Blue Chip Service Newsletter Vol. 1 No. 1
Wednesday, November 28... Volume 1 - Number 1
GULFSTREAM PARK 2012-2013 RACE MEET
OPENED SATURDAY, DECEMBER 1
Preview & Opening Week Winners
Plus Much More With Your Blue Chip Racing Service
Source For Angles , Trends, Horses To Watch & Free Picks
At Gulfstream Aqueduct, Fairgrounds, Hollywood & Tampa Bay
Single Day... 1 Week... 4 Week... 26 Week Programs Available
With the College Football regular season all but over and Bowl Games pending, with the NFL entering playoff overdrive, with the NBA and College Basketball seasons just beginning and in horse racing, with the Breeders' Cup in the rear view mirror and the Triple Crown still far down the highway, Thoroughbred Racing seems to disappear from mainstream coverage: at least in the eyes of those bettors that don't know any better.
At the Jim Hurley Racing Network WE KNOW THAT THERE IS NO BETTER TIME TO PAY ATTENTION to thoroughbred racing than RIGHT NOW.
Just take a look at what is happening right now...
GULFSTREAM PARK - Opens Saturday, December 1 through Monday, April 8
HOLLYWOOD PARK - Full fields and Value Prices through Sunday, December 16...
SANTA ANITA - Opens Wednesday, December 26 through Sunday, April 21
TAMPA BAY - Opens Saturday, December 1through Sunday, May 5
AQUEDUCT - Winning switches from Main Track to Inner Dirt Track Wednesday, December 12
FAIR GROUNDS - Opened Thanksgiving Day, runs through Sunday 3/31
Believe me when I tell you that the next few months... through the end of 2012 and into the beginning of 2013 my Jim Hurley racing Network will be generating as much or even more profit than we do during any other time of the season. And as you read my 2012 GULFSTREAM PREVIEW below you'll begin to understand why.
GULFSTREAM PARK OPENED SATURDAY
OPPORTUNITIES ABOUND - TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
Should you need a bit of encouragement regarding the prospects that the BIGGEST WINTER RACE MEET in the nation provides I suggest you simply take a look at some of the early days of the 2011-2012 meet.
Last year's meet opened on Saturday, December 3rd. Let's take a look at some of the statistics from the opening six days of the meet, statistics that bear out how much PROFIT OPPORTUNITY EXISTS.
Opening 6 Days... 61 Races:
Average Winner Paid $10.90
Average Exacta Paid $66.30
NOTE: The average Win Payoff is on par with the national average and the average Exacta Payoff is higher than the national average.
26 Winning Favorites... That is a Very High 42.6% Win Ratio
The Average Payoff was also low for a winning favorite at $4.85
NOTE: So why do I say there is OPPORTUNITY? Because I know when to utilize those favorites and when not to. 11 of the 26 favorites paid $4.00 or less. Since I know when a favorite is underpriced yet still has a very solid probability of winning I will avoid that horse as a win play. However... despite the low overall Win Payoff of the favorite, the average Exacta Payoff in races won by the favorite was a very generous $46.95. If you measure the average Win Payoff of the favorite vs the overall win average it is ONLY 45% of that $10.90 Payoff. But if you measure the average Exacta Payoff in the races won by the favorite, that payoff of $46.95 is a whopping 70% of the overall average Exacta Payoff. That is what I mean when I say I know when and when not to utilize even the favorite.
35 Winning Non-Favorites
The Average Payoff was a substantial $15.40
The Average Payoff for the Exacta was $79.45
I'm sure you can begin to see why I am SO EXCITED EACH YEAR AT THE OPENING OF GULFSTREAM PARK.
Remember, the average bettor has little time to digest all the nuances of this meet. With so many shippers coming in, with so many horses coming over from the just finished Calder meet and with the top name barns relocating and the top name jockeys following, just about every field is deep and contentious. Just take a look at where last year's winners raced prior to racing at Gulfstream during the opening 6 days.
