Richie Baccellieri: How Sharps are Betting Game 4 of NBA Finals
We may be hours away from the last game of the 2017 NBA Finals. The market is certainly reacting that way, as only Golden State support has shown so far. Money that had been interested in taking shots on the Cavaliers in this series may already be tapped out!
Cavs bettors lost Game 1
Cavs bettors lost Game 2
Cavs bettors lost Game 3 (with a true punch to the gut late)
Cavs series bettors have no chance, even if they got a great price
Even if somebody just picked a spot for one or two of those (a lot of spot pickers late in the day Wednesday when Cleveland got to +4), they haven't been rewarded for their support. How can you bet on a demoralized team with no chance when those same players couldn't get the money in one of the best situational spots playoff betting have to offer?
What about the "due" theory. Maybe bettors didn't like the Cavs...but they just assumed Golden State would cool off at some point, or have a poor effort? No way to time that properly because it hasn't happened yet. Anyone who tried lost. Maybe some bettors with that mindset will come to the window late in the day Friday if the line continues to rise.
For now, here's what's been happening...
Oddsmakers posted an opener of Golden state -5.5 or -6, depending on when they went up. That was the clear adjustment higher from Game Three that I warned you about last time. Golden State has been great at finishing off their sweeps so far, with three blowout wins and covers. How could Cleveland do what Portland, Utah, and San Antonio couldn't? There was some sharp position-taking on the assumption that the public would drive the line even higher before tip-off. Get in at -5.5 or -6, buy some back on the dog at +7 to reduce risk for a bigger profit. As of now, we're sitting at Golden State -6 or -6.5 in most spots...with the assumption that "locals" and "tourist" money will come in Friday afternoon on the favorite before tip-off.
No "squares" (public wagerers) are going to bet Cleveland unless there's a big injury announcement of some kind. Sharps trying to set up middles will take +7 if it becomes available on a partial buy back. I haven't talked to any sharp constituencies who are going to see Cleveland as a great play unless something like +7.5 or +8 comes hits the board.
The Over/Under opened at 228.5, and is up to 229. This is the more interesting prop to me...because it's hard to know what kind of game we'll see if Cleveland really does throw in the towel. Is it going to turn into a playground game in the second half where both teams just run up and down the court on the way to the 230's or 240's? Or, will Golden State start running clock with a big lead in a way that keeps the game Under by 20-30 points? Remember that the series opener only made it to 204. The limited interest from sharps on the Over so far tells me that we'll see respected money hit the Under soon, particularly if 229.5 or 230 comes into play.
If Cleveland doesn't throw in the towel? It took a pretty crazy finish to get Over Wednesday night. That would encourage Under money as well. Though, I know a lot of sharps who gave up playing Unders in the 2017 playoffs long ago. Just not the year to invest actively in Unders!
My Game Four approach is up on the website and ready for you to purchase right here with your credit card. Even if this is the last basketball game of the season, we'll have daily baseball all through the summer to help you build bankrolls for what's shaping up as a very exciting football season. If you have any questions about my service, call the office at 1-888-777-4155 and they'll be happy to answer them.
There's a chance I'll be back Monday to talk about how sharps are betting in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. That would be some development! Otherwise, I'll pop in a few times through the summer to talk about sharp betting in baseball, or early preparation for college and pro football. Thanks for reading my basketball reports all through March Madness and the NBA Playoffs. We're definitely scheduled to resume our very popular NFL reports again this Fall.
I'll always do my best to help you think like a sharp and bet like a sharp.
Thanks for reading! See you again soon.
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