Wayne Root: How to Find Upsets in the NFL Preseason
The NFL Preseason is now just hours away, with the Hall of Fame game kicking off Thursday Night featuring the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals. THE KING OF UPSETS is always looking for value, and the August exhibition slate is no exception. Today, we're going to discuss how to find smart underdog bets over the next five weeks.
When it comes to Preseason football, I always emphasize patience. Too many bettors missed football so much that they get crazy when games are back on the schedule. They imagine advantages that aren't there. They think they've found a few trends that turn out to just be random noise. They're sure a second-string quarterback is going to lead them to a blowout, only to find out the head coach just wants him to hand the ball off this week.
Don't get me wrong, there are some great bets in the NFL Preseason. But, there are just a handful a week. And, they usually involve a combination of factors rather than just one trend or one special quarterback.
In terms of specifically picking UPSETS with small underdogs in August, WAYNE ALLYN ROOT focuses on these factors:
*The head coach's past straight up and ATS record in August
*The opposing head coach's past straight up and ATS record in August
*The likely production of ALL backup quarterbacks
*Whether there's a sense of urgency after a disappointing prior season
*Whether the opponent is likely to be flat because there's no sense of urgency
Now, I don't mean that finding just one of those is going to trigger a play. I'm trying to find games where ALL of those line up together to create a PINNACLE or NO LIMIT caliber release for my clients. Ideally, we get a coach who emphasizes Preseason results facing one who doesn't…AND a team with productive QB depth vs. one who doesn't have that…AND a team that wants to send a message vs. one going through the motions. This DOES happen in August with underdogs because the market prices too much on how the uninformed public bets.
Obviously, this means keeping track year-by-year of head coaching performances, which I do myself by hand so I can add context to the information rather than just relying on somebody else's published trends. For YOU, if you're just starting now, you'll have to rely on those published trends. They'll get you positioned to at least win more bets than you lose, but probably not maximize your win potential.
Clearly, you need to pay attention to quarterback rotations. Online news reports from the involved cities are a great help here. Every local newspaper has somebody following the team whose job it is to report who's going to play quarterback! Take advantage of that information, then evaluate past Preseason performances (if any) for the guys who will be playing in the second half. I tend to pass games involving rookies in the exhibition openers. But, if a rookie gets the ball moving in his opener, I will definitely consider taking him as a dog in later action. This has led to some of my biggest August plays over the last decade.
I would also run through last year's final standings, if I were you, to refresh my memory about who REALLY needs to bounce back this year. There are coaches on the hot seat. There are starting quarterbacks on the hot seat. Heck, there are franchises that are on the verge of losing their home fan base. On the other hand, there are playoff teams who have no reason at all to play for wins right now. Some will win anyway because of talent…particularly when facing other teams who don't care! But, your best bets will involve fading teams who lack motivation.
I'm not going to get too specific here in this article, because I need to protect possible selections that I have lined up in advance of the dress rehearsals in Week Three. Those are a whole different animal. And, we'll talk more about those when we get closer to them.
For now, you have some homework to do if you want to BET and WIN like the only man in the sports betting industry who has a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Las Vegas. Or, you could take the easy way out and just sign up for my ROOT TRUST!
You can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website every day with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Take advantage of early-bird rates, and put a few winners in your pocket before the rest of the world has even noticed football is back.
I'll be back with you again this weekend to talk baseball. It's great to see so many of the teams we've discussed already making moves to solidify their championship potential. The Los Angeles Dodgers were on a historic run BEFORE acquiring Yu Darvish. The New York Yankees were back on track BEFORE acquiring Sonny Gray. We have some potential Cinderella stories in the NL with Arizona and Colorado. This past weekend we talked about Kansas City trying for a sequel to their fairy tale seasons. August is going to be HUGE with NFL football and pennant race baseball driving so much action.
Don't lay in a hammock complaining about the summer heat. It's hotter in Las Vegas than just about anywhere…and you don't hear ME complaining! It's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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