Wayne Root: Using Injury Reports to Find MLB Dogs
The last time we were together, I talked about using weather reports to find great underdog bets in Major League Baseball. Today I want to talk about how to use the Injury Reports for the same purpose. Some of my best underdog plays in this sport come when the market hasn't properly adjusted for the impact of an injury.
Game day prices are heavily influenced by the starting pitchers. And, market pricing is strongly influenced by overall perceptions of those pitchers. It's generally assumed that each "name" pitcher is throwing at full strength. Ace pitchers are going to pitch like aces. Pretty good pitchers in the 2-3-4 slots in the rotation are going to pitch pretty well. Innings munchers are going to munch innings in mediocre fashion, etc...
But, it's not uncommon at all to see "name" pitchers do through stretches where:
*They're trying to pitch through a serious injury
*They're pitching while bothered by a minor, nagging injury
*They're dealing with temporary mechanical issues
*They're returning from an injury layoff, and not fully healthy yet
In those cases, the market is treating them like they're at 100%, but they're not! Underdog bettors can make good money fading pitchers who aren't able to pitch at their normal level.
Be sure you stay abreast of pitching injuries across the sport. This is now very easy to do thanks to the internet. Every city runs notes about their local team. National websites cover this closely because of heavy fan interest plus Fantasy Baseball interest (nobody wants to put an injured player in their lineup!). It will help you now...and it will help you even more later in the season when favorites start to get even pricier. Fade pitchers who aren't at 100% health!
It always amazes me how many handicappers neglect offense in this sport. They seem to believe that pitching is everything. You'll even hear some pundits saying that Las Vegas lines are based only on the starting pitchers. NOT SO! The lines are based on the quality of the offenses AND the quality of the pitching. Starting pitching is a heavy influence, but not the only influence.
Some hitters, particularly highly paid star hitters, can be very stubborn about trying to play through an injury. They feel guilty sitting on the bench. They get a lot of negative feedback from fans and local media if they sit out with something deemed as "minor." But, it's those "minor" injuries that turn stars into mortals. If the market doesn't make an adjustment, you can make big money fading overpriced high payroll teams that have an injured slugger.
Maybe a team that's normally -180 should only be -150 when their best hitter is hobbled. Maybe a team that's normally -130 is now a true toss-up (or a small dog). The bulk of scoring in this sport comes from the heart of the lineup. If something's wrong with the heart, the blood isn't going to flow!
You don't have to monitor injuries for all position players. A lot of guys can be easily replaced because they're not that important to an offense anyway. But, be sure you're paying attention to potential injury issues for each team's main sluggers. The guys who bat 1-5 in the lineup, particularly 3-4-5. If any of those guys are in slumps right now with reported ailments...those slumps are going to continue until the problem is fixed. Therefore, those teams won't play to market expectations until the problem is fixed!
WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is the documented KING OF UNDERDOGS because I try to find every possible edge I can when trying to earn money for my clients. Maybe it's injuries...maybe it's the weather...maybe it's due to matchup possibilities that we'll discuss later in the season. Just remember that the BEST way to make money longterm in baseball is to focus on underdogs and small favorites. That's true now. And, we're going to have some great situations develop later in 2015 when some of the powers are priced around -200 while dealing with the natural wear and tear of a season.
I love baseball because you get to win SEVEN DAYS A WEEK all through the Spring and Summer. If you'd like to win with me you can purchase my top baseball plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Call during normal business hours any day this week. The sooner you call, the sooner you can start winning!
I'll be back later this week to talk about shocker potential in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. I'm planning to discuss upsets at the series level and on a game-by-game basis. I know many of you just bide your time through the NBA waiting for the playoffs to arrive. They're here this weekend! That plus all the profit potential in baseball means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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