October Should Bring Even More College Upsets
Wayne Root: October Should Bring Even More College Upsets
As the calendar approaches October, college football approaches the month where MAJOR upsets become very common. I've scored many outright SHOCKER calls on PINNACLE plays (and others) over my many years here in Las Vegas because I know that upsets are ripe for the picking. (Just this past Saturday, I nailed an outright winner on Utah over badly overrated Oregon, and should have won outright with Texas Tech over TCU, and Arkansas over Texas A&M!)
Why is that? What's so special about the "middle" month of the college football season?
*Elite teams have played four games...which means the excitement of the start of the season has worn off...but the lure of peak championship intensity is still several weeks away. There's a lull in proceedings. Top teams are most vulnerable to upset when they're having trouble getting fired up every week. It's tough to be flat in September because youngsters have been waiting months to play. Nobody's flat when divisional or conference championships are on the line in November. In October...consistent focus becomes a challenge.
*Elite teams are also in serious danger of overconfidence. If they've been winning easily, they lose that element of "fear" that had been driving them to greatness. And, it's easy for youngsters to get caught up in all the media hype that surrounds undefeated or recently hot teams. Mix that with the first element...and it's a BIG problem. You have overconfident players who are starting to get bored!
*Potential darkhorse teams are getting things figured out. It often takes sleeper teams a few weeks to get everything lined up properly after personnel or coaching changes. A sluggish September that made oddsmakers and the public pessimistic is followed by a strong October when it all clicks. Be sure you're paying attention to all the new starting quarterbacks or first-year head coaches who have been getting their bearings in the last couple of weeks. See if you can find at least one in every conference.
*Potential darkhorse teams who have already suffered a loss bring peak intensity to their biggest games. They want to make up for the earlier embarrassment. They want to let their conference know that the rest of the year is going to be different. That's a powerful combination for an underdog...getting their ducks in a row AND having a chip on their shoulder.
I have had seasons where at least three of the four October Saturdays features upset calls against teams rated #1 or #2. That doesn't happen every year. But, the stage is set for something like that every year! And it's not uncommon at all to see teams in the top five or further down in the top 10 suddenly look mortal. I'm confident October of 2016 will be no different. In fact...many of the most hyped teams have looked more vulnerable than usual. Upsets may be easier this year than in any other recent season! Go look at what the top teams in the Preseason rankings have been doing against the spread so far!
I'm not going to tip my hand here in a web article because winning PINNACLE plays and the rest of my ROOT TRUST portfolio is of vital importance for my paying customers. I've put you on alert. You do-it-yourselfers have time this week to outline the full month.
*Isolate the current top 10 in the rankings for study (and be ready to add new teams through the month).
*Find their most dangerous opponents through the month of October in terms of raw talent.
*Find their most troublesome schedule spots in terms of sandwich games or potential lookaheads or letdowns. You should have done this before the season started. Many of you didn't! Now's the time to have the right spots circled.
*Monitor ESPN's website and GameDay telecasts to see which teams and star players are getting the most hype. Kids read ESPN, and all that attention can go to their heads. This is going to become very relevant for teams who have just recently surged into prominent spots in the polls.
*Pay even closer attention whenever Las Vegas linesmakers are quoted in stories or appear on radio shows. Oddsmakers are prone to groupthink where they all overrate teams getting the most media attention. You've seen dramatic examples of that already in September. This has been a great "inverse" indicator over the years. If oddsmakers are hyping a team, that team is about to get upset.
I know I'm excited about what's coming up this month. The drama has just started! My BEST BETS can always be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Be sure to check on combination packages that include baseball through the World Series.
The only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the local "Walk of Fame" is ready to make even bigger handicapping headlines in October. YOU WON'T BELIEVE what's going to be happening in the next few weeks. That means it's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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