Saratoga Overview Part I: Shippers

Saratoga Overview

By Jim Hurley

You can look at the calendar and wonder why you are reading an article on the 2014 Saratoga Race Meet when it is still over 6 weeks away…or you can be grateful that with so much information available to help make this year’s meet the best ever IT IS NEVER TO EARLY to begin discussing all the INTRICATE ANGLES, TRENDS and HISTORICAL DATA that most Spa Bettors never consider…the Angles, Trends and Historical Data that will change your wagering fortunes.

Each Friday over the course of the next 6 weeks we will publish a distinct OVERVIEW ARTICLE that reveals factors most bettors never even consider…factors that separate the 10% that win from the 90% that lose. We suggest you join us every week for this invaluable information!

PART I
Friday, June 13

GRAVEYARD OF FAVORITES OR BIRTH SITE OF BIG SHIPPER PAYOFFS?
In our first of a series of Saratoga Preview/Overview articles we are going to take a look at how Shippers into Saratoga performed last year.

Below you will find the tracks from which the horses shipped, how many horses from each of those tracks ran and how they paid off in terms of number of winners and the return on investment based on a $2 wager on each horse. We’ll also identify how many winning favorites there were from each track and how many beaten favorites.

In the process of compiling the data we ignored 2-year old races (too many first time starters) and the steeplechase races (for obvious reasons.) And though every horse running at Saratoga is technically a shipper in their first 2014 race over one of the courses, for the purpose of identifying the performance of shipper in 2013 we DO NOT consider last out Belmont, Aqueduct or Saratoga from the prior year to be shippers.

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The data below is not in way an absolute but you should keep it handy when attempting to figure the impact of shippers when you are struggling with their past performances.

NOTE: As you go through the statistics keep in mind that the tracks listed are in order of how many winning horses shipped in, from most to least, but the actual performance statistics will show the R.O.I., percentage of winners, highest price payers, average mutuel price for the winners as well as the number of winning favorites and beaten favorites.

Churchill Downs
145 Starters —20 Winners —13.4%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $157.00 —Highest Payer $19.80
Average Win Payout $7.85…R.O.I. $1.08
18 Beaten Favorites…9 Winning Favorites

Monmouth Park
105 Starters —18 Winners —17.1%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $232.30 —Highest Payer $71.50
Average Win Payout $12.91…R.O.I. $2.21
9 Beaten Favorites…7 Winning Favorites

Delaware Park
39 Starters —8 Winners —20.5%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $273.40 —Highest Payer $141.50
Average Win Payout $34.18…R.O.I. $7.01
1 Beaten Favorite…1 Winning favorite

Parx
37 Starters —5 Winners —13.5%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $65.20 —Highest Payer $45.20
Average Win Payout $13.04…R.O.I. $1.76
6 Beaten Favorites…3 Winning Favorites


Woodbine

12 Starters —5 Winners —41.7%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $44.10 —Highest Payer $12.60
Average Win Payout $8.82…R.O.I. $3.68
0 Beaten Favorites…1 Winning Favorite

Gulfstream Park
33 Starters —4 Winners —12.1%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $47.30 —Highest Payer $25.20
Average Win Payout $11.83…R.O.I. $1.43
3 Beaten favorites…2 Winning Favorites


Colonial Downs

29 Starters —4 Winners —13.8%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $65.90 —Highest Payer $30.40
Average Win Payout $16.48…R.O.I. $2.27
1 Beaten Favorite…1 Winning Favorite

Arlington Park
18 Starters —2 Winners —11.1%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $19.00 —Highest Payer $12.60
Average Win Payout $9.50…R.O.I $1.06
1 Beaten Favorite…0 Winning Favorites

Calder
15 Starters —2 Winners —13.3%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $14.60 —Highest payer $8.30
Average Win Payout $7.30…R.O.I. $0.97
1 Beaten favorite…0 Winning Favorites


Pimlico

12 Starters —2 Winners —16.7%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $10.20 —Highest Payer $5.50
Average Win Payout $5.10…R.O.I. $0.85
0 Beaten Favorites…2 Winning Favorites

Southern California—SA-DMR-HOLLY
18 Starters —1 Winner - 5.6%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet —$5.60 —Highest Payer $5.60
Average Win Payout $5.60…R.O.I. $0.31
7 Beaten Favorites…1 Winning Favorite

Presque Isle Downs
15 Starters —1 Winner —6.7%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $15.20 —Highest payer $15.20
Average Win Payout $15.20…R.O.I. $1.01
1 Beaten Favorite…0 Winning Favorites

Indiana Downs
12 Starters —1 Winner —8.3%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $12.20 —Highest Payer $12.20
Average Win Payout $12.20…R.O.I. $1.02
2 Beaten Favorites…0 Winning Favorites


Ellis Park

8 Starters —1 Winner —12.5%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet - $18.40 —Highest Payer $18.40
Average Win Payout $18.40…R.O.I. $2.30
0 Beaten Favorites…0 Winning Favorites

Tampa Bay
4 Starters —1 Winner —25%
Total Return Of Winners On $2 Bet —$13.00 —Highest Payer $13.00
Average Win Payout $13.00…R.O.I. $3.25
0 Beaten Favorites…0 Winning Favorites

NOTE: The remainder of the tracks listed below produced NO WINNERS. The only necessary data are the number of horses that started and the number of Beaten Favorites if any.

Finger Lakers—25 (2 Beaten Favorites)
Keeneland —9
Prairie Meadows—7
Penn National—6 (1 Beaten Favorite)
Oaklawn—6 (1 Beaten Favorite)
Suffolk Downs—5
Fair Grounds—5
Mountaineer - 4 —(2 Beaten Favorites)
Laurel —4
Remington —1
Charlestown—1
Delta Downs—1
Louisiana Downs—1
Evenageline Downs —1
Canterbury—1

NOTE: We’ll return next Friday with PART II…a look at the results of 2-year olds…including odds, percentage of favorites, leading juvenile trainers by percentage and R.O.I. and jockeys by the same measure. The following week we’ll begin our two-part examination of Turf Racing. In the mean time, make sure you get with Jim Hurley's Racing Network® every racing days for a full stable of winners!

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