Richie Baccellieri: How Sharps are Betting Week 4 NFL
Back as promised with my weekly look at how the sharps (professional wagerers) are betting all the NFL action. Green Bay got the money Thursday night over Chicago, which has created a lot of open-ended teasers (and moneyline parlays) that will finish up Sunday or Monday. Let's see how the Wise Guys have been betting the remaining pointspreads thus far. First, here's a look at Saturday night's ACC Clash.
SATURDAY'S BIG GAME
Clemson at Virginia Tech: The Hokies may be the last real threat on the Clemson schedule, at least until the ACC Championship game. And, that could turn out to be a rematch with Virginia Tech! Sharps have been very impressed with this Clemson defense...and the quants are getting big gradings to them because of their statistical blowouts. An opener of Clemson -5.5 was bet all the way up to -7.5 or -8. That's a BIG deal because the move blew through the key number of seven. Some old-school sharps are going to like this home dog at a dangerous site. They're waiting to see what they can get before entering the fray. For now, the math guys (and some squares) have spoken. Old school dog lovers will get their money in before kickoff. The Over/Under has been bet up from 49 to 51.
New Orleans vs. Miami (in London): An opener of New Orleans -2 was bet up to -3 very quickly. It's mostly stayed there all week. Any drop below the three immediately brings in money on the favorite. Miami's had a tough schedule so far because of the hurricane. Some sharps are happy to take the full three because they don't expect the Dolphins to play that badly two weeks in a row (awful loss at NYJ last Sunday). But, the public, and other sharps like the explosive Saints at anything below the field goal.
Carolina at New England: New England opened at -8, and has been bet up to -9. Some of that is sports books racing through the 8.5 because they don't want to see New England -2.5 in a million teasers (that six-point move would cross both the 7 and the 3 on the way down). Nothing yet to bring in Carolina money...though dog lovers are waiting just in case it goes higher on game day. Carolina's offense has really struggled, but so has New England's defense. If the public pushes the game to the key number of -10, dog money could hit very hard immediately.
LA Rams at Dallas: A very fast move on the dog here, as an opener of Dallas -8 is down to Rams +6.5. Usually dog money waits for the public to lift a line higher. Here, sharps couldn't believe they were getting more than a TD with the improved Rams with extra rest against the inconsistent Cowboys. Weird for sportsbooks to be encouraging squares to bet the Cowboys. That's what a line a half-point below a key number is designed to do. Sharps are really respecting the Thursday night teams with extra rest thus far in 2017, and are enthusiastic about this Rams offense.
Detroit at Minnesota: It may be tempting to wait until Sunday morning on this one...because sharps came in VERY hard last week about 15 minutes to kickoff on the Vikings. That drove a line of Tampa Bay -2 down to pick-em. The Vikes were obviously the right side once the game started. Right now, we're seeing Minnesota -2. This is a strong home field, and Case Keenum impressed last week. But, we haven't yet seen a drive to the key number of three. Maybe the sharps are more interested this week in taking Detroit +8 in teasers than they are in going to the Vikings' well one more time.
Tennessee at Houston: Early interest on Tennessee -1 and -1.5, but the move stopped at the two. Houston +8 is appealing to sharp teaser players, and Deshaun Watson impressed last week at New England. Will be interesting to see what the public will do here. Both teams could fall back to earth after big covers vs. tough opponents. Houston would get a lot of sharp respect at +3 if the public moves the Titans that high. For now...sharps who liked Tennessee are already in, while those thinking about Houston prefer the teaser route.
Jacksonville at NY Jets: Possibly a tug-of-war setting up between Jacksonville -3 and the NY Jets +3.5. The problem here is that it's still kind of tough to like those teams no matter what the line is. Both are coming off blowout wins as underdogs last week. Jags money can't be certain that Jacksonville will play that well a second week in a row. The Jets still have "worst in the league" kind of talent, which usually falls back to earth after a big win. Probably a gentle tug-of-war from value bettors around the key number.
Cincinnati at Cleveland: The opener of Cincinnati -4 is down to a solid -3. Cleveland and the other bad teams are getting sharp respect as home underdogs. Helps that the Browns lost on the road last week rather than being in a letdown spot. Cincinnati has struggled all season outside the first half at Green Bay. Sharps like the Browns +3...and would really like the Browns +8.5 in teasers if the game line drops to +2.5.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Another solid three for a road favorite. This one rose from an opener of -2. This has been a great rivalry where the teams traditionally play very close games. Sharps would fade any public move off the three...and would use Baltimore +8.5 if +2.5 in the game line came into play. Baltimore would be getting even more respect if the offense hadn't struggled so much this season.
Buffalo at Atlanta: This one has been a solid Atlanta -8 all week. That puts the Falcons in the teaser window. They're already in a lot of two-teamers with Green Bay -1.5 from Thursday night. I wouldn't be shocked if some stores lift this one to -9 on Sunday just to avoid Atlanta -2 or -2.5 in teasers. That would leave the one-sided on the road dog plus the high number. But, that's a less scary position for sportsbooks to take at this site with a home favorite capable of running up the score.
NY Giants at Tampa Bay: The opener of Tampa Bay -4 has been bet down to a solid three everywhere. The Giants finally started to look like themselves in the fourth quarter at Philadelphia last week. Tampa Bay was gift-wrapped a win over Chicago before looking awful at Minnesota. Sharps would fade any public move off the three in either direction. This game is likely to land right on the three often enough to sway the percentages against any move.
Philadelphia at the LA Chargers: Not much betting interest yet. An opener of LAC -1 is up to -1.5. That's enough to put the Eagles in the teaser window for a move to +7.5. But...sharps generally don't like backing road teams on a long trip in a divisional letdown spot. There's so little faith in the Chargers right now that sharps didn't pound this great scheduling situation like they normally would. You're supposed to fade the Eagles...but sharps are leaving the game alone thus far.
San Francisco at Arizona: Looks like a tug-of-war shaping up between San Francisco +7 and Arizona -6.5. The Niners are getting that "Thursday night respect" with extra rest, particularly against a team that just played Monday Night. But, the public doesn't mind laying less than a TD against bad teams, and they still see SF as a bad team. Sharps really like the dog with seven here.
Oakland at Denver: Definitely a tug-of-war in play already...and it could be a dangerous one because Denver winning exactly by three is a high likelihood in an important divisional game matching two quality teams. Broncos money comes in whenever -2.5 is on the board (though Raiders money hits +8.5 in teasers). Oakland money comes in hard on the key number at +3. If the game lands exactly on the three...no bettors lose and sports books take a bath!
Indianapolis at Seattle: This might be one of the least bet Sunday night games ever! Seattle is still -13, as it has been all week. Nobody wants this big ugly dog on the road against a solid defense. Nobody can lay a number that tall because Seattle's offense has struggled so much. Old school dog lovers are waiting to see if +13.5 or +14 might come into play on game day. They're confident +13 isn't about to disappear from public money.
Washington at Kansas City: Kansas City has looked great this season. But, many sharps are skeptical that they're suddenly a Super Bowl team. That's why Philadelphia took so much Wise Guy money on this field two weeks ago...and why Washington might on Monday. Some stores are testing -6.5 as I write this. Possibly a tug-of-war shaping up between Washington +7 and Kansas City -6.5. The public might need to have a good Sunday to come in heavily on this TV home favorite.
You can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card every day. If you have any questions call the office at 1-888-777-4155. Please check on combination packages that feature both football and baseball. The playoffs begin Tuesday with the AL Wildcard game. Thanks for reading again this week. See you again next Thursday.
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