CALDER (19) - As you would expect, with more shippers yet to arrive and by far the most entries being from that race track and a number of the maiden claiming and lower priced claiming races carded being almost exclusively comprised of Calder runners, the most winners would have last raced there. BELMONT... (9) CHURCHILL DOWNS... (7) MONMOUTH... (4) KEENELAND... (3) DELAWARE... (2) PARX... (2) SANTA ANITA... (1) HOLLYWOOD... (1) HAWTHORNE... (1) COLONIAL... (1) COLONIAL... (1) GULFSTREAM... (1) ARLINGTON... (1) SARATOGA... (1) LAUREL... (1) WOODBINE... (1) ELLIS PARK... (1) FORT ERIE... (1) FIRST TIME STARTERS... (3)
These tidbits only scratch the surface of what I MUST and DO KNOW as I open up my NETWORK BLUE CHIP RACING SERVICE TO GULFSTREAM PARK SELECTIONS.
BUT IT ISN'T JUST GULFSTREAM PARK WHERE THE
JIM HURLEY RACING NETWORK WILL BE WINNING
Last year we opened BOTH the Gulfstream Park & Tampa Bay Meets by taking advantage of numerous overlays. You must remember that there are so many different scenarios to consider in the opening days of any meet. Who are the hot shippers, which horses have been freshened up so they can come back sharp over a surface they prefer and which local horses are going to hold form against the newcomers? These and many other factors must be mastered and just as we did last year we will master them again in 2012. Look at the first two weeks at Gulfstream and Tampa in 2011.
Sat. 12/3 - Gabby Q - $7.00... Ravelo's Boy - $24.60
Gabby Q. $7.00/Grip Hands $19.60 - Double Paid $110.20
Sun. 12/4 - Gorgeous Melody - $7.80... Woodbourne/Tastefully Smart - Exacta Box - $70.80
Thurs. 12/8 - Big Dreams - $6.20... Mel Beach 2nd - Exacta $31.20... Indirectly A.P. 3rd - Trifecta $300.60
Write When Ready - $11.40
Fri. 12/19 - Lava Gold $6.80/Katielanesjoy $10.40 - Double Paid $56.80
Game Ball/Double Bullet/Sir Rabbit - Exacta Box $51.40... Trifecta Box $169.60
Sat. 12/10 - Margano - $11.60... The Hunk - $7.00
Sun. 12/11 - Rogue - $8.80... Last Full Measure - $25.80... Shared Heart 2nd - Exacta $104.40
The Haku - $7.20
Sat. 12/3 - Pike Creek - $11.00... Mindy Michelle/Dance For Zack/Tequila - Exacta Box $44.00 - Trifecta Box $376.60
Sun. 12/4 - No Scheduled Racing
Weds. 12/7 - Taylor's Irish - $7.80... This Guy - $17.40
Thurs. 12/8 - No Scheduled Racing
Fri. 12/9 - Paris By Night - $22.80... Slewsville 2nd - Exacta $73.00
Paris By Night/Chickabunny - Double Paid $132.80... Gold Strike Begins - $7.80
Sat. 12/10 - Oh Stirling Bridge/Purincat/N.B.A. Money - Exacta Box $96.00... Trifecta Box $348.20
Sun. 12/11 - No Scheduled Racing
We were RED HOT when we opened those two tracks last year.
15 Winners from 24 releases
3 Cashed Doubles from 6 releases
7 Cashed Exactas from 14 releases
4 Cashed Trifectas from 10 releases
AND WE ARE READY TO DO IT AGAIN
Play Every Day With The BLUE CHIP RACING SERVICE
HORSES TO WATCH
The following horses ran the week ending Sunday 11/25 and should be considered as potential plays when they run under the designated conditions the next one or two times out.
BESSIE M. - Strong effort by the daughter of Medalist as she switched tactics from front running efforts and dropped into a tracking position before rallying through the lane to pull clear of 30K rivals in a 6 furlong sprint last out. Claimed by Bruce Levine she should keep winning.
FRAZIL - Nice effort vs. solid group of 14K starter handicap rivals in first start since February at Parx. No chance to catch sharp in-form wire-to-wire winner in 6 furlong event but the veteran gelding angled out from the rail and rallied for the place spot. Beats same or open 25K level foes soon.
KARMA POLICE - Continues to hold good form and was probably best vs 15K claimers in last when the filly had to bide her time from the rail in a crowded 6 furlong event before altering course once out in the race track. Got up for the place and was haltered by Gregory DiPrima. Good enough to win right back even if stepped up a notch.
