Will Packers or Colts Stun the World
Will Packers or Colts Stun the World With a Sunday Upset?
By Wayne Root:
We've been averaging one upset per weekend so far through the NFL Playoffs. Baltimore beat Pittsburgh as an underdog during Wildcard Weekend. Indianapolis shocked Denver in the Divisional Round last week...though they were helped by the injury Peyton Manning was so helplessly trying to play through.
This week, it's one of the underdog quarterbacks who's hurt? Can Aaron Rodgers battle through his torn calf muscle to shock Seattle at the league's toughest home site? Can Andrew Luck earn a surprisingly early (career-wise) trip to the Super Bowl by taking down Tom Brady? If there's been only one upset in every four games so far, is there room for any in Sunday's doubleheader?
WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is the undisputed KING OF UPSETS with more documented upset calls in history than any other handicapper. I've naturally been pondering those questions very seriously all week. Honestly, these dogs have more stacked against them than in their favor in terms of outright victories.
*It's very tough for opponents to win in Seattle
*It's very tough for offenses to score on Seattle's great defense
*Aaron Rodgers lost badly on this field in Week One when he was at 100% health!
*Young quarterbacks like Luck have to "learn" how to win championships
*Luck in particular becomes turnover prone in high pressure situations
*Indy's pass defense has been embarrassed a few times this year by good quarterbacks
Do I want to make upset calls against Seattle's defense and Tom Brady's offense?
If I'm going to SHOCK THE WORLD by nailing an upset (or two) this weekend, it will be because I believe that:
*One of the dogs can control the flow of the game by moving the chains and running clock
*One of the dogs can get enough points on the board to be there at the end
*One of the dogs can make defensive plays that set up cheap points
*One of the favorites will be overconfident off regular season blowouts over this opponent
Hey...none of those are impossible to imagine given the teams on the field. Of course, releases or bets on underdogs don't have to win outright if you're taking the points rather than betting the moneyline. Both Green Bay and Indianapolis may be more palatable as "value" underdog bets rather than upset calls given all the factors in play. Points can be at a premium when Seattle plays grinders. Tom Brady actually has a very poor ATS record as a favorite in recent seasons. There are reasons to like these underdogs near +7 if you don't have the stomach for an upset call.
Is WAYNE ALLYN ROOT possibly seeing value on the favorites? You regulars know I've been playing some favorites lately. I need to see blowout scenarios to follow that pathway. It helps that both favorites won blowouts vs. their opponents during the regular season.
Seattle (-4.5) beat Green Bay 36-16
New England (+3) beat Indianapolis 42-20
New England's win even came on the road...and they'll have home field advantage this time around. Wouldn't that SHOCK THE WORLD?! Root bets two NFL favorites over Championship Weekend! Hey, anything can happen.
I'm the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Las Vegas. I earned that star by picking winners for my clients for decades. That means calling for upsets when the time is right...but also investing in favorites when blowout potential is clear. I'm just not going to tell you here in a web article who I'm going to pick! That's not fair to my paying clients. I will tell you this:
*Turnovers are likely to play a big role in determining who covers this weekend. Teams playing the cleanest football are going to get the money.
*Weather could play a big role in shaping my thinking based on current forecasts...and I'm not going to tell you why that is because the information is too important! If you're a do-it-yourselfer, look over the forecasts and think through each team's strengths and weaknesses.
*It might serve you well to consider that the single biggest opportunity may end up being on an Over/Under.
My final decisions for Championship Weekend will be available for credit card purchase here at the website in the hours leading up to kickoff. If you have any questions about combination packages with basketball, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Smart bettors will be building their bankrolls between now and Sunday in the baskets.
Next week's articles are likely to be focused on basketball unless developments warrant a special NFL recap on Monday. Oddsmakers have been having a lot of trouble in both college and pro action on the hardwood. You really owe it to yourself to get involved. Don't wait until the tournaments to start betting college hoops. That's leaving way too much money on the table.
Championship Weekend in the NFL is shaping up as something very special. That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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