Wayne Root: Vegas Slow to React to NBA Over Trends
Wayne Root: Vegas Slow to React to NBA Over Trends
One of the big stories out here in Las Vegas this week involves the bath sportsbooks have been taking because "Favorite and Over" has been coming through so often in games involving the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Playoffs. Oddsmakers are calling it one of their worst months of May ever.
It's not hard to see why:
*The public loves betting favorites
*The public REALLY loves betting dominant franchises
*The public loves betting Overs
But, it's even worse than that makes it sound.
*The public loves betting PARLAYS with Favorite and Over
*The public loves sticking favorites together in parlays
*The public keeps betting when they're winning money!
When Golden State beats San Antonio in a game that goes Over the total, that helps a lot of parlays win because Golden State is paired with the Over, and maybe some baseball favorites as well, and maybe even the favorite in a playoff hockey game. It really starts to add up on any given night. There have been a lot of given nights in May. Nights where the public is rolling over what they made last night into more bets tonight...and then winning those too.
I want to focus today on why the market has been so slow to get the totals right. We've actually seen this phenomenon with favorites before. New England just had a great year against the spread in the NFL. It will happen with dominant teams in college football and college basketball too. Sometimes a team is so good that oddsmakers just can't put up a line high enough to dissuade money from coming in...and then that team is so good that they're going to cover the high spread anyway. Cleveland won its road games in Boston by 13, 44, and 33 points. What, sportsbooks are going to make the Cavs a 30-point favorite on the road? They would have gone 2-1 ATS anyway!
On totals though...the public can be backed off so to speak, because they care less about this prop. They want to have something on the team side. The total depends on whether or not it strikes them as too low. This month's totals have done that because oddsmakers and the so-called sharps aren't accepting the new realities of basketball.
*Three-pointers are being made at a much higher rate than ever before
*Three-pointers are being attempted much more often
*Teams shooting threes loving getting open looks in transition
It doesn't matter that scoring used to go down in the playoffs...or that pace used to slow down in the playoffs. Or that teams got nervous and missed more shots in the playoffs. Cleveland scored 111 or more in four of their five games vs. Boston, and topped 130 twice. Golden State scored 120 or more in three of four games vs. San Antonio.
The public saw all the points, and kept happily betting the Overs. They made a lot of money doing so! Professional bettors kept taking Unders because of past history, or a general "there's no way the teams will keep shooting this well" belief. The Wise Guys are starting to sound like squares when it comes to totals.
The first number up for Game 1 of the NBA Finals was 225.5. Hard to believe based on what we've watched in June the past couple of decades. Remember when hardfought playoff games would end 86-84, or even 79-77 in those "defense first" years? But, IT'S A NEW ERA. It's possible that 225.5 is too low if both teams are going to run and make a lot of treys.
It's certainly possible that the market has finally overshot the mark. I'll be thinking about that very seriously for my clients. I already know who I'll be releasing in Game 1 scheduled for June 1 on the team side. Maybe I'll have some Over/Unders on the ledger as well.
You can always purchase my BEST BETS in all sports right here at the website with your credit card. Between now and June 1 we'll be building our bankrolls with nightly baseball. And, the whole summer will put us in position to really unload this coming football season. There are already Week 1 lines for college football that you can bet here in town. The NFL has been up for a few weeks already.
If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Ask about long term packages that include the rest of basketball, and then MLB through either the All-Star Break or the World Series. These offer the most bang for your buck.
I'm the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in town. My clients and I have inflicted a lot of bad months on the sportsbooks all by ourselves. Are you ready to beat the books? It's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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