College Defenses Wearing Down
Wayne Root: College Defenses Wearing Down
It should have been clear to you this past weekend in college football that many defenses across the nation are wearing down. They're a step slow (or two steps slow!) and aren't tackling with the same intensity. A few elite defenses are still getting the job done (though Michigan allowed more yards than expected against Michigan State, for example). Generally speaking...
*Great defenses are falling back to being merely "good"
*Good defenses are falling back to being "average"
*Average defenses are starting to get bullied
*Bad defenses are just watching opponents run by them to the end zone
What's happening? Normal attrition because of injuries and fatigue is now a much bigger factor because of game pace. Modern spread offenses run a lot more plays than past styles did. It's natural that defenses haven't yet learned how to pace themselves for a 12-game schedule in this era. Also...lesser teams just don't have the depth! Substitutes are getting more playing time...and those subs aren't very good.
I should also note that many teams haven't had a bye week yet. It's really tough to play seven or eight weeks in a row without a break in the modern game. Teams who gave themselves a bye in early October will be better suited to stay tough through the rest of the month than those who have gone all season without a break. This REALLY needs to be on your handicapping radar right now!
As THE KING OF UPSETS here in Las Vegas...with more correct outright upset calls than any other handicapper in documented history...I'm obviously angling to find underdogs who can exploit this dynamic.
*I want to go AGAINST favorites who are showing signs of fading on defense. I've always told you that a smart underdog bet has to SCORE POINTS to get you the money. I will bet "defensive dogs" for value. But, my strongest underdog bets will usually feature an offense that's going to put something on the scoreboard. That's easier now with defenses fading. We're going to see some underdogs EXPLODE over the next month when talented quarterbacks exploit disappearing defenses.
*I want to bet ON underdogs who have enjoyed a recent bye, or who have otherwise established that they can still get some stops. Many games are now turning into shootouts where any punt is a virtual turnover. You almost have to think of this like basketball, and invest in the team that's going to get more second half stops. (With this in mind, look at turnover differential as well...underdogs who are likely to win the turnover category are great bets in the second half of the season.)
*You longtime customers know I rarely release Over/Unders. I may bet some personally, but my clients are generally going to get the best team sides on every card because my information is better locked in with that proposition. For those of you who like betting totals...it's okay now to bet Over some of those high Vegas totals because they're not going to be high enough! A slew or recent college Unders hurt bettors who weren't thinking through their investments. NOW that defenses are tired, you're going to get more shootouts where both defenses begin the game "out of gas" and it only gets worse for them. Again...paying attention to who hasn't had a bye yet will help you in this area.
I'm the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Las Vegas. If an oddsmaker ever gets one...his will naturally be a few steps behind mine because I'm always ahead of the game. One of the reasons this is true is because I know how to adjust on the fly to react to what's happening on the football field or basketball court. Speaking as a veteran in the industry, I think this is one of the biggest problems with the new breed of analytics "quants" who fall in love with the numbers they crunch. They don't realize that defensive stats accumulated in the first half of a season may cause misreads about what's going to happen in the second half of a season. If one of these numbers gurus ever gets a start on the "Walk of Fame," his will also be a few steps behind mine!
You can always purchase my daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Be sure you check on combination packages that include the rest of the LCS action and the World Series.
I will talk to you again later this week as major stories continue to percolate in baseball, college football, and pro football. So much money to be made! When there's money to be made it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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