Cincinnati Reds in a Free Fall
Wayne Root: Cincinnati Reds in a Free Fall
The KING OF UPSETS is always on the lookout for live dog situations in all Las Vegas betting sports. But, there's a big difference between how WAYNE ALLYN ROOT does things when compared to other "focus on underdog" approaches. I don't care about line value per se (though that's obviously important). I want an underdog that has a real chance to win the game.
And, THAT means I try to avoid underdogs who are dealing with internal chemistry issues, or may have tuned out their manager (or head coach).
The Cincinnati Reds are a great example of this right now. A team with this roster shouldn't be on a nine-game losing streak! But, there are clearly some issues between the players and their short-tempered manager Bryan Price who tends to throw his players under the bus when things aren't going well. I'm not going to take the Reds as a dog until that mess is resolved.
Cincinnati was an underdog in all five games of last week's interleague road trip.
Tuesday: Kansas City 3, Cincinnati 0
Wednesday: Kansas City 7, Cincinnati 1
Friday: Cleveland 7, Cincinnati 3
Saturday: Cleveland 2, Cincinnati 1
Sunday: Cleveland 5, Cincinnati 2
That's not a grueling week travel-wise. There were two days off! If ever an underdog should have been positioned to compete, it was Cincinnati. Yet, they went 0-5 with a combined 24-7 loss on the scoreboard. Yes, Kansas City is a great team this year. But, Cleveland isn't anything special. And, that's a state rivalry for goodness sake!
As you probably know, Cincinnati came home to lose as a favorite Memorial Day to Colorado. It's now nine straight losses overall, and a 3-12 record over the last 15 games.
Clearly this is a team you want to AVOID as an underdog, even if you think the market price is appealing. This team just isn't playing to their talent level and skill set right now. This is definitely a team you want to FADE when favored as long as the opponent can walk and chew gum. The only true line value on underdogs in Cincinnati Reds games is when their opponent is the dog. Maybe that will change soon. I need to see results before I invest in this team. (Note, if they fire the manager soon, THEN you can be sure I'll be looking to bet what will likely be a rejuvenated Reds team as underdogs).
The Miami Marlins are in a similar situation. Except, they fired their manager and things didn't get any better! That's because they moved the General Manager down to the dugout...a man with zero real world managerial experience. Players have no respect for pencil pushers...and may have gone further in the tank...
*Miami is 3-12 its last 15 games
*One of the wins was 1-0 in extra innings, they tried to lose and couldn't!
*Miami was swept in a four-game home series by Arizona
*Miami was swept in a three-game home series by Atlanta
*Miami was favored in ALL SEVEN of those Arizona/Atlanta games!
One of the best tells that a team isn't trying is that they're losing home games left and right. It takes an incredible lack of pride to no-show that many home games in a row. Cincinnati was bad enough losing state rivalry games to Cleveland so lethargically. How could anyone lose four straight home games to a team like Arizona?!
I won't consider taking the Marlins as an underdog until they show some signs of life. I must continue looking to fade them as favorites...though you'd think oddsmakers would get a clue about this particular story and fix the pricing!
WAYNE ROOT'S UNDERDOG KEYS
*Bet on talented dogs that can score enough to win outright
*Bet against overrated or otherwise distracted favorites
*Underdog line value only matters if your team is MOTIVATED
Even though it's not yet June, we're already seeing a "dog days of summer" mentality for a few Major League Baseball teams. That's only going to get worse as we move through June, July, and August. And, that's particularly true for non-contenders. You can make good money finding the right underdogs in this environment. But, you'll just be throwing money away if you try to back teams in turmoil just because the price on the board seems appealing. Don't fall into dumb traps!
I'll help you find the right games to play every night. You can always purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS during normal business hours. Be sure to check on combination packages for baseball and the rest of the NBA Playoffs.
Baseball oddsmakers are notoriously slow to react to clubhouse chemistry issues. And, math-minded quants who influence the market only look at stats anyway. That's why Miami kept losing as favorites! You need to hook up with somebody who really knows how to handicap baseball underdogs. It's time for YOU to go to W.A.R alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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