Horses to Watch, Week Ending 11-24

HORSES TO WATCH

Week Ending Sunday, November 24

The horses listed below ran well enough in their most recent races to indicate that they are sitting on solid future performances. Bet them under the terms listed at least twice or until they win and then drop.

NOTE: Keep in mind that racing at Churchill ends in two weeks and many of the horses will switch to the Polytrack (synthetic) surface at Turfway Park. The Fair Grounds meet is now open (first three days included in this document) and some of the Kentucky barns will ship some of their horses there. In New York the Aqueduct main track meet will run until early December, after which they move to the all-weather Inner Dirt Track. These HTW documents will take these moves into consideration. Also of importance is that Gulfstream Park will move to their full week schedule commencing November 30 so keep in mind that a number of high profile barns move horses from New York and Kentucky to Florida over the winter so until HTW starts following Gulfstream check the entries to see if any of the Aqueduct or Churchill runners show up there in the early weeks of full time racing.

(Last Week’s Horses To Watch Runners)

Aqueduct

TUMMEL – OUT - Once again flashed speed, got to the front and weakened to fourth in sub-par effort. Drop from list.
LIQUIDITY TRAP – WON $9.90 – Dropped a head decision but was legitimately put in the winner’s circle following being bumped in stretch by eventual winner.
FOURSEVENTEEN – WON $10.60…After surging to the lead and just getting nailed two back when dropped to the 16K level the Phil Serpe trainee got a better timed ride and grabbed the front late.
BAKKAN – WON $2.80 – As suggested, ran back to his smart maiden win prior and won for fun at short price.

Churchill

CHINCHERO – OUT – It was her second race in the HTW sequence and she ran out of suggested conditions when she pressed the early pace in an 8 ½ furlong turf starter allowance and came up a bit empty in the lane. Still like her going one turn on main track, especially if she runs back on the synthetic at Turfway Park with no excuses…drop from list.

SQUADRON A – 2nd $3.40 PLACE – Was caught 5 wide the entire way in rapidly run 7 furlong allowance try and continued rally to get the place. Deserves another chance vs the same.

COOKIE – WON $5.80 – After missing by a head in her first attempt vs entry level allowance race when put on the HTWE list she bounced back to conquer the same group in last.

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AQUEDUCT

NOTE – Only 4 racing days Last Week due to bad weather cancellation of Sunday’s card.

ALPACA FINAThis Big Brown juvenile filly won her career debut vs 50K maiden claimers and was haltered out of that race by current conditioner David Jacobson. She next faced rivals in the 100K Sharp cat Stakes and ran a respectable third before dropping back to run away from entry level allowance foes by 6 ¼ lengths in 6 furlong sprint last time. She should be able to handle the next condition and is also bred for turf so might be sent to Florida by the connections. Follow closely.

CROSS GATE – Following a steady diet of turf tests for three different barns from April through October, trainer Rudy Rodriguez, who claimed the 4-year old three races back, returned him to the main track vs 12.K claimers in last and the son of Johannesburg won in hand as the favorite in the 6 furlong sprint. Of note is the fact that the gelding handled the IDT last winter and should get another win soon if kept at the same level or vs slightly better.

ELECTRIC CURRENCYThe NYSB juvenile colt turned in a promising effort in his debut in most recent. The son of Exchange Rate broke in mid-pack in the 35K maiden claimer, was asked for run at the 5/16ths pole in the 6 furlong dash and willingly rallied 4 wide to get the place in the nine horse field. He was haltered by new conditioner Linda Rice and won’t be a maiden long.

FROST JORDAN – Solid MSW debit in last bodes well for this juvenile colt. The NYSB son of Frost Giant was in hand in mid-pack down the backstretch in the 5 ½ furlong test, moved 3 wide at the top of the lane, moved a bit wider to get position as they drove for home and missed by a neck while 4 clear of the show horse. Look for the Michael Hushion trainee to beat similar level or slightly better restricted foes next time.

MOMENTS NOTIZ – The 5-year old claimer shipped in from Indian following a successful spring through early fall campaign on that circuit and easily dispatched 12.5K claimers for new trainer David Jacobson. The gelding was close up out of the gate made a move from between rivals at the quarter pole and was ridden out in 1:09 2/5 for 6 panels. He has always shown good pressing and finishing speed and should be considered a repeat fixture in these claiming/starter events that are prevalent in NY during the winter meet.

SAMRAAT – The juvenile son of Noble Causeway could be a good one. The Richard Violette trainee is now 2 for 2 after breaking his maiden vs restricted NYSB rivals in easy wire-to-wire fashion at 6 panels and then dispatching 6 rival peers by widening lengths in a 7 ½ furlong entry level allowance. He’s bred to race farther and also on turf so follow closely here in New York if he runs on dirt vs stakes foes or if the connections ship to GP to test open company.

