Horses to Watch, Week Ending 11-17

HORSES TO WATCH

Week Ending Sunday, November 17

The horses listed below ran well enough in their most recent races to indicate that they are sitting on solid future performances. Bet them under the terms listed at least twice or until they win and then drop.

NOTE: Keep in mind that racing at Churchill ends in two weeks and many of the horses will switch to the Polytrack (synthetic) surface at Turfway Park. The Fair Grounds meet opens on 11/22 and some of the Kentucky barns will ship some of their horses there. In New York, the Aqueduct main track meet will run until early December, after which they move to the all-weather Inner Dirt Track. These HTW documents will take these moves into consideration. Also of importance is that Gulfstream Park will move to their full week schedule commencing November 30 so keep in mind that a number of high profile barns move horses from New York to Florida over the winter so until HTW follows Gulfstream check the entries to see if any of the Aqueduct runners go next out there.

(Last Week’s Horses To Watch Runners)

Aqueduct

PATENT – WON $14.60…As suggested the juvenile MSW son of A.P. Indy just needed to get back on the grass and get a contested enough pace and clean trip.
ULTIMATE SHOPPER – 2ND - $2.60 Place – Was in good position to take over in most recent entry level allowance/optional 25K claiming sprint when interfered with by DQ’d winner. Deserves second chance vs same.
VIVA ALLEGIANCE – WON $4.40…After a pair of slightly compromised trips the Proud Citizen filly was an easy winner vs mid-level claimers first time out for Jacobson.

Churchill

HOMEBOYKRIS – WON $7.40…In second off the Mike Maker claim the veteran finally finished his rally as he got a clean trip and added ground when stretched out from 6 furlongs to a mile.

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AQUEDUCT

BET THE POWER – In his most recent the 5-year old ran a bang up second first off a David Jacobson claim. Stepped up to face second level allowance foes for the optional claiming price of 62.5K the son of Albert The Great tracked 3 wide in mid-pack, had to move 5 wide for the rally and secured the place in the final jumps in the 6 furlong dash. The gelding was haltered once again, this time by high percentage reins-man John Terranova so bears watching.

FEE AND SUGAR – The NYSB MSW filly turned in another improved effort in career start number three in most recent and looks ready to break through. The daughter of Northern Afleet stretched out to a mile two back and raced evenly in the lane after getting off the inside. Last time the Dominick Schettino trainee got off a step slow in the mile test, race along the inside at the back until the quarter pole and angled 3 wide to pass all but the winner. Beats restricted foes in next.

HARPOON – The juvenile son of Tapit finished a close up second for the third straight time in a 3 race career when the MSW runner was beaten by his Todd Pletcher trained stable mate in most recent. The colt bobbled at the break, rushed up to gain the lead in the mile test and held the place well clear of the show horse after being caught in the final jumps. It’s his turn next time…stay with him.

HEIR TO DARE – The 5-year old mare bobbled at the break in 6 furlong test in most recent and failed to utilize her sharp speed. Nonetheless she chased the pace, came 3 wide and rallied for the place in the second level allowance/optional 62.5K claimer. To eclipse tis level all the Dominick Galluscio trainee needs is a good break. Stay with her.

HOUSE ON TOILSOME – In her last the 5-year old Lion Heart mare chased a soft pace in a short field and did well to get the place in the 6 furlong sprint. Better suited to a bit more ground and lesser than she faced in the entry level allowance/50K starter and having already shown that she can handle the IDT she should be followed closely, especially if she is sent a mile or a mile seventy around two turns over that surface.

KATIE’S GARDEN – The juvenile daughter of Elusive Quality tracked and almost caught the 2-5 winner in her most recent, falling ¾ of a length short in the 6 ½ furlong MSW event. The John Shirreffs trainee has turned in two solid efforts to begin her career, was 4 lengths clear of the show finisher in last and figures to get her first career win next time.

MERRY MEADOW – The daughter of Henny Hughes was much the best in recent entry level allowance/25K starter sprint but was DQ’d to third for interference at the sixteenth pole. The Mark Henning trainee has hit the board in 9 straight (2-5-2) using pace setting or pace pressing speed each time. The bad news is the disqualification was questionable at best but the good news is she proved she can dominate at the level…and does so next time.

MIGHTY IAN – Now in the barn of red hot trainer Rudy Rodriguez following a 25K claim three back the lightly raced son of Bellamy Road made it two straight daylight victories in last. The 3-year old gelding prompted the pace in the entry level allowance/optional 35K claiming starter, took over at the half mile pole and drew out in the mile event. He’s in good form right now and should have little difficulty surpassing the next level.

