America Was Shocked, But I Wasn’t
Wayne Root: America Was Shocked, But I Wasn't!
Based on media coverage and public uproar, you would have thought that Thursday was the single most surprising day in the history of the NCAA Tournament. You know who wasn't surprised? WAYNE ALLYN ROOT! I went 7-1 on Thursday, cashing TWO Game of the Year Plays
The man who told you how to find upsets
The man who told you how to spot Cinderella stories developing
The man who told you why tournaments are ripe for market misreads
The man who told you that many major conference teams are overrated
The man who told you many off-the-radar teams are underrated
THE MAN WHO'S SPENT HIS CAREER PREPARING YOU FOR DAYS LIKE THURSDAY!
Congratulations to all of you who took advantage (and to everyone who scored on my big plays including the PINNACLE on UCLA (+4) over SMU). Shame on all of you who went down with favorite after favorite after favorite on a day where pointspreads had little to do with how the games were actually played. It's amazing how Las Vegas sportsbooks were rocking at first tip off, but them solemn through every session as the wagering public kept betting wrong side after wrong side.
I spent enough time the past few weeks preparing you for that kind of day. There's no need to repeat all the tips you should have been reading. But, I do want to lay out some current realities that you should have noticed if you were watching all the games Thursday.
*It's very hard for college kids to score in pressure situations vs. hustling defenses. Did you notice all the Unders yesterday? It's like watching a pitcher's duel in baseball. If you have two staff aces going head to head...it doesn't really matter if one offense is good while the other offense is mediocre. You're going to have a 0-0 or 1-1 game heading to the eighth inning. Nobody hits ace pitchers if they have their best stuff.
Though college basketball isn't quite that extreme...that's basically what you saw on a day where so many games went right down to the wire in low scoring affairs. Offenses get conservative while defenses get aggressive. That makes it hard for favorites to pull away. That makes many games a coin flip, even if all the computer data in the world says it's not supposed to be a coin flip.
*Coaches are making it worse by encouraging their offenses to "work for a good shot." The 35-second shot clock doesn't allow for that because defenses can hustle for the 27 seconds that the ball is in the frontcourt. Well, they don't even have to hustle if the ballhandler is just dribbling by himself for 10-15 seconds out on top. You will see the true elites attack the basket more aggressively today and deeper into the tournament. MOST teams don't know how to do that...so MOST teams struggle to get off good shots before the shot clock runs out. The nature of the game right now...particularly just below the level of the true elites...favors defense in the first place, and coaches make it worse by slowing down their own offenses.
*Officials aren't helping matters with their foul calling. Many are swallowing their whistles because they don't want to be the one who determines the winner. But, that just creates tight end-game scenarios where officiating might determine the winner! Right now, defenses are being allowed more physicality, which exacerbates the issues I've already talked about.
Will the extreme dog and Under scenarios continue Friday and on through the Dance? That remains to be seen. Elite teams can break that tendency (as you saw Thursday), and that who's most likely to control the flow in later action. I do expect some more great upset scenarios this weekend in the Round of 32...or at least coin flip situations that create value for the dog. I'll take each matchup next week on a game-by-game basis.
Some quick tips...before each game:
*Ask yourself "is this likely to be a 'pitcher's duel'"
*Find the scoring weapons most likely to break through defensive fortresses
*Find the coaches who are least likely to "get in the way" of their teams
*Determine of the market is still too enamored with one of the high profile conferences involved
I'm not going to get any more specific than that. I have a lot more bets to win for my clients!
You can win with me DAILY through the Big Dance and the other hoop tournaments this month. Purchase my daily BASKETBALL BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. It's a shame if you missed by Thursday explosion. That may have been one of the easiest days ever to beat the market! But, I can assure you that the winning is just beginning!
See you again early next week to talk more basketball. I'm already making headlines...and I know we'll have a lot more to talk about in that next visit. Thanks to everyone who was part of the Root onslaught. If you lost on your own, it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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