MLB Trades May Set Up Overpriced Pitchers
Wayne Root: MLB Trades May Set Up Overpriced Pitchers
This past weekend, the Kansas City Royals acquired ace pitcher Johnny Cueto from the Cincinnati Reds to bolster their starting rotation in advance of the pennant race and playoffs. More big name pitchers will be changing teams in short order. It's just a matter of the details being worked out regarding which prospects will be going where in the transaction. There may be a big trade between the time I write this and the time you read this!
There's already talk of Cole Hamels ending up with the Los Angeles Dodgers after he made headlines with that big no-hitter in Chicago this past weekend. Can you imagine a playoff rotation of Kershaw-Greinke-Hamels?!
The important thing for sports bettors to remember is that these late season acquisitions typically have a lesser impact than was expected. Detroit acquired David Price from Tampa Bay last season. They didn't reach the World Series, did they? In fact, Price's name is in trade talks once again because Detroit's championship hopes aren't particularly bright at the moment. No sure things!
Here are some of the many reasons that "big names in new places" underachieve...
*Those players feel tremendous pressure to perform because a team just paid a dear price to get them. That pressure causes them to take a step or two backward. Not every Major Leaguer is built to perform under pennant race pressure.
*Those players are remembered for their peak performances...but nobody can be awesome all the time. Many players turn out to be "disappointments" because expectations were wrong...not because they struggled. Those players "underachieved" faulty expectations.
*Opponents get sky high for their chance to earn a victory over a high profile team changer. Any new game "feels" like a playoff game even for non-contenders.
*Pitchers moving from the National League to the American League are joining a tougher league (based on recent Interleague history) that also uses a Designated Hitter in the lineup. Is Cueto ready for that adjustment in Kansas City? Hitters doing the same are running into a tougher caliber of pitcher too.
*Ballpark factors are still poorly understood by the mainstream media and casual fans. If you acquire a pitcher who had great stats in a pitcher's park, he's not necessarily going to be anything special in your park if it's neutral or favors hitters. Ask the Texas Rangers and Colorado Rockies about their eternal efforts to find "better pitching." Often the biggest disappointments are sluggers who get traded from good hitting environments to poor ones. Most of the current media buzz is about pitchers...but some hitters may be changing uniforms too.
It's important for BETTORS to remember that Vegas lines are generally based on perceptions. The false perceptions that these trades create might bring about some great underdog value on opponents. And, the fact that many stars will struggle under the pressure only magnifies that. I can predict fairly confidently right now...even before some of these trades are made...that we'll see favorites of -250 or so get rocked early in the game by big underdogs.
You longtime readers know that WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is the documented KING OF UPSETS! I will definitely be watching these new faces in new places very closely in the coming weeks in hopes of finding underdog value. It will be difficult for me to back any of these high priced mercenaries except when they're affordable road teams against other pennant contenders. I may fade Hamels (wherever he ends up) at -250 at home (or pass), but take him at -125 on the road against, the Cardinals, Pirates, or whoever. It's always about value in baseball betting.
I hope you will continue to build bankroll with me through the summer as we gear up for football. The NFL Preseason is approaching very quickly. You can purchase my daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS during normal business hours. Enjoy big savings on early bird football prices!
Have you been struggling on your own? Have you been disappointed in past football seasons because your own picks just weren't up to snuff? Maybe you should "acquire" WAYNE ROOT for your team! You don't have to trade any young prospects either. Just a small initial investment will set you up for A BIG SCORE! It's time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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