College Powers Still Getting Crushed Against the Spread
Wayne Root: College Powers Still Getting Crushed Against the Spread!
I guess I should just make this a weekly feature. We keep seeing a re-run every week...yet nobody but WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is talking about it! That's because I'm THE KING OF UPSETS, while the mainstream media is the king of hyping overrated teams.
The top eight teams in the championship committee's poll managed a woeful 1-7 record against market expectations this past Saturday. The only cover was when Alabama annihilated a glorified high school team from Charleston Southern. Everyone else in the top eight that had to play somebody couldn't cover their spreads.
#1 CLEMSON could only win by 20 as 30 point favorites over Wake Forest. They barely scored the spread in a 33-13 victory. There's a lot to like about Clemson this season. And, they do seem to be a legitimate Final Four caliber team. They might get in even if they lose to North Carolina in a couple of weeks! But the market is pricing them too high.
#2 ALABAMA won big, as we already discussed.
#3 OHIO STATE was embarrassed by Michigan State. Their pointspread shot up over two touchdowns when it was realized that Connor Cook wouldn't be able to go for Michigan State. Ohio State only scored two touchdowns in the whole game...on very short drives off of turnovers. This was the first real test for the Buckeyes all season. They flunked in flying colors! Then, their head coach was blasted by players in postgame interviews. He deserved it.
#4 NOTRE DAME barely scored more than their pointspread because they lost the ball FIVE times in Fenway Park against Boston College. Runs, hits, and ERRORS is right! Only a 19-16 victory as a two-touchdown favorite. The Irish could have really solidified their position given Ohio State's loss. Big game at Stanford on deck.
#5 IOWA won comfortably over Purdue...but couldn't cash their tickets against a very high price of -22. The Hawkeyes control their own destiny for a Final Four bid. But, they'll have to win at Nebraska in a few days, and then win the Big 10 Championship game vs. either Michigan State, Michigan, or Ohio State.
#6 OKLAHOMA STATE was another OSU to get embarrassed. This time it was the defense (rather than the offense of Ohio State) that was exposed as not ready for the big time. The Cowboys allowed 700 yards to Baylor in a double-digit market miss. They should have lost by more than they did.
#7 OKLAHOMA lost their quarterback in the first half...then almost blew their whole season with a second half collapse. OU did hold on to beat very shorthanded TCU 30-29 as double digit favorites. We'll have to see the condition of Baker Mayfield heading into Bedlam. OU doesn't quite control their own destiny...but a big win over Oklahoma State might get them into the Final Four.
#8 FLORIDA was lucky to beat horrible Vanderbilt recently, and was even more lucky to beat even worse Florida Atlantic. The Gators were 31-point favorites and had to go overtime! It's an indictment of how bad college football is this year that this Florida team could be anywhere near the top eight.
Let's stop right there...because #9 Michigan State and #10 Baylor were both facing teams higher up on the ladder. As we've noted in recent articles...that's been a great indicator for a fired up performance. Sparty and the Bears both covered easily. The top eight was 1-7 ATS, with Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Florida ALL missing the mark by DOUBLE DIGITS!
I know it's difficult for many of you to fade the top teams in the rankings. You've been hearing how great they are from the media. It feels safer to ask "great" teams to get the money for you than it does to hope they'll screw up. I've been exposing the fallacy of this for YEARS...decades really if you go back to my "Don't Make Sense" lectures on Proline. Plays that seem like they don't make sense actually make A LOT of sense because:
*Underdogs come in fired up
*Favorites are flat and overconfident (or nervous and tentative)
*Oddsmakers raise the number for ranked favorites because of public betting
*There's more parity in college football than is commonly realized
How much is all that worth? Think of it this way...we know the top eight teams went 1-7 ATS. If you had moved the line A TOUCHDOWN in their favor, they still would have gone 2-6 ATS! There are so-called sharps who will tell you that the market is "perfected" close to kick off because everything has been accounted for. WRONG!
Stop being wrong...and start being RIGHT with the only man in the sports betting industry who has a star on the Walk of Fame here in Las Vegas. I don't win 'em all...but clients always get my best shots. You can purchase my best basketball and football plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS.
Back with you in a couple of days to talk about finding upsets in college and pro football over Thanksgiving Weekend. Then, late in the week I'll talk about the big NFC East rematch between the NY Giants and Washington Redskins. That's a tight division...and both Philadelphia and Dallas will play on Thursday to set the stage for G-men/Skins.
The championship chase is heating up. That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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