Wayne Root: Don’t Over-rate Motivation in MLB Handicapping
While you definitely want to back motivated teams in Major League Baseball, particularly when they're priced as underdogs, you can't fall into the trap of assuming that EVERY team that's technically in the playoff race is playing with meaningful intangibles.
Mediocre teams are mediocre for a reason (usually a few reasons), and the fact that they "must win" to stay in a divisional or Wildcard hunt isn't going to make them any better. That "us against the world" mentality has to combine with real skill sets or it's not going to go anywhere. Many current "contenders" don't have enough skill!
*Too many of them have too many unimpressive starting pitchers. Motivation doesn't make an "average" arm suddenly throw 95 mph. Being in a "must win" situation doesn't make your breaking pitch move more emphatically.
*Too many of them have generic offenses who will score when somebody hits a home run, or when they're facing a bad opposing pitcher...but who can't get runs on the board "on command" in their most important games.
*Too many of them have shaky bullpens who are far from a sure thing to protect a lead if you're lucky enough to get one in the first place.
And, don't even get me started on managers. Do you think all of those AL teams in the Wildcard hunt have great managers? No way!
As THE KING OF UNDERDOGS, WAYNE ALLYN ROOT has to figure out when motivation is going to be a meaningful edge rather than just something that TV or radio announcers are talking about. I must accept that there are days, or possibly even full weeks where the concept of finding motivated teams just has to sit on a shelf. And, I have to keep reminding myself that going AGAINST teams who LACK motivation is often much better than trying to find "fired up" teams to invest in when you're talking about BASEBALL.
Who's the better underdog? A fired-up pup getting odds from a fired-up favorite? Or, a "just doing their job" underdog against a favorite who could care less about that day's game? It's actually the latter. You make more money betting against "the lack of motivation" from overpriced favorites than you do asking fired up underdogs to win.
Best favorites to FADE in the second half of an MLB season:
* Favorites who have huge divisional leads
* Favorites who have locked in Wildcard spots (almost there already in NL)
* Favorites on get-away days who have to catch a plane after the game
* Favorites who are resting key performers
From this point forward, you're more likely to find good spots to fade "coasting" teams like the Dodgers, Nationals, Astros, and even the Rockies and Diamondbacks with their big Wildcard leads, then you are to find a team around .500 who THAT DAY is going to come out like a football team after a halftime speech.
What are the clues for finding the occasional "us against the world" surge?
*Aggressive offenses that are making opponents work
*Enthusiastic home crowds
*Consistent game-to-game scoring rather than up-and-down scoring
*Hustling defense rather than "safe" defense
This is where watching a lot of games on satellite helps. It's really hard to see hustle and aggression in a boxscore. No numbers can tell you much about a walk-off celebration that expresses team unity. Watch as many games as you can! Picking winners is a full-time job.
My clients and I are having a great baseball season because I've been in synch with the flow of the river. I've been riding the right teams at the right times. I've been fading the disappointments before the rest of the world found out. I'm not even going to talk about analyzing pitchers because that would give away some important edges. My point is...YOU can win if you're thinking about handicapping the right way. And, by NOT getting distracted by overrated factors that aren't really in play.
If you'd like some help finding the best bets on the board, you can always purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. The ROOT TRUST is designed to help new and veteran investors alike make the most of their bankrolls. Learn all you can and sign up before football starts!
I'll talk to you again at the end of the week. It's great that there are so many storylines in play right now in baseball...which is going to lead into one of the most fascinating football seasons we've seen in a while. The only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the Las Vegas "Walk of Fame" is here to help you win. It's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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