The Toteboard Does Not Tip Live Juveniles

DON'T BELIEVE THE CARELESS TALKING HEADS...THE TOTEBOARD DOES NOT TIP LIVE JUVENILES
And Other Baby Bathwaters That Should Be Thrown Out

It is very likely that when it comes to wagering on Juvenile Maiden Races at Saratoga there is one adage that is repeated ad-nausea and statistically speaking could not be more in error.

This is an adage and conversation the public which pounds the macadam and the "sharps" that sit in the grandstand and clubhouse repeat endlessly.

"There is no way to bet juvenile maidens. The information does not exist. If you must wager on them, follow the tote board!"

There might be a few more financially debilitating recommendations out there, but not too many.

In today's article we are going to show you the three most productive types of races to become involved in. Remember, the word VALUE is thrown around with a tone of certainty, until of course the one using the term is asked to define exactly what they men by VALUE.

Today, we will use statistical data that not only shows you why you should not follow the tote-board as a means of wagering on juvenile maidens but will also give you an idea of exactly how you should approach the idea of VALUE.

Let's begin by producing the overall Percentage Results and average WIN, EXACTA and TRIFECTA Payoffs for ALL Races at Saratoga since the beginning of the meet through Sunday 8/14.

WINNING FAVORITES - 39.6%
AVERAGE WIN PAYOFF - $12.36
AVERAGE EXACTA PAYOFF - $86.28
AVERAGE TRIFECTA PAYOFF - $514.60

Keep those numbers in mind because should the idea that there is some kind of "smart money" backing live juvenile maidens at Saratoga you would expect the results of those maiden races to be equal to or even less than the overall numbers. Nothing could statistically further from reality.

Through Friday, August 12 when we compiled statistics. There had been a total of 25 juvenile maiden races run at Saratoga. The numbers as compared to the overall numbers are as follows:

WINNING FAVORITES - 36.0%
AVERAGE WIN PAYOFF - $17.93 ($5.57 higher and an incredible 31% better R.O.I. per $2 Bet than the overall average.)
AVERAGE EXACTA PAYOFF - $123.91 (That's $37.63 more per $2 wager than the overall average,)
AVERAGE TRIFECTA PAYOFF - $608.92 (That in turn is $94.32 more per $2 wager than the average.)

We can't convinced you to wager on juvenile maiden races simply because there is what can only be described as VALUE in those results, but these results should dissuade you of the questionable follow-the-tote advice. On the other hand, if you have had success, as we have, by utilizing trainer prep trends, breeding tendencies based on distance and surface and other angles you are in good stead when it comes to said VALUE.

Before we exit the page let's take a look at two other types of races where comparison of actual results vs the overall percentage and payoff results of these two types also provides VALUE.
First let's revisit the Overall Percentages and Averages.

WINNING FAVORITES - 39.6%
AVERAGE WIN PAYOFF - $12.36
AVERAGE EXACTA PAYOFF - $86.28
AVERAGE TRIFECTA PAYOFF - $514.60

Now let's look at two more VALUE PAYOFF type results.

(For 5½ Furlong Turf Races - 26 Races)
WINNING FAVORITES - 32.3%
AVERAGE WIN PAYOFF - $14.92
AVERAGE EXACTA PAYOFF - $122.57
AVERAGE TRIFECTA PAYOFF - $760.10

(For Two Turn Turf Races - 55 Races Win & Exacta - 54 Races Trifecta)
WINNING FAVORITES - 34.5%
AVERAGE WIN PAYOFF - $14.25
AVERAGE EXACTA PAYOFF - $116.95
AVERAGE TRIFECTA PAYOFF - $866.60

Obviously this data does not dictate that every juvenile maiden race, every 5½ furlong turf race and every two turn turf race is a play. What the data does allow is that should you be drawn, for the right handicapping reasons to one of these races, you are definitely involved in a potential VALUE plays.

22
Aug

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