Why Underdogs Offer the Most Betting Value
Tony Salinas: Why Underdogs Offer the Most Betting Value
I've talked with you about several different teams from my old stomping grounds this season. But, I haven't had a chance yet to lay out my general handicapping approach for all of you who are relatively new to this website. Since the college schedule isn't particularly jam-packed with thrilling matchups this week...it seemed like a good time to tackle that head on.
TONY SALINAS bets a lot of underdogs!
I will occasionally step out on favorites...but that's much more likely to be in an off-game that hardly anyone's paying attention to. For the most part, in ANY game in ANY sport, it's underdog or pass.
Why do I exclude so many favorites? I'm trying to WIN! It's very clear that, over the long haul, you're going to get the best of it by fading favorites. That's because:
*The public likes to bet favorites, so lines are shaded against that money
*The media overhypes top teams...and oddsmakers often fall for that hype
*Computers are playing a bigger role than ever, and THEY overrate favorites
*You typically have a motivational edge with underdogs
*There's a tendency for favorites to get overconfident and complacent
Obviously you can think of a game off the top of your head where the favorite seemed obvious and won a blowout. But, what about the last 50 games you were thinking about? Or the last 100? What about a few DECADES of football betting.
Taking an underdog usually gets you 1-2 free points (sometimes many more), and does so with what is often the much more motivated team. OBVIOUSLY that's the right way to go. Once you've thought this through completely, it becomes much harder to lay the favorite. You know you're getting 1-2 points the worst of it while also risking a flat performance.
Why do computers mess this up? Shouldn't all those kid nerds have the records? What happens here is that they program all the stats into their computers...and what occurs in blowouts warps the numbers. Imagine, for the sake of example that a good team is favored by -10 over three straight games. They win one blowout by 40 points when everything clicks...but then win the other games by 7 and 4. That's a combined win of 51 points, which is 17 per game. But...they didn't win by 17 in each game game...they went 1-2 ATS because of one blowout and two closer ones.
Don't use averages when making projections! Try to figure out what's most likely to happen. Blowouts are fun to win when you had the right side. What's the point of having fun once then losing the next two?
If you're like most bettors, you take way too many favorites. You feel like a king when you're right. How's your bankroll holding up? What does your lifetime bankroll look like? Could you survive in Las Vegas for a year or two as a professional gambler with your approach? How about a few decades? Betting too many favorites is like spending too much time at the craps table, or playing blackjack without keeping track of the count. Professional gamblers bet sports and play poker because they can make a living exploiting mistakes that tourists make.
I should also tell you that TONY SALINAS is an action player. You've probably heard that it's best to be picky or you'll lose your bankroll. That's true for tourists and the general public. But, anyone WHO HAS AN EDGE should be betting more games. That's how your edge piles up. Pro bettors aren't trying to win every pick like it's a lock. They're trying to go 11-9 every 20 bets, or 55-45 every 100 bets.
I'm certainly not telling you to start betting recklessly. But, if you do believe you have an edge...and your approach is cranking out more underdog bets than favorite bets...then you should consider a greater presence across the card. If those ugly dogs in out-of-the-way games you're considering for light bets go 6-5, you've made money. Your buddy is thinking about over-betting 11 TV favorites and is about to go 4-7 while screaming all day and night!
My approach isn't for everybody. It might not be for you. Maybe you don't have the discipline to bet responsibly within an action-minded attack. Maybe you're too nervous to root for underdogs all day because you just don't trust them. Consider this...if you're not disciplined and you hate rooting for underdogs, YOU SHOULDN'T BE BETTING!
Because I play so many games, it wouldn't be practical to sell my colossal card. I pick out my best handful of team sides, and then my best Over/Unders to make available to paying clients. That way, you get a mix of action and discipline. If what I'm saying today makes sense to you, you can try out my service this weekend right here at the website. Make a few clicks and have your credit card handy.
If you have any questions, call the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155 and ask about TONY SALINAS.
See you again next week. As of now, I'm currently planning to talk about Oklahoma State. Haven't gotten around to them yet in our tour of Texas and its border states. The Cowboys are likely to be knocking on the door of the top 10 with an undefeated record just as they reach the toughest part of their schedule.
Talk to you next time. Keep GETTING THE BEST OF IT WITH TONY SALINAS!
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