Using Weather Influences to Find MLB Dogs
Earlier this week, I outlined several different ways to find value underdogs here in the early days of the 2015 season. You should be looking to fade overrated media teams and big-name pitchers who aren't yet in their regular season form. You should be looking to back lesser known pitchers who are well-suited to thrive in current conditions. Today, I want to add WEATHER into the mix.
Game conditions are of huge importance in the month of April...where it can be like winter at some sites but early summer in others. Here are some quick guidelines for dealing with the extremes.
IN CONDITIONS THAT HURT OFFENSE (cold, wind blowing in)
Look for dog offenses that can manufacture runs
Look for dog pitchers who allow a lot of fly balls
Look for dog pitchers who grew up in the Midwest or a cooler Northern climate
Look for dog teams who are emphasizing getting off to a good start
Look for veteran home dogs who deal with these conditions every season
Fly ball pitchers can look like Cy Young candidates when the launches they allow don't even carry to the warning track. We've already seen a few pitchers this week who were suited to conditions in that way, and that's going to continue through the month. In terms of offense, you want to find offenses who can get runs on the scoreboard some way, somehow...particularly if the opposing favorite relies on home runs offensively. I can't tell you how many times in April over the years that "the wrong team was favored" once you factored in HOW each team went about scoring their runs. If you're not paying attention to weather forecasts, you're missing all of these opportunities!
IN CONDITIONS THAT HELP OFFENSE
Look for dog offenses that hit a lot of home runs
Look for dog offenses that get a lot of guys on base (which magnifies home run value)
Look for dog pitching staffs that have deep bullpens
Look for dog starting pitchers who get a lot of strikeouts
In good scoring conditions, you want offenses that make contact scoring for you, while you back pitchers who get a lot of strikeouts. The opponent can't hit home runs if they can't get their bats on the ball! Expect some high scoring games where bullpens decide who wins late in the game. Be sure you know generally which ballparks help or hurt offense as you study the weather. The right underdogs will just pick themselves if you've done the proper preparation.
As THE KING OF UNDERDOGS, I've told you often over the years that one of the main keys to headline making upset calls (and, EVERY baseball underdog bet is an upset call), involves knowing which favorites to fade. You can turn around the guidance above to find go-against teams as well.
IN CONDITIONS THAT HURT OFFENSE
Fade favorites who rely too much offensively on home runs, they'll just be popping up all day
Fade pitchers who grew up in the deep South or in Latin America
Fade teams who are focused on the long haul, and may not bring peak intensity
Some of the lamest efforts you'll see from favorites in April involve veteran teams who are pacing themselves for the full season...who just go up to the plate and hack all day in cool or cold weather. They're not trying to put together big innings. They won't even remember this game come July! It's always smart to fade disinterested favorites.
IN CONDITIONS THAT HELP OFFENSE
Fade favored pitchers who are home run prone (you'd be surprised how many there are)
Fade favored offenses that rely on "small ball," outmatched in home run weather
Fade favorites with mediocre or worse middle relief
I can tell you right now that this month will see a few favorites in good weather starting home run prone pitchers, who are backed by mediocre or worse middle relief, facing underdog offenses who do a good job of getting guys on base and moving them around. DOG MONEY! We'll also see a few favorites in bad weather who are just going through the motions until later this season...matched up against inspired underdogs who are trying to manufacture runs NOW. That's MORE DOG MONEY!
If you'd like some help finding live dogs like that...underdogs who should be clear favorites...you can purchase my top baseball plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Call during normal business hours on weekdays, or before the first games start on weekends.
Next week we'll start gearing up for the NBA Playoffs. The number of great underdog opportunities may be falling by the wayside because so many playoff teams are in sluggish form right now. Rest assured that I'll find a way to get the right dogs at the right prices. With great daily schedules in baseball and pro basketball, it's clearly time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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