Wayne Root: Hunting for Live Dogs when MLB Resumes
I had planned to write up an article for you during the All-Star Break outlining strategies for finding live underdogs once the regular season resumes Friday. But, I realized as I was putting it together, that the market is creating many great dog opportunities every day. They're going to be EASY to find!
*The worst teams, like San Diego and San Francisco, aren't as bad as the market has been pricing them. The Padres just took two games in Cleveland even though they were priced like a minor league team.
*The large hunk of "mediocrities" across both leagues still offer value as underdogs with their best starting pitchers, or against the worst starting pitchers of playoff contenders. This has been a gold mine in recent weeks.
*Even the best teams are sometimes underdogs. Amazingly, the ASTROS are still plus money sometimes with the back of their rotation on the road...even though they've been one of the greatest road teams in history in the first half of this season.
So, finding possible live dogs won't be particularly difficult for the time being. The trick will be narrowing down the options to the best choices. Some tips...
*Consider ANY underdog of +170 or more unless they're visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers (who are 24-6 their last 30 games and dominating the league). Now, the Dodgers will cool off at some point, and opposing dogs will start to offer value. For now, almost any dog of +170 is worth at least looking at. Strongly consider betting ANY dog throwing an above average starting pitcher.
*Consider ANY dog of +130 or better when they're throwing an above-average starting pitcher, or facing a below average opposing pitcher. All the contenders have some shaky arms in their rotations. All the bad teams have at least one guy who can go six decent innings. Some have more than one. For now, you should think long and hard about ANY dog in this range facing a below average starter.
*Look to fade contenders who are playing indifferent baseball of late...maybe 6-4 or worse over their last 10 games, 11-9 or worse over their last 20. It's amazing to me how many teams are priced on what was expected back in March, rather than what's actually been happening so far in the season. If you're only 11-9 your last 20 games, you shouldn't be -180 or higher vs. anyone.
*Look to back "off the radar" hard chargers who have quietly put things together. Kansas City is a great recent example. They've been playing stellar baseball for a month...and the bad luck of ending the first half against the Dodgers may only throw oddsmakers off the trail again. See if you can spot "the next Kansas City" who might win six or seven in a row...or go 14-6 over 20 games against very cheap prices. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one team from the AL East, one from the AL West, and one from the NL Central go on a run like that between now and early August.
*Study the schedule, so you can spot home dogs who are likely to steal a win when the visitor has a plane to catch on a getaway day. Even contenders will pace themselves during the dog days of summer, just going through the motions when they know they'll be playing in another city the next day. The more you pay attention to how each team handles schedule challenges, the more FREE MONEY you'll pick up when road favorites no-show against home dogs who are still trying.
Now, I'm fully aware that we're going to see some non-contenders throw in the towel on their seasons in relatively short order. The list of possible dogs will shorten because you just can't bet on a team that doesn't care any more, or hates their manager, no matter what the price is. Those divisions I just listed a few moments ago? We'll probably see at least one team from each of those go in the tank by early August as well. See if you can read the tea leaves through the rest of July.
I've been having a great baseball season so far...and I'm glad we're only halfway to the end! We'll keep building our bankrolls for the coming football season that will be here before you know it. Have you been struggling on your own? Let the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Las Vegas help you out.
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I'm very confident that underdogs will continue cashing tickets at a very profitable rate for the forseeable future. Don't be one of the squares that keeps losing with the Indians or Cubs, or even the Nationals, Rockies, and Yankees at big prices. Play it smart and WIN. It's time to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!