Wayne Root: Nice Stretch for Big Baseball Dogs
You know THE KING OF UPSETS really likes to see big underdogs coming through with straight up victories, whether we're talking football, basketball, or Major League Baseball. There have been a lot of those in this final week leading up to the All-Star Break. My ROOT TRUST has cashed several dogs of late as well...with a PINNACLE on Kansas City over Seattle Wednesday night, and a nice +145 hit on Toronto as a home dog over Houston Thursday.
Why are so many big dogs hitting lately? Like San Diego (+) over Cleveland twice...Toronto over the Yankees, San Francisco over Detroit, the Angels over the Twins all on Wednesday...then Atlanta over Washington in the "no-rain" delayed game Thursday and Tampa Bay over Boston with Sale. What's causing this?
*There's more parity in baseball than people realize
*Many fast-starting teams were playing over their heads
*Many bad dog pitchers were released, and replaced by better arms
*Several contenders were caught looking ahead to the All-Star Break
*Too many bettors, even the so-called "Wise Guys" love loading up on big-name pitchers
Frankly, the lines are just too high whenever All-Star type pitchers are scheduled to start. Yes, they're "likely" to get a win...but they're not as likely to win as the price is suggesting. Any favorite of -200 has to win 67% of the time to break even. Do you know how hard it is to win 67% of the time in the Majors? They have to win more than that for backers to make money.
Smart bettors like WAYNE ALLYN ROOT try to pick spots where the underdog is well-positioned to step up and make a score. We'll make money at 50% with those underdog returns...and make BIG money if we can reach 55% or make a run at 60%.
I think the biggest thing helping dog bettors right now is that oddsmakers and pundits spend too much time looking at the standings. They lock into perceptions based on season-to-date records that aren't a true reflection of what's happening right now. Kansas City is a good example of that, my PINNACLE play the other night. Everyone knows Houston and the Dodgers are hot. Fewer realize that Kansas City enters this weekend with an 18-6 record their last 24 games. Lately, they've been "a dog that should be a favorite" on multiple occasions.
I wrote about the Yankees falling apart not long ago. A very hot start still has people thinking of them as an American League power. They've lost two-thirds of their games the past few weeks, and just dropped two of three at home this week to last place Toronto.
That sets up this simple strategy...
*Look to back underdogs whose recent records are much better than their season-to-date records.
*Look to fade favorites whose recent records are much worse than their season-to-date records.
Simple, logical, and incredibly effective against what's been a very lazy marketplace of late. You can do the same thing with starting pitchers. Everyone wants to look at full season ERA as the best indicator for pitchers. But, if an early struggler got his mechanics fixed, then his bad early stats don't matter any more. If a stud in April and May is getting arm weary, or has lost the element of surprise, he's going to be mortal this month and during the dog days of late July and August.
I know most of you want to bet the big chalk. You see the Dodgers and Astros winning almost every day, and you want to ride that gravy train. Well, the April gravy train was going to be the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians...and that didn't work out very well. Those teams are still losing games they were supposed to win! The Yankees looked like a gravy train for awhile. Now they're playing like dog food.
The line will eventually catch up to the Dodgers and Astros, and chalk players won't have any options. But, dog players will have several overpriced favorites to fade, and several "mid-level" teams that are good enough to rise to the occasion as dogs in the right spots.
If you just don't have it in you to find dogs and bet them...let the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the Vegas "Walk of Fame" do all the work for you. All you have to do is sign up for THE ROOT TRUST, and I'll take it from there.
You can always test the waters first by purchasing my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Remember to check on early-bird football rates when you call. All the money we make this summer is going to roll over again once football starts.
When you see baseball underdogs cashing day after day, YOU KNOW that it's time to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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