – Liam’s Map – WIN $3.00…Lea – 2nd Ex. $12.20…Red Vine – 3rd Tri. $40.80…Wicked Strong – 4th Super $308.40
2014 – Goldencents – WIN $3.40…Tapiture – 2nd Ex. $14.20…Pants On Fire – 3rd Tri. $71.00…Bronzo – 4th Super $657.80
2013 – Goldencents – WIN $9.80…Golden Ticket – 2nd Ex. $69.80…Brujo De Olleros – 3rd Tri. 444.40…Verrazano – 4th Super $1,667.20
2012 – Tapizar – WIN $32.60…Rail Trip – 2nd Ex. $245.60…Delegation – 3rd Tri. $3,901.40…John Scott – 4th Super $24,952.80
2011 – Caleb’s Posse – WIN $15.80…Shackleford – 2nd Ex. $112.80…Tres Borrachos – 3rd Tri. $2,220.80…Trappe Shot – 4th Super $10.170.20
2010 – Dakota Phone – WIN $77.40…Morning Line – 2nd Ex. $816.20…Gayego – 3rd Tri. $6.633.80…Cool Coal man – 4th Super $73,767.60

Now that you’ve seen the short and long of the results, let’s look at why this particular race is indicative of how much work goes into handicapping these Breeders’ Cup Races.

For those who say that any Breeders’ Cup race is just another betting race, I would politely say you could not be further from reality.

Most races at most race tracks present the continuity which stems from the conditions of an individual race for the most part drawing contenders from the grounds, from similar class and distance, from similar trainers and jockeys working through similar patterns revealed in a common draw past performance data pool.

Nothing comes close to this during the Breeders’ Cup and the DIRT MILE is a prime example of what I am getting at.

What training methods, what time between races, which local, what last out prep, what distance, what trainer? Even these parameters send a handicapper off in every direction.

All we need do is look at the top 4 finishers in each of the last 7 years and once again we’ll see just why there are NO SHORTCUTS to handicapping AND WINNING these races.

Listed are the horse, last out race, track and distance, how long between races, where the horse finished and trainer. And in parentheses below each listing is how the horses were bet in the BC DIRT MILE.)

2016
Tamarkuz – Kelso H. (Bel) – 1 M – 4 Weeks – 2nd – K. McLaughlin
Gun Runner – Pennsylvania Derby (PARX) – 1 1/8M -  6 Weeks – 2nd - S. Asmussen
Accelerate – Los Alamitos Derby (LA) – 1 1/8M – 6 Weeks – Won – J. Sadler
Dortmund – Awesome Again S. (SA) – 1 1/8M – 5 Weeks – 2nd – B. Baffert
(5th F , 2nd F, 8th F, Favorite)

2015
Liam’s Map – Woodward S. (Sar) – 1 1/8M – 8 Weeks – Won – T. Pletcher
Lea – Woodbine Mile (T) – (WB) – 1M – 7 Weeks – 2nd – B. Mott
Red Vine – Kelso H. (Bel) – 1M – 4 Weeks – 2nd – C. Clement
Wicked Strong – Jockey Club Gold Cup – 1 1/4M – 4 Weeks – 2nd – J. Jerkens
(Favorite, 2nd F, 3rd F, 4th F)

2014
Goldencents – Santa Anita Sprint S. (SA) – 6F – 4 Weeks – 2nd – M. Leandro/D. O’Neill
Tapiture – Pennsylvania Derby (PARX) – 1 1/8M – 6 Weeks – 2nd – S. Asmussen
Pants On Fire – Wild & Wonderful S. (CT) – 7F – 6 Weeks – Won – K. Breen
Bronzo – Arg. De Palermos S. (Hippodromo) – 1 1/4M – 7 Months – 4th – J.A. Inda
(Favorite, 2nd F, 3rd F, 8th F)

2013
Goldencents - Santa Anita Sprint S. (SA) – 6F – 4 Weeks – 2nd – D. O’Neill
Golden Ticket – Awesome Again S. (SA) – 1 1/8M – 5 Weeks – 4th – K. McPeek
Brujo De Olleros – Kelso H. (Bel) – 1M – 4 Weeks – 2nd – R. Mettee
Verrazano – Travers S. (Sar) – 1 1/4M – 10 Weeks – 7th – T. Pletcher
(2nd F, 4th F, 3rd F, Favorite)

2012
Tapizar – Kelso H. (Bel) – 1M – 4 Weeks – 7th – S. Asmussen
Rail Trip – Awesome Again S. (SA) – 1 1/8M – 5 Weeks – 4th – R. Ellis
Delegation – Durham Cup S. (WB) – 1 1/8M – 3 Weeks – Won – M. Casse
John Scott – Lava Man Cup S. (SA) – 1 1/16M – 3 Weeks – 3rd – C. Gaines
(7th F, 5thF, 8th F, 6th F)

2011
Caleb’s Posse – Ind. Derby (Hoosier) – 1 1/16M – 5 Weeks – 3rd – D. Von Hemmel
Shackleford - Ind. Derby (Hoosier) – 1 1/16M – 5 Weeks – 2nd – D. Romans
Tres Borraches – Goodwood S. (SA) – 1 1/8M – 5 Weeks – 5th – M. Jones
Trappe Shot – Vosburgh S. (Bel) – 6F – 5 Weeks – 4th – K. McLaughlin
(4th F, 3rd F, 9th F, 2nd F)

2010
Dakota Phone – Goodwood S. (OTH) – 1 1/8M – 5 Weeks – 3rd – J. Hollendorfer
Morning Line – Pennsylvania Derby (PARX) – 1 1/8M – 6 Weeks – Won – N. Zito
Gayego – Presque Isle Mile S. (PID) – 1M – 8 Weeks – Won – S. Bin Suroor
Cool Coal Man – Kelso H. (Bel) – 1M – 5 Weeks – 2nd – N. Zito
(12th F, 6th F, 3rd F, 11th F)

Few trends, few angles, few trainer standards. That is why there is so much more to this than is in the Past Performances. Workouts, is the horse peaking, can he handle the surface (8 of the 13 prospective runners have raced over the surface, with 7 of them having at least one win at Del Mar so you can’t find an edge there), what will be the structure of the race, will those shortening up prompt a strong pace, will sprinters stretching out be stalkers and closers?

It is the handicapper who has seen all the scenarios that will construct the winning tickets for this complicated race.

I hope to make things easier for you.

 

 

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