Richie Baccellieri: How Sharps are Betting NFL Week 9
Back now to take a look at the rest of this weekend' NFL action. The NY Jets cashed the first ticket of the week Thursday night with a surprisingly easy win over the Buffalo Bills. We move to Sunday. Games are listed in Nevada Rotation order.
Denver at Philadelphia: There was a quarterback change here, but no line change. Philadelphia had been -7.5 when Trevor Siemian was the projected QB. Brock Osweiler will get the start instead. The market sees him as just as bad as Siemian. If the line doesn't move from here, Philadelphia -1.5. will be a popular choice in two-team teasers. Though, some sharps shy away from interconference games because some favorites take their eyes off the ball in those. When a line sits at -7.5 this long, you know for sure that sharps would pound the favorite at -7, but most are looking to see what they can get on the dog after the public bets on game day.
LA Rams at NY Giants: An opener of Rams -4 has come down to -3.5. I don't expect the key number of three to come into play. Sportsbooks know that the rested Rams would get a lot of support at that price against the shorthanded Giants. Sharps have made it clear they won't lay more than three with the Rams. Dog lovers already took the four.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Possibly a tug-of-war shaping up between New Orleans -6.5 and Tampa Bay +7. Most stores have been on the seven this week, with no interest on the favorite at that price. Sharps tend not to lay this money points in divisional rivalries. But, -6.5 becomes interesting because seven is a key number and Tampa Bay's defense has been awful in recent weeks.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: The Jaguars have jumped from -3.5 to -5.5, which isn't quite as big a deal as it seems because four and five aren't critical numbers. It is telling though that it moved so hard away from the key number of three. Sharps were thinking 5-6 made more sense for the "right" line given Cincinnati's uninspired play vs. Indy last week. Dog money might come in at +6, or might pass unless the full touchdown comes into play. Sharps that bet the Bengals hard at Pittsburgh learned a lesson.
Atlanta at Carolina: We have a flipped favorite here, as Atlanta +1.5 is now Atlanta -1.5. Games rarely end in a tie, and one isn't a very common number. So, that's also not as big a move as it seems at first glance. But, it is a sign of respect for Matt Ryan's ability to "find a way to win." The Falcons have played some nailbiters this season. You don't want to lay them as a medium or big favorite as a result. If the game's near pick-em, they make more sense. I'm also hearing definite sentiment against Carolina's offense this week too.
Indianapolis at Houston: Big line move when Deshaun Watson got hurt in practice Thursday. He's out for the season, just as sharps were accepting that he was the real deal. A line of -12.5 before the injury dropped down to -7. I expect sharps to fade any move off the seven. Though, it's possible that Indy will get game-day dog support from sharps who think Tom Savage can't be trusted. He's struggled in regular season action his whole career. Indy did show up as a feisty dog in Cincinnati last Sunday.
Baltimore at Tennessee: Much like Rams/Giants in that a favorite of -4 has dropped to -3. Here, it's home favorite Tennessee. The Titans would get respect at the key number of three, so I don't think it will fall that far. I think this will be a solid number through the weekend unless there are injury surprises or a syndicate decides Sunday morning that it's going to hit one of these teams hard
Arizona at San Francisco: The Cardinals opened at -1, with Drew Stanton as their new starting quarterback. They've been bet up to -2 or -2.5 depending on the store. Some sharps are concerned that the Niners are now tanking for worst record given their blowout losses the last two weeks. Others think that this week will be bad, but then next week might be better if Jimmy Garappolo takes over as the new QB. This game does fall into the teaser window, meaning SF +8 or +8.5 would get some consideration. Tougher to tease teams who are tanking!
Washington at Seattle: Speaking of teasers...this game is going to present a challenge to sportsbooks because of that dynamic. Seattle opened at -7. Washington is in a killer schedule stretch that has them facing Philadelphia, Dallas, and now Seattle in successive weeks...with two of those games on the road. There's interest in Seattle, but a line move to -7.5 would bring in A TON of teaser bets which would include Seattle -1.5. Some stores may take this all the way to -9 by kickoff. Others may just live with the seven and root for Washington plus a TD rather than plus 1.5 or +2. On the whole, sharps like Seattle at -7 but would love them in teasers below a field goal. Washington would generate dog interest at +9 because Seattle isn't a blowout team any more vs. opponents who know what they're doing.
Kansas City at Dallas: This is the game everyone's looking forward to. Looks like Ezekiel Elliot will be able to play as his appeals process continues. That caused some interest on the Cowboys Friday morning...moving a line of -1 up to -2. Kansas City would be a popular teaser choice at +7.5, +8, or +8.5. It's hard to blow out the Chiefs.
Oakland at Miami: Oakland has been bet up to -3 in the Sunday nighter, from an opener of -2.5. Miami looked awful last Thursday in Baltimore, but has extra rest. Oakland has been very shaky on the road this season. Hard to love either side beyond playing number value. Sharps liked Oakland enough to drive the short favorite to the key number. Wise Guys would fade any move off the three.
Detroit at Green Bay: Detroit opened at -2, and we're mostly seeing -2 or -2.5. right now. Tricky game because Brett Hundley has struggled badly since replacing Aaron Rodgers as the Green Bay quarterback. But, a bye week could have him ready against a divisional rival in a must-win game for the Packers. Sharps generally HATE Hundley because of his inexperience and slow decision-making in the pocket. They won't bet him unless +3 comes into play, but they will take shots with him in teasers since that game is in the window that crosses both the 3 and the 7 at home time. No sharp interest in Detroit at this price or we would have seen the number driven to the key number of three.
Best of luck to you over what's shaping up as a very exciting football weekend. You can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about combination packages with basketball. You longtime readers know that college basketball is my favorite sport to handicap and bet personally. That starts Friday!
Thanks for reading. See you next week!
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