Finding Live Dogs in April Baseball
Wayne Root: Finding Live Dogs in April Baseball
We've just started a new baseball season. So, you know the man with more documented upset calls than anyone else in handicapping history is trying to find live dogs in MLB. I have to admit that this could be trickier out of the gate in 2017 than in other seasons. You already saw that Monday when favorites won almost all the games.
Why is 2017 different?
There may be less parity right now than there has been in DECADES in this sport. Somehow, we've drifted back to the era where a handful of teams are very clearly head and shoulders above the pack, while a few others down at the bottom might as well be Triple A teams (I'm talking to YOU San Diego Padres!).
In times of parity, dogs make a lot of sense because all the teams are about even while the betting odds get inflated because of public misperceptions. Now...what price is it going to take to make the Padres a "value" bet. Might be awhile before we know for sure. Did you see some of the Opening Day pitchers for this year's projected also-rans? Innings munchers at best!
I will be picking my spots very carefully. You should be too.
For me to back underdogs this month, I'll need:
*A proven pitcher who can control his own destiny by getting a lot of strikeouts. Many of the bad teams don't have anyone who can do this. I'll be looking more at the ace pitchers throwing for middle-of-the-pack teams if they get friendly matchups against the backend of contending rotations. This is where there will be money to be made.
*An offense that is likely to score runs. I always emphasize to you the importance of having underdogs who can score in all sports. I know a lot of people like defensive dogs. That's okay for covering spreads. If you want to need to win games outright for moneyline bets, then you need to outscore the opponent. Look for midlevel teams who can post big numbers against opposing pitchers who don't get a lot of strikeouts. Focus on the ability to draw walks and compile an impressive slugging percentage.
*A motivational intangible (or two) in my favor. That could mean home underdogs playing in front of excited early season crowds. That could be rivalry underdogs, particularly if the opposing favorite has read too many press clippings about how great they're going to be. That could mean "travel" spots where the home dog is rested but the road favorite just flew into town after playing a night game in another city. You don't normally think about "intangibles" when betting baseball. You should!
Now, I'll obviously react on-the-fly to new developments. Maybe one of the projected superpowers gets off to a slow start. You should definitely be betting opposing dogs if that's the case. Maybe there are reports about key players not getting along...or players hating their manager. That could cause contenders to be overpriced until the issues get resolved.
A final point I'd like to make involves injuries. Probably the single best time to fade a pricey favorite is when a starter on a contender is dealing with a nagging injury...but is high priced just because the game is seen as a "team mismatch." Look, even the Padres will be able to score off a pitcher whose mechanics are messed up or who lost 5 mph off his fastball because of a muscle strain. It happens every season. I fully expect to take advantage of this in the coming weeks just by monitoring the injury wire and web reports from each team's beat writers.
Best of luck to you in your search for live underdogs. If you'd like some help finding the best dogs and affordable favorites on the daily baseball board, you can always purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. We have programs for all size bankrolls. You can talk to us about signing up "just" for baseball, or "just" for the NBA. The only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the "Walk of Fame" in Las Vegas will find a way to make you a winner!
Back again soon to talk more sports betting. Thanks to all of you who made so much money with me during the NCAA Tournament. I'm very disappointed that Gonzaga didn't get there for us in the finale. I think they would have if the referees weren't so intent on being the show! We still had a great record throughout the greatest betting show on Earth. Now it's time to ride those winnings through the spring and summer
THE KING OF LAS VEGAS wins year round! So, it's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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