Updated Derby Top Ten

UPDATED DERBY TOP TEN

Rule seems to improve each time he leaves the starting gate. He concluded his juvenile season with three consecutive victories, and today he began a new campaign with a victory in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay. So he has won four consecutive races, and he never has lost around two turns.

As expected, he went to the lead immediately at Tampa Bay, and when the opening half-mile split (47.72 seconds) went up, the outcome shed all doubt. He raced comfortably on the lead and then drew clear when challenged to win by three lengths, completing the 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.15. an excellent time for the day and good for 100 in my numbers. That effort represents a perfect starting place for him. Although he has won his two-turn races leading throughout, Rule doesn’t appear to be a headstrong sort who requires the lead and will go on strike if he doesn’t get it.

As for the day’s other major Triple Crown prep, the Bob Lewis, it went to Caracortado, a Cal-bred who’s unbeaten in five outings. He completed the 1 1/16 miles in 1:41.75, which was about the same as St. Trinians’ winning time (1:41.73) in the Santa Maria. In other words, for me Caracortado also earned a triple-digit number for himself. But I can’t watch those races at Santa Anita without concluding that the surface, especially in two-turn races, favors horses who rally from off the pace, horses such as St. Trinians and Caracortado. He had a perfect trip cruising behind the early leaders, and when asked he ran right by Tiz Chrome and American Lion. Dave In Dixie rallied from far back to be second. And American Lion, who stalked Tiz Chrome early, finished third in a good effort.

Anyway, after today’s results, here’s the latest Top Ten:

1. Lookin At Lucky: The champ should be cranking up soon for his seasonal debut next month.

2. Buddy’s Saint: He appears to be training well for his seasonal debut in the Fountain of Youth.

3. Rule: He’ll be aimed at a Grade I, his trainer, Todd Pletcher, said. That probably means the Florida Derby or Wood will be next.

4. Eskendereya: Pletcher said this handsome colt doesn’t tire, and so he should continue to improve as the distances stretch, starting with the Fountain of Youth.

5. Conveyance: Given the surface, his win in the San Rafael looks better and better. He switched leads three times down the lane at Santa Anita, suggesting he could very well be much better on dirt, where he should be hard to beat in Monday’s Southwest.

6. Super Saver: He could be going to New York for the Gotham or to Oaklawn for the Rebel.

7. Jackson Bend: He was probably best in the Holy Bull and will be among many good ones in the Fountain of Youth.

8. Dryfly: Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes could be a proving ground for him as he’ll try to run down Conveyance.

9: Dublin: He drew an outside post position for the Southwest, but if he finishes strongly in a good effort, he’ll move himself down the road to the Triple Crown.

10. Caracortado: He may be a synthetic freak, but his Bob Lewis was too good to ignore.

Also eligible: Maximus Ruler, Dave In Dixie, Drosselmeyer, Tahitian Warrior, Lost Aptitude, American Lion, Tiz Chrome, Noble’s Promise, D’Funnybone.

by Gary West
from startelegramsports.typepad.com

JERRY BOSSERT’S DERBY RANKINGS (From The NY Post)

 

HORSE

TRAINER

JOCKEY

LAST RACE

NEXT RACE

COMMENT

ODDS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jackson Bend

N. Zito

J. Rose

Holy Bull 2- ¾

Fountain of Youth 2/20

Worked a bullet 4f in:47 Saturday

27-1

Buddy’s Saint

B. Levine

J. Lezcano

Remsen 1-4 ¾

Fountain of Youth 2/20

Worked 6f in 1:13.40 yesterday

10-1

Lookin At Lucky

B. Baffert

G. Gomez

H’wood Futurity 1 – ¾

San Felipe 3/13

Champ worked 4f in :48.20 yesterday

8-1

Super Saver

T. Pletcher

C. Borel

KY Jockey Club 1-5

Undecided

May start in Gotham at Aqueduct

20-1

Rule

T. Pletcher

J. Velazquez

Sam Davis 1-3

Undecided

May start next in FL Derby

24-1

Noble’s Promise

K. McPeek

R. Bejarano

H’wood Futurity 2- ¾

Rebel 3/13

Worked 4f in :46.50 on Saturday

36-1

Dublin

W. Lukas

T. Thompson

Iroquois 7-10 ¼

Southwest Stakes 2/15

Hopeful winner returns today.

20-1

Eskendereya

T. Pletcher

J. Velazquez

Allowance 1-1 ¾

Fountain of Youth 2/20

Turned in quick 5f move yesterday

22-1

Ron  the Greek

T. Amoss

J. Graham

LeComte Stakes 1-1 ½

Risen Star 2/20

Breezed 6f on Wednesday

31-1

Drosselmeyer

W. Mott

K. Desormeaux

Allowance 1-1 ¾

Undecided

Could start Saturday in Risen Star

20-1

Caracortado

M. Machowsky

P. Atkinson

Robert Lewis 1-1 ¾

San Felipe 3/13

Has won all five starts to begin career

Field

D’Funnybone

R. Dutrow

E. Prado

BC Juvenile 13-27 ½

Hutcheson 2/20

Returns to the races on Saturday

Field

Vale of York

S. Suroor

A. Ajtebi

BC Juvenile 1-hd

UAE Derby 3/27

May skip Triple Crown completely

26-1

Lentenor

M. Matz

J. Velazques

Maiden 1-3 ½

Allowance 2/17/10

Starts Wednesday at Gulfstream

Field

Conveyance

B. Baffert

G. Gomez

San Rafael 1-1 ¾

Southwest 2/15

Has won all three starts

33-1

23
Nov

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