Can Ohio State SHOCK Oregon for the National Title?
THE KING OF UPSETS has had more than a week to think about that question. I follow the Pac 12 very closely, so I know all about Oregon's ability to run away and hide from opponents as favorites. If you're used to watching a lot of Duck blowouts, this seems like a very small line! But, I've cashed some very big tickets with the Buckeyes recently, including a PINNACLE UPSET CALL when they covered by more than 60 points against Wisconsin.
Who will WAYNE ALLYN ROOT be rooting for in Monday Night's National Championship game matching Oregon and Ohio State? I can't tell you here, because that wouldn't be fair to my paying clients. I can tell you what I'm focusing on from an "upset" perspective on Ohio State. If they can make a quality case for an upset, the Buckeyes will be my play. If not, I'll confidently be backing Oregon. It's that simple.
CAN THE DOG SCORE ENOUGH TO WIN?
There's no question about that here. Ohio State just scored at will vs Wisconsin and Alabama. Oregon is less physical than those teams, though not as soft as past Oregon units have been. If you can score 42 points on 537 yards against Alabama...you can succeed against anybody. Ohio State has a GREAT offense and can definitely score enough to win or cover.
You regulars know I emphasize this point quite a bit in my handicapping articles. A lot of old school handicappers talk about "defensive dogs" when trying to find value. Nothing wrong with that if barely sneaking by the number is all you're worrying about. If you're trying to find UPSETS and EASY MONEY, then you want underdogs who can score enough to win the game. That provides some insurance even if they don't win the game. They can always score late to get the money if needed. Big money potential and "value" at the same time.
IS THE FAVORITE GOING TO BE FLAT?
No way that happens here. One of the best edges you can have going into an upset call just isn't in play in a championship game. Oregon is going to be sky high. Oregon has a chance to make history. An underdog bet here wouldn't be "fired up dog" vs. "flat favorite." If you're making an upset call on Ohio State...it's coming against an opponent that will be breathing fire.
IS THE FAVORITE GOING TO BE OVERCONFIDENT?
That was definitely in my favor during my big winner on Ohio State over Wisconsin. The Badgers assumed they'd have an easy time of it against new (at the time) Buckeyes quarterback Cardale Jones. Alabama may have made that same mistake figuring that Jones couldn't play great two games in a row. Well, Oregon isn't going to make that mistake!
And, it's tough to be overconfident when you see your game's pointspread dropping in the newspaper every day. Maybe...if the media had been pumping Oregon up about their greatness, the Ducks might fall prey to coming in overconfident. That stage just hasn't been set in my view.
WILL WEATHER OR FIELD CONDITIONS HELP THE DOG?
The game is being played indoors, and both teams should be able to execute their offenses very well. This isn't a case where weather is going to inhibit a passing offense (which hurt the Denver Broncos in last season's Super Bowl). Remember the last time Oregon played for a national championship against Auburn a few years ago? The turf was so slippery in Arizona that neither team could get its footing. That killed Oregon's fast break attack. Not going to happen here.
Now, Ohio State played Alabama in a dome, and that worked out just fine for the Buckeyes thank you very much. It's not like Ohio State is going to be bothered in any way. My point here is that many of my best upset calls come when a favorite is dealing with problems they don't normally face. The ideal upset call involves fading a favorite that's out of its comfort zone. Other than having to deal with a fantastic Ohio State team, Oregon is very much in its comfort zone.
That's the backdrop. If WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is stepping out on Ohio State, it's because I think their potent offense can win the game clean against Oregon's defense. If I'm posting a major release on Oregon, it's because I see a fired up favorite getting to play in its comfort zone at a price that is manageable considering how point value lessens in high scoring games. The price is less than a touchdown for a team that scores a lot of touchdowns.
Who's it going to be? You have to sign up for service to find out! My final decision for this game will be available for credit card purchase here at the website throughout the day Monday. If you have any questions about combination packages with the rest of the NFL and basketball, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS.
There's been a lot of buzz about this game here in Las Vegas all week. Even with the NFL Playoffs going on (NFL is KING!), you're still seeing a lot of Buckeyes and Ducks faithful wearing their colors wherever you go. Monday is going to be crazy for one of the most anticipated college championship games ever.
THE KING OF LAS VEGAS is ready for one of the biggest nights ever in Las Vegas betting history. That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
By Wayne Root:
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