Playoff-Distracted College Teams are Overpriced
Wayne Root: Playoff-Distracted College Teams are Overpriced!
The undisputed KING OF UPSETS scored big last Saturday with Nebraska outright over Michigan State (Pinnacle) and Oklahoma State outright over TCU (Inner Circle). Indiana almost made it three on the day but they faded very late against Iowa to break our hearts. Still, a winning day overall…and a reminder that teams ranked in the top 10 of the tournament committee poll will likely have trouble covering spreads!
*They start dreaming about the Final Four
*They believe too many of their press clippings
*They forget there's a huge target on their backs
*Their head coaches start to get very conservative with play calling
*They run into opponents who are going to bring peak intensity
Fading the ranked powers in the final month of the college football season has always been a smart strategy for those reasons. Now, the creation of a selection committee for the Final Four only magnifies the issue. Look at how the "first" top 10 fared against the spread last week.
#1 Clemson was in a true war with ACC Atlantic rival Florida State. Dog bettors won that one at +10.5 or better even though FSU faded in the final moments to lose by 10. Anyone laying that 10 with Clemson was lucky to get a push. A couple plays here and there…and this was an FSU victory.
#2 LSU…was outclassed by #4 Alabama in a battle of top 5 teams. Whenever powers collide in November, you want to think about the team with the worse seeding. They're not going to let down against somebody higher up the ladder. Note that WAYNE ALLYN ROOT had a rare major release on a favorite here. Alabama -6.5 was my Power Play.
#3 Ohio State barely scored the pointspread of 23 in a 28-14 victory. Hasn't Cardale Jones been a huge disappointment? Though, losing the offensive coordinator to Houston has hurt the Buckeyes explosiveness as well.
#5 Notre Dame did play well on the road in Pittsburgh after having a danger game at Temple a week earlier. Teams coming off a scare sometimes bounce back strong. Credit to Notre Dame here as the first team on our list to cover a spread against somebody below them on the totem pole.
#6 Baylor had to sweat a road game at Kansas State last Thursday. That's a Wildcats team that was obliterated by Oklahoma not too long ago, and who is nowhere near a vintage Bill Snyder entry. Baylor didn't look like a Final Four team at all in the second half of this road tester.
#7 Michigan State was upset by Nebraska…which I already told you was my PINNACLE release this week in the colleges. Both Sparty and Ohio State have been huge disappointments in the very weak Big 10. MSU needed a miracle to beat Michigan, and failed to win a nailbiter here against an opponent that usually loses those!
#8 TCU was blasted by Oklahoma State, which was on our card. And, I mean BLASTED. The defense kept allowing big play after big play. The offense put up a lot of yardage, but lost the turnover category 4-0. The Horned Frogs were lucky to win at Texas Tech (a team OSU crushed), and probably shouldn't have been in the Top 10 based on raw talent.
#9 Iowa was very lucky to score late and cover at Indiana. This is only the second team on our list to cover a spread! They weren't impressive in doing so.
#10 Florida was very lucky to win straight up as huge favorites over Vanderbilt. This is one of the most embarrassing wins of the year by any power. Florida looked awful all day. Vandy has no offense, so wasn't able to take advantage even while covering easily.
Fading the top 10 went 7-2 against the spread…for a 78% cash rate. Squares backing all the teams higher up in the rankings (hopefully you weren't one of them!) went 2-6-1 if they pushed Clemson at a favorable line. If they didn't shop…what an ugly Saturday!
I'm not going to promise that the same exact thing is going to happen this week. But, these dynamics happen every year…and YOU should be looking for places to make smart upset calls. I already told you why it's good to fade the ranked. Here's what to look for with upset-minded dogs.
*Teams who can SCORE POINTS because you have to score to win
*Teams who are trying to climb the ladder by taking out someone higher
*Teams with revenge off of last year, or the last few years
*Teams who will enjoy a loud home field (like Okie State did)
I'm not saying any more because I don't want to give out additional hints about what's coming up this week! You can always purchase MY daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. (All sports, including college football, pro football, and the NBA.) If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS.
Back with you midweek to talk about that Buffalo/NY Jets Thursday nighter in the NFL. We talked A LOT about those teams earlier this season. Will be great to see Rex Ryan return to his old stomping grounds. Those are MY old stomping grounds too…so you'd better be back for that article.
Online or in the office, it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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