Do Pointspreads Even Matter in College Bowls?
Do Pointspreads Even Matter in College Bowls?
By Wayne Root:
Longtime gamblers have heard this truism many times when it comes to college football bowl games. Pick the straight up winner, and you’re probably going to have the pointspread winner as well.
That’s already 5-0 so far after the first weekend of bowl action. And, it’s not like the lines have even been close to the final scores! On Saturday...
*Louisiana Lafayette beat the closing number by 15 points
*Utah State beat the closing number by 5 points as a big favorite
*Utah beat the closing number by 32 points
*Air Force beat the closing number by 16 points
*Bowling Green beat the closing number by 8.5 points
Underdogs are 3-2 straight up (Lafayette, Air Force, and Bowling Green all won outright). The two favorites who won only allowed 6 and 10 scoreboard points on the way to comfortable victories. If a handicapper can figure out who’s best positioned to play well for 60 minutes, the pointspread will hardly ever matter.
Actually...if you do it right, the line only matters when you’re wrong! The points you take with an underdog offer some insurance if the team you selected makes a few mistakes, and is unable to win the game straight up. Maybe a +4 dog fails to play to your expectations, but still only loses by three. You still cash the ticket. Maybe a double digit favorite you’re fading shows up flat as you expected...but scores a couple of cheap touchdowns to win the game by six or seven. You still cash the ticket.
This is why I generally emphasize underdogs in bowl games. I’m focused on:
*Backing fired up underdogs likely to bring intensity and emotion
*Fading flat favorites who are disappointed to be in that bowl
*Backing Underdogs capable of putting points on the board and grabbing a victory
*Fading avorites with vulnerable defenses
If you find those...you’re going to win a lot of outright winners. WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is the KING OF UPSETS with more documented upset calls than any other handicapper. Now you know why! But, even if I don’t get the upset, the right underdogs will have some insurance built in because they’re getting some points. I won’t tell you that I win them all. A few teams will disappoint my clients and I through the full bowl campaign. That’s the nature of sports betting and all gambling. You try to put the percentages in your favor, and let what happens on the field take care of itself.
I will take some favorites. But, this is invariably when I believe a game has “blowout” written all over it against a posted line that’s way too short. In the early bowls, this most often occurs when:
*The conference of the underdog is overrated
*The conference of the favorite is underrated
*The offense of the underdog is likely to struggle
*The offense of the favorite is likely to shine
*Peculiar game conditions really help the favorite
In the bowls, there will usually be a few spots a year where a great running team is a cheap favorite against an underdog that’s bad at stopping the run. This is usually money in the bank. And, if weather is going to hurt the opponent’s passing game, then you have a “Game of the Year” type of scenario.
Also, you’ll often run into scenarios where behind-the-scenes reporting is alerting you to the fact that a short underdog isn’t going to show up because they’re mad about a coaching change or a player suspension. You definitely want talented favorites against no-show underdogs!
I’m very much looking forward to the bowl games coming up this week and this weekend. The schedule is really starting to pick up speed. That’s when I’m at my best! I’m the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Las Vegas because I win the most important games in ALL sports!
You can purchase my game day BOWL BEST BETS right here on the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about postseason packages, or combo packages with basketball, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. It’s really important that you build your bankrolls for the really huge college bowl games that come next week (like the National Championship semifinals matching Oregon vs. Florida State and Alabama vs. Ohio State; and great matchups like Baylor/Michigan State and TCU/Ole Miss) with a string of winners between now and the end of the month.
I’ll see you again after Christmas with my next online article. It’s very likely I’ll be discussing a key matchup in the final weekend of NFL action (probably Detroit at Green Bay because we know both of those teams will be playing again in the postseason!). But, there’s a chance that a major story in the bowls will grab the spotlight away. Between now and Friday, have a great holiday with your loved ones. Cash some tickets along the way with WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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