Updating NFL Divisional Unders


Updating NFL Divisional Unders

I've reminded you a few times this year that NFL games can skew toward the Under when divisional rivals go to battle. We've been seeing additional examples in recent days, including the "shootout that never happened" on Thanksgiving Day between Green Bay and Detroit.

You should have seen all the sad faces in Vegas sportsbooks when Green Bay led 7-0 at halftime, while Detroit and Over was the most popular combination choice of the day in that game.

Let's pick up with last Sunday, and review what's been happing in recent divisional action from the Over/Under perspective. I'll run through the games in schedule order.

BUFFALO AT MIAMI: The game stayed Under 44 with a 35-8 final score. That may seem like a close call. Just remember that Miami had a special teams score and a few cheap points off of turnovers. Neither offense broke 250 total yards.

CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE: This one flew Over. Cincinnati tried to win in the air...which gave away a lot of points from turnovers...but then rallied back in garbage time to make it close. A loser for Under bettors.

DALLAS AT WASHINGTON: Another Over, which is giving a false read early because of the rotation order. Rex Grossman apparently only knows how to pass against the Cowboys!

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: It was just 9-0 at halftime here, and San Francisco would win 23-7 in a game that stayed Under the Vegas number by 10 points. It didn't hurt Under players that the 49ers wanted to get this game over with quickly so they could prepare for their Thanksgiving night game.

SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS: An ugly defensive struggle that also stayed Under by 10 points. Seattle won 24-7, and held the Rams to 185 yards of total offense.

PHILADELPHIA AT THE NY GIANTS: Just 10-3 at halftime, and that touchdown came on a 14-yard drive after a long punt return. The final score was 17-10 for the Eagles, which stayed Under the Vegas mark by 18 points.

GREEN BAY AT DETROIT: The world was in shock (particularly the FOX-TV announcers) when a game with a Vegas total of 54 was just 7-0 at halftime. A late scoring surge could only bring the 27-15 final score to 42 points...which was still way Under expectations.

That's 5-2 for the Unders over the last two days of NFL action...with four of the Unders winning by double digits...and the other one needing a lot of cheap points just to get close to the number.

That doesn't mean today's slate is a lock to see more Unders in defensive games. Things can open up in rematches. But...particularly in games that are meaningful for at least one of the teams, handicappers should at least be thinking about some Unders on this card.


ARIZONA AT ST. LOUIS: First meeting was 13-13 at the end of regulation against a Vegas total of 41. Will today's game open up more? Or, are these quarterbacks just too bad?!

BUFFALO AT THE NY JETS: You probably remember this one. The Jets only led 3-0 at halftime, before pulling away to a 27-11 final that stayed Under by a touchdown.  Be sure to check the weather reports for games in the Northeast and Midwest from this point forward.

CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI: Did you remember these teams played in the season opener? That game went Over in a 27-17 Bengals win.

HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE: Houston won the opener 24-14 in a game that stayed Under by a field goal. And, that was with a better quarterback than they'll have on the field toady!

DENVER AT SAN DIEGO: The opener went Over in a 29-24 finish...though a defensive score was in the mix. Note that Tim Tebow is now starting, and Denver has been playing a much more defensive, plodding style with him at the helm.

That's five divisional games on the Sunday card...where three of the five first meetings stayed Under, and now changes at quarterback have added some new wrinkles in a few spots. I'm not by any means recommending that you bet these Unders today. I just wanted to make sure this tendency stayed on your radar since it's something we've been discussing off-and-on through the season. Maybe this is the day the trend breaks. If you love handicapping like me, you're always looking for an edge and studying the possibilities from all angles.

You regulars know that WAYNE ALLYN ROOT doesn't release a lot of totals on the regular service. Customers demand the best team side bets...and THE KING OF LAS VEGAS delivers for his customers. When I'm talking about Over/Unders online, it usually means two things:

  • I've found an edge that has been working through the season, and I want to keep you updated on developments.
  • I've got something HUGE on my service that day in terms of team sides, and I don't to give away any hints by talking about individual teams!


You can purchase's today's BLOCKBUSTERS right here at the website with your credit card. Or, you can call my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946 to get on board. Be sure you check on "rest of the season" packages for college and pro football (Championship Weekend is days away, and then we have all the bowls!). We got good basketball news Saturday as well with what appears to be a solution in the NBA stalemate. Early season hoop packages offer the most value!

The only handicapper with a star on the Vegas "Walk of Fame" is about to make headlines once again with one of the biggest NFL winners of the season. That means it's time for YOU to link up with WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!


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