Early College Basketball Poll Rankings Mean Nothing
Wayne Root: Early College Basketball Poll Rankings Mean Nothing!
If you're like most sports bettors, you're just now thinking about college basketball. Yes, the season began a couple of weeks ago. You were too busy with football! And, then the Thanksgiving holiday. Now...most college football teams have ended their regular seasons...and ESPN is tempting you with some great college basketball matchups in the Big 10-ACC Challenge.
Great! Join the fun with WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
Just don't waste time reading the national poll rankings if you're trying to evaluate teams. November and December are the WORST times to give credence to the polls because sportswriters and head coaches are mostly just putting up guesses. They'll get most of the obvious stuff right...but nobody needs them for that. They'll make glaring mistakes though that could throw YOU off track for weeks.
*They'll overrate many of last year's powers
*They'll overrate hyped freshmen
*They'll overreact to one great performance, or one bad one
*They'll try to stay in step with their peers rather than finding anything groundbreaking
You could do this for every season ever played. Go through the rankings on December 1 and compare them to what happened in March Madness. Sure, some teams were evaluated properly. But, again...everybody gets the obvious stuff right! Look at all the mistakes. Count up all the teams who were supposed to be pretty good but barely registered in March. Or, go the other direction and compare the Sweet 16 of March Madness to the poll from a few months earlier.
Reading the polls makes you dumber! It's not a shortcut to handicapping excellence. If anything, fading the polls is a shortcut to excellence! At least, it's a shortcut to putting value on your side.
What should you do to handicap if you're eliminating the polls from your process? I'm not going to tell you all of my secrets. But, if you're just now ready to get started, you should grab your favorite computer rankings and then start adjusting those based on new results. I don't want to recommend anyone in particular because even the computer guys make a lot of early mistakes! That's one of the downsides of "analytics" nobody wants to talk about. The computer guys are better than sportswriters...but not as good as professional bettors! Use your favorite computer ratings as a starting point, then adjust based on results and your own expertise to make those ratings your own.
To get a read on how professional bettors have the teams rated, study line moves off the openers every day. That's where secrets are unveiled. You may not know WHY the Wise Guys like a certain team. But, if an opening line moves quickly from -2 to -5, it's obvious that pro bettors respect the favorite.
There are always key differences between a pro bettor's "top 25" and the polls. The obvious teams are all the same...but what happens beyond that is what separates true insight from misguided groupthink. Of course, pro's don't even "rank" teams in the manner of a poll anyway. It doesn't matter if somebody's #14 or #23. In fact, the margin for error is such that you can't create a meaningful "totem pole." There are "classes" featuring teams who are very similar in true quality. Basketball has a kind of "rock-paper-scissors" element that helps some styles thrive in some circumstances but struggle in others.
Quick example: Shaka Smart's teams like to full court press. They can beat a top 10 team that struggles vs. the press, but lose to a #100 team that has good guards. How do you "rank" that? You can't. But, you can bet on his teams vs. bad guards and fade his teams vs. good guards! Think like a Las Vegas bettor, not a pollster!
I've lived in Las Vegas for decades because I've always thought like a bettor. I'm the only man in the industry who has a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Vegas. I'm always a few steps ahead of the oddsmakers. If an oddsmaker ever gets a star, his will naturally be a few steps behind mine!
I'm really looking forward to the Big 10-ACC challenge and the other college hoops action coming up in December. You can purchase my BEST BETS in all sports right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. This is a great week to get started because we'll...
*Build bankroll with early and midweek basketball
*Score big in the college football conference championship games
*Pyramid our profits even higher in the NFL
There are going to be GAME OF THE YEAR caliber releases all over the card. That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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