LAKOTA FREUD - Maiden claiming gelding got banged around in deep stretch while contesting hot pace in first try since September. Haltered by sharp claiming trainer Rodriguez so expect significant improvement if sent vs same or slightly better next time.
RUSILA - The MSW filly prompted the pace, moved three wide into the stretch and battled back to get the place behind the favorite and her stable-mate Lady Kierkegaard after surrendering that position in the stretch. It was her first start since August at Saratoga and she should break through soon for trainer Clemente.
BELVIN - Nice try by the 2-year old colt as he closed willingly against a speed bias as the 2.2 -1 favorite in his debut. The Bob Baffert trained colt chased the pace while just off the rail, moved out when asked and picked up ground late on the wire-to-wire winner as he finished well clear in second. Will not be a maiden long... bet him right back.
COYOTE ROAD - Belated debut by the 4-year old gelding was well regarded by his backers and he didn't disappoint, taking control soon after the break in the 20K maiden claiming sprint and drawing off by 4¼ lengths. He remained in the Dean Pederson barn and should be able to utilize his good speed to come right back vs mid-level platers.
MISS AMERICAN PIE - Word was out on this goodie as the 2-year old daughter was sent off at 3-2 in her debut and blew away from her 20K maiden rivals to win by 12½ widening wire-to-wire lengths. The daughter of Sharp Humor was also popular in the claim box and John Sadler won the shake. Back her even if sent into allowance conditions right off the maiden win.
ROLL YOUR EYES - Continued to show improvement with solid second place effort travelling 6 panels vs 20K rivals following win vs 16K foes in prior. The 3-year old filly stalked the 6-5 wire-to-wire winner from the inside, gave up position and battled back for the place. Claimed out of the race by Julio Canani she should continue to hold her form when sprinting vs the same or slightly better. Win two races back was at Santa Anita so she should handle that track as well.
SONG GIRL - Solid second place effort following a 4 wide run at the leader from off the pace in 6 furlong 50K turf claimer. It was her first start since shipping in from Keeneland for trainer Michael Ann Ewing and the 3-year old filly should especially like the 6½ furlong downhill Santa Anita grass course should her next start come there.
SURFCUP - The 2-year old son of Unusual Heat showed plenty of talent when he rallied from dead last with a 23 flat final quarter to win his debut going a mile over the turf vs Special Weights. Look for the Bob Baffert trainee to come right back and win in conditions.
ANTE UP ANNIE - The Dallas Stewart trained juvenile LA. Bred filly had her furious late rally run out of race track in her debut. She was away greenly and got away at the back of the pack. She took to the rail and began to find her best stride in the lane while finishing fourth, beaten less than 2 lengths for the place as they all chased the wire-to-wire second choice in the 5½ furlong dash. Experience and a bit more ground gets it done soon.
DEADLY TRUTH - The juvenile MSW from the Ray Tracey, Jr. barn was off to an awkward start as the 3-2 favorite in a 5½ furlong restricted La. Bred test. He spotted the field 12 lengths, was 4 wide on the turn, came out 8 wide in the stretch and was still 3 lengths back inside the sixteenth pole before losing by a neck while 2¼ lengths clear of the show horse. Breaks his maiden soon sprinting vs restricted or open company.
DIVINE PROVIDENCE - The La. Bred filly got a bit tired late in her 6 furlong second level allowance sprint and drifted out and bumped with a rival inside the sixteenth pole. Her rider inadvertently hit the second place finisher with the whip and their places were reversed. It was her first race since August so the same effort should get her past the condition next time.
FLASHY CAMPAIGN - The Tom Amoss trained juvenile daughter of Political Force had little trouble dispatching her rivals as she made every step of her debut a winning one in her last. She lay just off the pace-setter to the quarter pole, quickly took command and drew off by 4½ lengths while eased up. Looks to be a good one and should breeze through allowance conditions. Bet her right back.
TRIPLE CHECK - The veteran turf gelding followed up a September win at Arlington by returning to take this 17.5K two turn claimer. The Louie Roussel trained son of Out Of Place settled near the back of the pack early, raced wide most of the way and overcame a pedestrian pace to rally wider still through the lane and get up in the final strides. Should hold his form and win again soon vs the same or slightly better.
DON'T FORGET... GULFSTREAM PARK & TAMPA BAY OPENED SATURDAY
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