Where Have all the Upsets Gone?
Wayne Root: Where Have all the Upsets Gone?!
If you've been watching the 2015 NBA Playoffs, you know that upsets have been few and far between. Instead of having a bunch of matchups that are knotted up at one apiece through two games, we're seeing SEVEN of the eight with a 2-0 series advantage!
The only real surprise is Washington winning twice as an underdog in Toronto. That's a pair of upsets likely leading to a series upset. Other than those two, the only other game upset was San Antonio over the LA Clippers in that late overtime thriller Wednesday Night. That's barely an upset because the line was so short and the Spurs were the pre-series favorite.
Is this the beginning of a trend? Should bettors only be looking at favorites from this point forward? NO!
There are still some dogs who are getting the money. New Orleans was 2-0 ATS vs. Golden State. Brooklyn is 2-0 ATS against Atlanta. That means the two #8 seeds were a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road to kick things off. Boston split with Cleveland despite being outmatched in talent by quite a bit. The teams that the "analytics" guys loved entering the playoffs are playing well below expectations. Golden State, Atlanta, and Cleveland are 1-5 ATS!
I am concerned, though, that some of these other dogs have lost their fight.
DALLAS has obvious chemistry issues, will be playing without Rajon Rondo and Chandler Parsons the rest of the way, and has no way to make up for Dirk Nowitzki's aging body.
PORTLAND is struggling because of injuries, and a bad personnel matchup with Memphis.
MILWAUKEE has no offense, which really kills them in crunch time when the spread is in doubt.
If you're trying to make upset calls...the first piece in the puzzle is a motivated underdog capable of scoring an upset! Maybe one, two, or all three of these teams will get back on track in Game Three matchups that are being played the next few days. At least they've played in such a way to make their opponents overconfident!
That latter point will likely be the key to finding underdog value at the very least through the rest of the first round. We already see that Golden State and Atlanta are pacing themselves (or are in danger of having peaked too early). LeBron has an on/off switch he uses in the postseason (which is why Miami had to sweat more than they should have in the Eastern brackets in recent years). Teams like Memphis, Houston, Chicago, and Washington aren't good enough to just coast to victory if they take their foot off the gas. There's still plenty of time for this first round to get interesting.
I'd sum up my approach for the rest if the first round this way:
*Look for VALUE bets on underdogs based on the likelihood that the favorite is going to be a bit flat (at the very least).
*Look for UPSET CALLS only when the favorite is likely to be flat AND the underdog has offensive weaponry that can win the game outright. As I've told you often in the past...you have to SCORE to win! What are referred to as "defensive dogs" in the industry (those that rely on defense to stay close) make the most sense for "value" bets only. UPSETS need scoring!
I expect to step out on at least one major release in the next few days. Please keep visiting this website for news on that. It could be that it's best to bide our time until the second round before really stepping out in the pro playoffs. There won't be any teams who don't belong at that stage. And, things could get very interesting in the second round if market and public favorites like Golden State, Atlanta, and Cleveland continue to be overpriced on their home floor.
The NBA Playoffs aren't a "late April" event. They're a Spring and Summer event that will go all the way through June!
I'm definitely looking forward to the rest of the postseason. And, in combination with daily baseball, we're at a time on the sports calendar where serious sports bettors can really make a killing. I'm the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Las Vegas because I win year round in all sports! Football may be king in the minds of sports bettors, but WAYNE ALLYN ROOT IS THE KING OF LAS VEGAS because he wins in ALL sports!
If you're tired of losing on your own, you can purchase my top plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Call during normal business hours on weekdays (before the first game starts on weekends) and ask about full season baseball and my complete NBA Playoff package.
Don't make the mistake of thinking you should only bet favorites because dogs have been quiet in the first few days of a long playoff stretch. Dogs are about to bark! That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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