Overconfidence is Killing College Powers
Wayne Root: Overconfidence is Killing College Powers
I've been emphasizing this point with you a lot this season...and it becomes a point of emphasis every single year. Highly regarded college football teams are consistently overpriced in the sports betting markets because oddsmakers and the general public don't understand the realities behind the mindset of players.
Look at what happened to Ohio State and Michigan State his past Saturday...
#1 Ohio State barely survived Indiana...missing the spread by 14 points
#2 Michigan State barely survived Purdue...missing the spread by 20 points
Ohio State was seemingly gift-wrapped a return visit to the National Championship tournament before the 2015 season even started. They've been playing like they didn't do any preparation at all! Winning and covering at Virginia Tech has been the highlight of their season...and they didn't look particularly good that night. The Buckeyes haven't covered a game since!
Michigan State hasn't covered a game all season! And, that home TV win over Oregon didn't look so special after Utah got through with the Ducks. Michigan State isn't one of the two best teams in the country...they might not even be top 10 or top 20 the way they're playing. That national ranking is a joke because the players believed all the media hype.
When players spend weeks hearing about how great they are...and how easy their path is going to be, they don't bring the fire it takes to get results. Instead of an "us against the world" mentality, they have a "let's go celebrate what we haven't even won yet" attitude. Very hard to cover big pointspreads with that mindset...and those teams have to deal with big pointspreads all the time because the public wants to bet them.
As I've also mentioned...NEW teams into the stratosphere tend to let down once they get there. Their hunger disappears as they bask in the glow of media coverage. Ole Miss beat Alabama a couple of weeks ago. They haven't covered since. This past Saturday...
#3 Ole Miss was routed by Florida...missing the spread by 34 points
What an embarrassment. Florida may be improving under their new head coach. But, they shouldn't be winning a matchup like this 38-10! The market started pricing Ole Miss like uncrowned SEC Champs...just as the Rebels decided they didn't need to work hard and bring fire to the field any more.
There were three more examples of that just a bit down in the rankings. All of these teams found themselves in the playoff discussion after earning some good early season results...
#7 UCLA was routed at home by Arizona State...missing the spread by 28 points
#8 Georgia was routed at home by Alabama...missing the spread by 29 points
#9 LSU struggled with horrible Eastern Michigan...missing the spread by 23 points
I've talked about six games today involving top nine teams. All six of those teams missed the spread by at least two touchdowns...five of the six missed by at least 20 points...and half of them missed by four touchdowns or more!
So, this isn't a case of the lines being off by a few points. We're not talking about Ohio State or UCLA seeing their game inflated by just a bit. You'll hear oddsmakers say that those games may have 1-3 points of air in them because of public betting. How about 1-3 touchdowns!
Look, if Ohio State, Michigan State, and LSU are prepared, fired up, and ready...then there are 1-3 points of air in their lines. If not, then it's 1-3 touchdowns. It's always crystal clear every season. That's why WAYNE ALLYN ROOT has more documented upset calls than any other handicapper in history...I know what drives upsets (note that Florida and Arizona State were part of The Root Trust this week!).
Of course...TCU and Baylor were ranked teams who managed to win blowouts this past Saturday. Not every superpower failed to cover. Those with potent offenses can run up the score when things are going well. TCU happened to catch Texas in a demoralized state after the Horns blew two straight games with last second special teams miscues. Baylor caught Texas Tech the week after a heartbreaker. Handicap the teams...handicapping the schedule spots...and handicap player mindsets. That will tell you when to step in...and when to sit out.
THE KING OF LAS VEGAS is always ready to step in...that's why I'm the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in the sports betting capital of the world. My daily BEST BETS can always be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Be sure to check on combination packages that include the baseball postseason through the World Series.
Brent Musburger used to call it "BCS Chaos." The terminology is different, but the phenomenon is the same. We still have WEEKS to take advantage in the 2015 college football season. And, you know my edges in the NFL and MLB Playoffs will continue to pay off as well. Tired of losing on your own? It's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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