Will There be SHOCKERS in the Biggest Bowls
Wayne Root: Will There be SHOCKERS in the Biggest Bowls?
For many years, the rule of thumb in handicapping the college bowls was to take the dogs early, and the favorites late. By that, I mean that you emphasize underdogs in the minor bowls that might see a favorite show up flat...but then you lay the points in the most important games where favorites would bring peak intensity and express their superiority.
It didn't work every year...but the percentages over the long haul made that a very sound approach.
The world is different now. Many of the early dogs are so bad that they can't cover even against flat favorites. Many of the late dogs are so good that they shouldn't be underdogs in the first place! Ohio State sure proved that last year in the Final Four. They were underdogs in both games...but then went on to utterly dominate their opponents in the stats on the way to a national title.
Let's quickly review all of last year's New Year's bowls, other traditional showcase bowls, and that championship game...
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State (+2.5) beat Arizona 38-30
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (+5.5) beat Mississippi State 49-34
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin (+6) beat Auburn 34-31 in overtime
Citrus Bowl: Missouri (-3) beat Iowa 33-17
Cotton Bowl: Michigan State (+3) beat Baylor 42-41
Rose Bowl: Oregon (-7.5) beat Florida State 59-20
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (+7.5) beat Alabama 42-35
National Championship: Ohio State (+5) beat Oregon 42-20
Underdogs went 6-2 straight up! That 75% cash rate against the spread was even better if you had played the moneylines. And we're talking about dogs that covered by 10.5, 20.5, 9, 4, 14.5, and 27 points. Four of the six covers were by double digits. Talk about SHOCKERS!
We probably won't see something that extreme this season. But, those results should at least remind you favorite-lovers that knee-jerk picks to all the favorites can break your heart. WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is THE KING OF LAS VEGAS and THE KING OF UPSETS because I break the hearts of oddsmakers!
What will trigger shockers this week? I need to protect my service plays so the lines don't move against my clients. That keeps me from talking about specific teams in this web article. More generally...
*Look to fade favorites with vulnerable defenses
*Really look to fade vulnerable defenses in good scoring conditions
*Look to fade favorites who see the bowl as a letdown
*Look to fade favorites who don't have much experience in marquee bowls
*Look to fade favorites from overrated conferences (the SEC had three losses on that prior list for example)
You regular readers know that finding favorites to fade is a vital part of upset calls. Finding a live dog may get you a cover in a close loss...or a heartbreaking non-cover if they play hard for three quarters before running out of gas. Isolate "go against" favorites if you're looking for outright shockers.
Too many bettors bet like favorites are virtually invincible in big games. You just saw that isn't true. Be sure you're spending time looking at each favorite's weaknesses. Every team has a weakness! Can this opponent exploit it?
Characteristics of the best underdogs...
*Back dogs who can SCORE POINTS!
*Back dogs with a particular strength that the opponent will struggle with
*Back dogs who are fired up about their bowl
*Back dogs who want to "make a statement" with a big performance
*Back dogs with proven bowl track records
*Back dogs with head coaches who know how to prepare
A lot of old-time handicappers talk about betting "defensive dogs" for value. There's nothing wrong with that because value adds to your bottom line. But, the BEST dogs can score enough points to win outright. Your biggest underdog winners will come from teams that can score points because of a quality quarterback or a strong running game. Look at those winning point totals last year! The winning underdogs scored 38, 49, 31, 42, 42, and 42.
Defensive dogs have their place. Offensive dogs grab games by the jugular and don't let up. Can you find any explosive underdogs who will be taking the field in the next several hours?
I certainly have big plans for the next several hours! You can purchase all of my top college football plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS.
Let me be the first to wish each and every one of you a very Happy New Year! I'll be back with you this weekend to talk about the NY Jets/Buffalo Bills game that will determine whether or not the Jets make the playoffs. We started the season focusing on New York state football, particularly with Rex Ryan moving to the Bills. Fitting that we end the regular season that way!
The most important college football games of the bowl season are about to begin. That means it's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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