Wayne Root: Finding the Best MLB Underdog Pitchers
The 2015 Major League Baseball season has more than a few longtime handicappers scratching their heads. The game is evolving before our eyes…and what might have worked in the past may not work so well now. Or, surprisingly, what DIDN’T work in the past might be a great strategy now!
As counterintuitive as that sounds, this “Don’t Make Sense” contrarian handicapper from way back is going to clue you into a hint that will help you find some great underdog bets this year in the bases.
In the past, pitching success was very much keyed to strikeout rate. The field of sabermetrics helped popularize this notion. Smart bettors were ahead of the curve until oddsmakers eventually caught up with the fact that flamethrowers could control their own destiny on the mound. But, a corollary to the “K’s are Great” line of thinking was that low strikeout rates were horrible. Franchises shouldn’t try to acquire pitchers who couldn’t get strikeouts…while bettors should load up against them because baseballs were going to be rocketing all over the field.
The main story of 2015 so far (and, really much of 2014 and a little of 2013 too) is that low strikeout pitchers can get people out…and can win money for smart bettors.
*If a low strikeout pitcher gets a lot of ground ball outs, he can make up for the lack of K’s by inducing a lot of double plays.
*If a low strikeout pitcher can “pitch to the shift,” then opposing batters are just going to be hitting the ball directly at fielders, leading to quick outs.
*If a low strikeout pitcher can get a lot of fly balls in spacious stadiums, particularly now that the steroid era is past, then he can win in conditions that don’t penalize contact very much.
*If a low strikeout pitcher can avoid giving up walks, then there won’t be anyone on base when hard hit balls happened to land safely. On-base percentage is important on offenses, creating low on-base percentages for your opponents by not issuing walks is also important!
Right now, Major League rotations are full of pitchers who were supposed to be mediocre or awful according to the preseason “analytics” publications that some of you may have been reading. Pitchers who should have been out of baseball two years ago…pitchers who should be in the minors because they’re not ready yet…pitchers who were treated as laughingstocks by smug writers who weren’t paying attention.
Oddsmakers paid too much attention to those previews. They’ve been making the mistake of undervaluing low-K pitchers all season long. Now, I’m not going to list those for you here in a web article. I plan on continuing to take advantage of this. If you’re serious about finding the best underdog pitchers from this point forward…
*Look all the K-Rates for MLB rotation starters
*Monitor how the market is pricing the lowest K-Rate pitchers
*Find those unheralded pitchers who keep getting results anyway!
*Study the groundball/flyball ratios of those low K pitchers so you have a better sense of how they get people out
By the way, I’m not saying that the era of the high strikeout pitcher is over. Those guys are still great! Well, the ones who aren’t so wild that they throw a bunch of walks. But, oddsmakers are already pricing those guys to the maximum, which takes away their betting value. By the way…a hidden benefit of ESPN’s new “Fantasy” baseball coverage hyping all the high-K pitchers is that the REAL value guys for sports betting are staying hidden. Fantasy players aren’t interested in pitchers who get ground ball outs. That media coverage is better for us!
THE KING OF UPSETS is confident you’ll start making better underdog bets if you follow today’s guidance. Baseball is changing before our eyes. It’s my job (and yours) to stay ahead of the oddsmakers. I’m the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Las Vegas. If an oddsmaker ever gets one, his will naturally be a few steps behind mine!
You can win along with WAYNE ALLYN ROOT every game day. Purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-800-323-4453 during normal business hours. Be sure to check on combination packages for baseball and the rest of the NBA Playoffs.
I’m hearing too much chatter at Vegas sportsbooks about how hard baseball is this year…or why it’s better to just pass the summer and wait for football to come back. I’m THE KING OF LAS VEGAS because I win 12 months a year. Don’t leave money on the table! It’s time for YOU to go to W.A.R alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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