Is Golden State About to Burn Money
Wayne Root: Is Golden State About to Burn Money?
I've been following this story very closely. The Golden State Warriors made a fortune for the backers in the first half of the NBA season. The defending champions were so good that oddsmakers and the biggest bettors couldn't catch up! You regulars know that WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is THE KING OF UPSETS. I had to avoid fading the Warriors like the plague because the team almost never lost!
They were 48-4 heading into the All-Star Break. They're 1-1 straight up since after getting routed in Portland Friday night, before bouncing back Saturday night in a national TV game against the LA Clippers. It might be telling though that Golden State blew most of a late lead (and the cover!) in that three-point victory. The Warriors are 0-2 ATS since the Break.
Is NOW the time that bettors should start fading Golden State?
Among the reasons the answer might be yes...
*The team is dealing with some injuries, which makes it very hard to post peak results every night. There's nothing so serious that fans should start worrying about losing the championship just yet. But, making a run at that Chicago Bulls' record of 72-10 in the 1995-96 season will be tough if the team can't approach full strength.
*The team is dealing with a lot of road games and back-to-backs. You can't really say the team was "lucky" schedule-wise in the first half. Any team on the West Coast has to travel a lot during an NBA season. But, it's going to be very tough playing at a peak every night during the upcoming schedule challenge. A long road trip just started. Many back-to-backs await between now and the end of the season. And, this is happening with the team not quite at full strength.
*The team will be getting the best efforts most opponents have to offer. You certainly saw that with Portland Friday. That was the Blazers best game of the year by a mile. The hosts were breathing fire for 48 minutes and absolutely embarrassed the disinterested and unmotivated Warriors. Sure, GS will run into some tankers. But, at least the top 24 teams in the league are going to get sky high when they face the Warriors.
*The market may have finally gotten to the point where the lines are too high. Golden State's fortunes are sinking (even if they stay at championship caliber) because the prices are starting to match the historic performance levels of the first half. High tide is over...but the market may keep pricing like it's still high tide.
That's an appealing combination for an underdog bettor like me. I have a chance to get plenty of points with motivated, fresher, deeper teams over these next few weeks. Most of my client releases will still involve college basketball. That's where my edges are the biggest percentage-wise. You saw that again Saturday with:
PINNACLE: Georgia Tech (+2.5) beat Notre Dame 63-62 ACC Game of the Year!
MILLIONAIRE: Virginia Tech (+3.5) beat Florida State 83-73
INNER CIRCLE: Texas A&M (+2) beat Kentucky 79-77
NO LIMIT: Tennessee (+3) beat LSU 81-65
PERFECT PLAY: West Virginia (-3) lost to Oklahoma 76-62 (can't win 'em all!)
Nice 4-1 day for an 80% success rate...with all four underdogs winning their games outright. Do I need to remind you who has more documented upset calls than any other handicapper?! That stellar Saturday was on the heels of winning Wednesdays and Thursdays...and a PINNACLE winner on Texas Tech outright over Oklahoma.
Now...I'm not ready to flash a neon "sell" sign on Golden State just yet. We need to keep monitoring the situation. This is a great collection of talent that represents the cutting edge of basketball strategy. They're going to have big nights where they run away and hide from opponents. Still, the percentages may now have swung the other way.
*Maybe Golden State only goes 2-3 every five times they're a double digit favorite
*Maybe Golden State only goes 3-4 every seven times they're a medium favorite
That makes some money for grinders. Best case scenario for faders would be something closer to...
*Maybe Golden State goes 1-4 every five times they're a double digit favorite
*Maybe Golden State only goes 2-5 every seven times they're a medium favorite
I probably won't be posting formal selections for clients that fade Golden State unless their worst case scenario becomes apparent.
You longtime readers know that I typically don't talk about trends or angles I'm using AS they're happening. So, if I go this route...there will be radio silence here in my web articles. Monitor Golden State's results yourself so you can act appropriately with your own portfolios.
My BEST BETS can always be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. I have great rates that take you through MARCH MADNESS or the NBA Playoffs.
I'm the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the Walk of Fame here in Las Vegas. That's because I'm always looking AHEAD to what's about to happen rather than dwelling on what happened weeks ago. Nobody walks backward down a sidewalk! Walk forward with me down the road to riches. It's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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