Wayne Root: Can the Cavaliers SHOCK the Warriors in NBA Finals?
We’re still a few days away from tipoff, but the 2015 NBA Championship matchup featuring the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers is already one of the most anticipated Finals battles in many years.
Obviously, THE KING OF UPSETS is hard at work determining whether or not the Cleveland Cavaliers are worthy of a SHOCKER call for my clients at series prices ranging from +190 to +210. To get value, a bettor would have to believe that the Cavaliers would win more than 1 out of every 3 hypothetical series played between these teams. Or, he’d have to have a very strong inkling that THIS particular real-world battle would go to Cleveland because of unique dynamics that are in play this time around.
*Kevin Love will miss the series with an injury
*Kyrie Irving is far from certain to return to 100% health
*Golden State has home court advantage
It’s hard to have a kneejerk reaction that Cleveland is a “steal” at that price. Sure, they’re capable of winning…but do those prices offer value when you consider all the angles?
I’m not ready to tip my hand yet for the series. And, it’s okay to pass the series prices and jump in aggressively on a game-by-game basis no matter who you like in a matchup. I will tell you this. If WAYNE ALLYN ROOT does make a series upset call for clients before Game One, it will be for the following reasons:
*Cleveland’s current rotation is MUCH better than many in the markets realize. Those using full season stats are paying too much attention to the bad results that happened before midseason trades. And, they’re also overrating the impact of the loss of Kevin Love. Quants have him as an MVP type player because he looks good in stat breakdowns when he’s on a bad team. You saw that Cleveland used him as a back-up scoring option when he was healthy. They didn’t miss him when he was gone. If I ask clients to bet on Cleveland to win the series, it’s because I think the “true” odds are -150 or less for Golden State (+130 or better for Cleveland)…and I believe that the Cavs could play a bit over their heads and steal the series. I’m not going to tell you up front that Cleveland is the better team. Better value? Could be! (Hint: Cleveland’s DEFENSE is much better when Love is in street clothes!)
*Golden State’s lack of playoff experience is going to matter more than the market believes. It’s one thing to coast past outmanned opponents as big favorites. It’s quite another to deal with a force like LeBron James when a championship is on the line. Even with its advantages in earlier rounds, the Warriors still had some nervous games. James knows what it’s like to play for (and win) a league title.
Now, on a game-by-game basis, it’s very likely that an underdog heavy bettor like myself will be rooting for the Cavs at least once or twice on the road. The games in Cleveland will probably be near pick-em…and there’s not much SHOCKER potential near pick-em! I want to stress here that I’m just talking generally about the series. It’s very possible that my read is for Golden State domination! My first task in any matchup is to determine whether or not there’s legitimate upset potential. If there isn’t…I know what to do!
By the way…I don’t talk too much about Over/Unders in my web articles typically. But, there’s very clearly some surprise potential here for Unders in select spots. The market has overshot the market in Golden State games all through the postseason. I may have a “Game of the Year” selection on an Under before it’s all said and done.
I’ve been handicapping NBA Championship battles for decades out here in Las Vegas. You can be sure I’ll put that experience to very good use over the next few weeks.
If you’d like to join me at the pay window, purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. Remember to pop in EVERY DAY so you can build your bankrolls with baseball when the Cavs and Warriors take a night off. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-ROOT-WINS during normal business hours.
Nevada sportsbooks are going to be rocking for the NBA Finals. That doesn’t always happen depending on the teams. But, Golden State has a very big (and growing) following from neighboring California. And, many in the general public love either rooting for or against LeBron James. The next best thing to watching the game at a sportsbook is winning a big bet thanks to WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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