How to Pick Upsets in the NBA
Wayne Root: How to Pick Upsets in the NBA
With college basketball now in the rearview mirror, it’s time to focus on how to pick upsets in the NBA. I’ve put together some notes you can use all the way through the end of the regular season and the playoffs. Here are the keys from THE KING OF UPSETS for picking shockers in pro basketball!
First, you have to realize that the NBA Playoffs are designed to help the favorites advance. Talent wins out over a best-of-seven series as a general rule. And, the superior seeds have home court advantage if needed. It’s much easier to isolate spots for a “game” upset rather than a “series” upset. I won’t suggest that it’s not even worth trying. But, series prices generally aren’t a fertile ground for upsets unless you happen to find a great matchup advantage that the market has overlooked.
Once you’ve accepted that picking dogs in the NBA is about finding the right spots on the schedule, you can then hone in on this particular combination of influences:
Take UNDERDOGS who can SCORE against favorites who are likely to be flat.
It’s not enough just to have a talented underdog. They’ll just break your heart unless you also have a flat favorite in the mix. When do favorites get flat in the playoffs?
*When they get overconfident with a series lead
*Immediately after a huge blowout win
*When the press is raving too much about their greatness
*When they just had a huge defensive effort to score a victory
If you see that in the opposing favorite…then you can move on to the underdog to see if they have what it takes to score the upset. You regulars know that I emphasize offense rather than defense in most upset calls because you have to outscore your opponent to win! The so-called “defensive dogs” can cover spreads if things go well. But, they’re just as likely to hang tough most of the way until falling apart in the final minutes because they can’t score. Nothing wrong with “value bets” on defensive dogs plus the points. UPSET CALLS where you take the dog on the money line to win outright must include offensive firepower.
The other situation where WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is most likely to step in with a major underdog release involves “matchup” situations where the underdog has a weapon that the favored opponent just doesn’t have an answer for. Maybe it’s three-point shooting. Maybe it’s a big guy in the paint who overpowers a soft underbelly. Maybe it’s a defensive tactic that derails the favored offense. The X’s and O’s elements of the NBA continue to become more important with each passing season. Sometimes the underdog actually has the advantage because of a unique “rock-paper-scissors” type scenario that sets them up to be the “real” favorite in the biggest games of a series, even if they’re the lesser team in “the big picture.”
Be sure you watch early series games very closely to see if this type of advantage shows up. Sometimes it takes a game or two. But, eventually smart coaches and smart teams will figure out a way to exploit a linchpin weakness. Sometimes the smarter of the two coaches in an NBA Playoff series is the underdog!
My final point would be to emphasize HOME underdogs. That’s kind of obvious because it’s easier to call for an outright win with a 3-point dog than an 8-point dog! But, the BEST sports for big money bets (like my PINNACLE plays) will historically show up with HOME underdogs. That’s because you get these factors all coming together:
*Fired up home underdog that can score
*Flat road favorite that’s getting overconfident
*A boisterous crowd that creates a one-night super-advantage
Referees can become very intimidated by loud crowds. And, flat favorites often go into a shell before bouncing back to play great the next time out. You will find underdogs destined to win by at least 15 points (!) when the stars align. And, it’s basically a common sense telescope you’re using to find these situations.
WAYNE ALLYN ROOT isn’t THE KING OF LAS VEGAS because I’m a magician. This city has enough of those! I have a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Vegas because I’m the hardest and smartest worker in the sports betting industry. I know what works. I make sure what works for me works for my customers as well. I’m always a few steps ahead of the oddsmakers. If an oddsmaker ever gets his own star on the “Walk of Fame,” it will naturally be a few steps behind mine.
Don’t forget that you can always purchase my BEST BETS (including every PINNACLE play) right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Ask about combination packages that include the NBA Playoffs and MLB.
Best of luck to you through the rest of 2016 NBA action. Whatever the sport…whatever the month…whatever the sports betting challenge, it’s ALWAYS time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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