SUN AND MOONThe juvenile daughter of El Corredor took another step forward in career start number two in most recent and was probably best but for a bad break at the start of the 5 ½ furlong MSW event. After that bump at the break the Carlos Martin trainee waited along the inside until the 5/16ths pole, moved 4 wide into the lane and missed by a neck while 2 ¾ lengths clear of the favored show runner. Breaks through next time.

TRAIL BLAZE – The juvenile son of Indian Charlie made his debut in a MSW race that was stocked with well-bred runners from high profile barns in his last and his easy 4 ¾ length triumph was an understatement. The Todd Pletcher trained colt stalked the early pace in the 5 ½ furlong event, went to the leader when asked, quickly drew clear under mild urging and was under similar restraint late. He could have won by much more if pushed. Goes through conditions and more soon…plus looks like the kind of high hopes runner that will head south so check Gulfstream entries as well.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

BE WELLAfter rallying for the place in his career debut, this MSW juvenile colt broke through in career start number two in last. The Steve Margolis trainee tracked the pace from mid-pack and closed well in his debut and in his winner last time out the son of Harlan’s Holiday ran a similar tracking race but was much more powerful through the lane as he drew off despite being steadied at the 7/16ths marker in the 6 furlong test. He is breed to longer so the connections have plenty of options with what appears to be a good first try allowance winner.

CHINCHERO – Previously on the HTW list as a one turn main track candidate she finished fourth two back when above suggested levels and claimed out of that race by current conditioner Paul McGee. In her most recent she went two turns on grass in a 16K starter allowance, pressed the pace to the furlong marker in the mile and a sixteenth test and gave way. She should grab her next win if shortened back up to one turn vs starter allowance foes or 20K to 30K open claimers…especially over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park.

GEOTHERMAL – Although the 4-year old colt has only won one of twelve races in his career his second sprinting vs 30K claimers on dirt in most recent indicates that if kept at that level and on the surface he should grab career win number two soon. His best speed figures have been vs slightly better and his sharp rally from 11th of 12 going 7 furlongs last time is a sign that he is ready to break through soon vs NW2L foes. Bet him back under those conditions.

JIMMY SIMMS – In a 40K open claimer that came off the turf this 8-year old gelding easily handled his rivals in the mile and a sixteenth test. The Steve Asmussen trainee was making his first start since early January, flashed good pressing speed and took over at the 5/16ths pole before drawing away through the lane. The son of Lost Soldier has also handled upper level rivals on synthetic and grass so should carry the good form forward vs the same or slightly better at Turfway or Gulfstream.

MILL CREEK – Trainer Bill Mott (6% with debut MSW runners) seldom has them fully cranked at first asking so the solid backing (sent off as the favorite) and strong second place finish in debut by the juvenile son of Medaglia d’Oro suggests good things to follow. The colt was outrun early in the mile event, ran comfortably while off the rail, angled out in the lane and closed well to miss by a head whiule 6 ½ lengths clear of the show horse. Breaks through in next, most likely at Gulfstream Park. Follow closely.

SHANON NICOLE – This juvenile turf filly was overmatched two back when she faced Grade III foes in the Jessamine Stakes straight of a maiden victory. Dropped back into an entry level allowance test last time the daughter of hot young sire Majestic Warrior broke at the back of the field after stumbling at the start of the 8 ½ furlong run, settled patiently until the half mile pole when she angled out for her drive. She was then blocked in the upper stretch and had to wait until the winner passed her before moving out again and rallying to miss by a head. She was much the best and eclipses the level with a smooth trip.

SWEET DADDY – The juvenile son of Scat Daddy appears to have a decent enough future on the turf if his last is any indication. The Tom Amoss colt broke right with the leader in the mile non-winners of two lifetime event took over when asked and withstood all challenges through the lane. He now has two wins and a third (that coming in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at KD right after his maiden breaker) and should be able to handle the second level if kept on grass. Look for him to ship to Florida and Gulfstream Park.

TARPY’S SURPRISE – In his first start around two turns and only the third of his career in last the son of Into Mischief gave every indication he’ll quickly make up for lost time. The 3-year old colt ran evenly in a pair of sprints to begin his racing life but when trainer Dale Romans stretched him out to 8 ½ panels for his MSW tally he moved with the pace setter early on, struck the front at the top of the lane and won off by 3 ½ lengths. It looks as though the light has gone on. Bet him right back vs. winners.

UPGRADE – The 6-year old gelding tested third level allowance/optional 80K claimers in last and continued to confirm his good form with a solid placing behind the 4-5 favorite in the 6 furlong main track event. Claimed two back for 40K by current trainer Michael Tomlinson the son of Saint Liam was on the pace from the start, kept up the pressure while 4 wide and missed by less than a length. Of note is that he has performed well on both synthetic and turf so should be a next out winner vs the same at Turfway or if Tomlinson takes him to Gulfstream.

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