MONEY ONLY – A sharp effort off the layoff almost got the win for this PARX shipper in most recent. The Steve Asmussen trained son of Malibu Moon raced towards the back from his rail post in the early going, began a steady advance at the quarter pole in the 6 furlong dash and was beaten just a half length by the drop down 3-2 favorite. The 4-year old gelding grabbed the place spot and should do well for new conditioner Robert Barbara who claimed him for 12.5K.

PRECIOUS METAL – The 5-year old gelding has been holding good form of late and was claimed out of his most recent, a good second vs. restricted NYSB entry allowance/optional 14K claimers. The son of Silver Train had two wins and a second in five races when in the Rudy Rodriguez barn, three of which were against open 16K to 25K platers so new trainer Chris Englehart has plenty of options. Back him sprinting in the same NYSB conditions or against mid-level open claimers.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

BAYHEADAfter his charge broke his maiden vs 15K claimers three back trainer Phillip Oliver tested tough allowance foes two back and got a relatively decent effort considering the opposition. Back in vs open 15K platers in his last the son of Corinthian was all business as he tracked the early pace in the mile even, made his move at the top of the lane and won off by 10 lengths. He was claimed out of that race by under-0the-radr conditioner Troy Newton and can win back vs the same or one notch better.

BELLARMINE – After a series of tries over sloppy and turf ovals against significantly better trainer Ken McPeek returned the son of Magna Graduate to the fast main track and against slightly less class rivals and got instant results. The 3-year old colt settled just off the early pace in the mile 50K claimer, made a 4 wide move into the lane and drew off under a hand ride. With 3 wins and a second from 5 fast main track starts (has also won on synthetic) he now bears watching vs the same or slightly better.

COBRA KISS – The low level claiming filly showed good speed and dug in to hold the show spot in last when making her first start since May. The Martin Rouck trained daughter of Catienus is a committed front runner and she did get a lead at the quarter pole of the 6 furlong 7.5K dash before giving way grudgingly at 48-1. You won’t get that big a number net time but she’ll still present value sprinting vs the same and has shown a fondness for Turfway. Follow closely.

COLD FACTS – In his most recent the son of Yes It’s True made his first start since May and after breaking at the rear of an 8 horse field rallied well for the place. The 4-year old gelding tested a relatively tough group of 50K claimers in the 6 furlong NW2L sprint and was haltered by Randy Morse. Look for him to improve off the effort and corral career win number two soon.

DIVINE VIEW – The Larry Jones trained juvenile made his debut a winning one as he took command when asked and drew of in the lane in the 6 ½ furlong MSW event. The son of Divine Park was taken back early after being bumped at the break, while 4 wide went after the leaders when asked and continued to open up late in a very mature fashion for a one race runner. Won’t be long getting his second career win so bet him right back.

LA MALAGUANA – The 4-year old filly was caught in traffic on the first turn when facing open 25K claimers in most recent and although no one was besting the 4-5 winning favorite she did well to get the place. Most comfortable coming off the pace she had little chance against slow fractions but continued well to edge the second favorite in the 8 ½ furlong event. The ultra consistent runner (18-4-4-4) figures to hold form and beat the same soon.

PRETTYGOOD AND METhe bottom level claiming filly was strung 5 wide in 6 furlong sprint in most recent and fought hard for position before weakening in the final stages. She was claimed out of the race by Garry Sims and has shown enough speed at the level to encourage backing next time out of kept at 5K to 7.5K.

PURE SOVEREIGNTY – In his first try since moving to the barn of 29% trainer Chris Richard the 5-year old gelding missed paying instant dividends by a neck. The son of Pure Prize battled for the lead in the 10K starter allowance, poked a head in front in the lane in the 6 furlong dash and got cauight just inside the furlong marker by the 3-5 favorite. He finished 3 ¼ lengths clear of the show horse and has now posted 5 wins and 3 seconds from 20 career starts. Wins again at this level soon.

SHEIKANATOR – The Ken McPeek trained juvenile son of Curlin got his first career win in his second career start in last and should move through the early conditions quickly. The colt rallied from last to second in his debut and did so at 8 ½ furlongs. Back at the same distance for the win he broke much closer to the pace, moved 5 wide at the 5/16ths marker and dug in gamely to catch the front runner despite soft fractions early on. Still has room to improve so stay with him.

TOP TIER LASS – In her last, her second try following a Michael Maker claim two back the 3-year old filly was away a step slowly from the rail and had to wait a bit before rallying strongly to miss by a neck. The daughter of Street Boss was also making her first start on a fast traditional dirt surface in the 15K 6 furlong race and has also sprinted well on both synthetic and grass. She should get past this NW2L level soon and follow closely at Turfway and Gulfstream as well as Maker is known to move his barns around.

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