Finding SHOCKERS in Week One of the NFL
Wayne Root: Finding SHOCKERS in Week One of the NFL
Week One of the 2015 NFL season is here. And, I have to say that I can't recall ever seeing an opening weekend that was this primed for upsets! WAYNE ALLYN ROOT has always been known as THE KING OF UPSETS! I have more documented upset calls than anyone else in industry history. If I'm seeing potential upsets all over the card, you'd better pay attention!
The first thing you should note is that there are a whopping EIGHT home underdogs on the card. Winning on the road is very tough in the NFL. It may get easier later in the season if you're facing a host that's already thrown in the towel. Nobody's thrown in the towel in Week One! Granting that any team priced as a home underdog in the first week of a new season likely has some issues they're dealing with...it's very unlikely that they're all going to be outmatched.
To find Week One upset possibilities with HOME UNDERDOGS:
*Look for hosts that are bringing new optimism to the 2015 season
*Look for hosts who played well in their Preseason dress rehearsals
*Look for hosts who have young talent that's likely to improve in 2015
*Look to fade visitors who have a bigger game on deck next week
*Look to fade visitors who had some issues on offense in the Preseason
*Look to fade visitors who were overrated by the betting markets last season
I'm not going to get too specific because I need to protect my service clients. Those six hints are more than enough to get you on the right track for finding home dog upsets this Sunday and Monday.
Now...to be clear...I'm not suggesting you bet all the home underdogs and hope for the best percentage-wise. I could very easily have a major release on a cheap road favorite if my indicators are suggesting a mismatch. You saw that during the exhibition slate. THE KING OF UPSETS cashed several cheap favorites! Enter a weekend knowing that upsets always happen. Do your best to find when and where they'll be.
To refresh your memory, last year's Week One home dog upsets:
Atlanta (+3) beat New Orleans 37-34
Miami (+3.5) beat New England 33-20
That may not look like a lot. There were only three home underdogs a year ago instead of eight! Two of the three won their games outright. Dallas failed as a home dog vs. San Francisco if you were wondering who the other one was.
Now, moving on to road underdogs. There are a lot of competitive road dogs this week...which you can deduce from seeing so few high pointspreads. As of press time, the biggest spread of the week is actually in the Thursday night opener when Pittsburgh (a playoff team from last season) visits defending World Champion New England. This suggests that some road upsets may be in store as well from quality visitors (or against non-quality hosts!)
To find Week One upset possibilities with ROAD UNDERDOGS:
*Look for visitors who can score points! (You have to score to win!)
*Look for visitors who aren't distracted by a high profile home game next week
*Look for visitors who have a solid road history under their current head coach
*Look to fade hosts who had difficulty scoring in the Preseason
*Look to fade hosts who are starting unproven (or overrated) quarterbacks
*Look to fade hosts who have a divisional game on deck next week
You saw in that review of home dogs last year that Atlanta and Miami both scored in the 30's. You're about to see that last year's road dog upsets all scored at least 20. I'm always emphasizing this to you! Too many pundits worry about "defensive dogs." It's okay to bet those for value. But, if you're hoping to make an upset call that wins for you on the moneyline, you need teams who can score points. The best combinations are focused and motivated underdogs who can score...facing distracted or overrated favorites who may struggle on offense.
Now, a look at last year's Week One road dog upsets:
Minnesota (+3) beat St. Louis 34-6
Cincinnati (+1) beat Baltimore 23-16
Buffalo (+7) beat Chicago 23-20
Tennessee (+3) beat Kansas City 26-10
Carolina (+5) beat Tampa Bay 20-14
That's right FIVE of them...with four of the five being double digit covers and the full sampling being getting there by at least a touchdown.
If you're like most sports bettors, your natural tendency is to look for favorites to bet. This review of last season's opening week should help discourage you from that. FORCE YOURSELF to think about underdogs and upsets this week. Oddsmakers know less about NFL teams right now than they will at any point through the rest of the season.
You can purchase my game day BEST BETS in all sports right here at the website with your credit card. The only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Las Vegas can also be reached by way of the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Call during normal business hours Monday through Friday to talk to one of my representatives.
I'll have two more reports this week...one for an interesting "sleeper" college football matchup...and then a weekend preview with sourced information from New York for that Browns/Jets opener. You've been waiting all summer for the NFL to get here. LET'S WIN FROM THE GET-GO! It's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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