Finding Bowl Shockers in College Football
Wayne Root: Finding Bowl Shockers in College Football
With the college football bowl slate upon us, it’s time for THE KING OF UPSETS to talk to you about how to find shockers and stunners in the postseason. I want to state up front that it’s going to be harder to find a lot of truly big upsets this year because so many games are evenly matched! WAYNE ALLYN ROOT has more documented upset calls than any other handicapper in history. But, I didn’t make my name by asking 1-point or 2-point underdogs to win outright. A lot of these early bowls have pointspreads that small!
So, today, I’m going to talk about finding the big surprises where a team wins a blowout when laying less than a field goal, or when getting a small price. I can assure you this is going to happen a few times in the first calendar week of action. As I write this, 9 of the first 13 bowl games have pointspreads of a field goal or less. They’re not all going to be nailbiters. It just never works out that way in the college postseason.
MOST LIKELY TO WIN BIG
Teams who are FIRED UP!
Teams with versatile offenses
Teams with star quarterbacks
Teams who feel disrespected by the media
Teams who are well suited to climate, weather, and starting time
You don’t have to have all of these in your favor at once. But, it helps to have a few of them going for you. I’ve told you often in the past that you don’t want to call for an upset or make a big bet on a team that can’t score enough for you to win. Blowout results in bowls are often triggered by good offenses having a field day. Look for offenses who are in position to put points on the board because of their own talent, weaknesses in the opposing defense, and game conditions. High octane offenses are great indoors on a fast track or outdoors in great weather. You need to be careful with them in dicier weather or on bad field surfaces.
Motivational mismatches aren’t as common these days as they were in the past. Most of the conferences are now lined up in such a way so that mid-majors are playing other mid-majors, and major conferences are playing other major conferences. You still want to look for teams with an “us against the world” mentality who believe they have something to prove. Fired up “Davids” against disinterred “Goliaths” are less common unfortunately.
MOST LIKELY TO LOSE BIG
Teams who are disappointed to be in this particular bowl, even if it’s a big one
Teams who just had their “result of the year” in their prior game
Teams who are turnover prone
Teams with soft defenses
Teams who are only in a bowl game because of a soft non-conference schedule
Teams who aren’t well suited to climate, weather, and starting time
Right now, finding shockers and stunners is more about exposing bad teams who didn’t deserve to be in a bowl game in the first place. There are way too many of these since programs learned how to “game the system” to get at least six wins by facing cupcakes in September. You won’t find me risking my money or that of my clients on bad quarterbacks who can’t move the ball without turning it over, or on defenses who can’t stop anybody. That’s who we’ll be betting against!
There will still be some flat emotional spots. Everyone’s talking about TCU and Baylor being flat because they were snubbed by the tournament. First of all, what happened could just as easily channel an “us against the world” mentality for the Horned Frogs and Bears that leads to a peak effort. Secondly, the focus on those teams is taking the spotlight off many others! I want YOU to be thinking about is all the other teams who are disappointed to be in their particular bowl, and don’t really have a chance to send any messages in their matchup. I’m not going to start naming names because I need to protect line value for my clients. You should be making an effort to find those teams if you’re a do-it-yourselfer.
I have big plans for the bowl games. Given my hot run on PINNACLE plays and other major releases, I’m confident that this is going to be the best bowl slate ever for THE KING OF LAS VEGAS! You can purchase the bowl program online with your credit card, or by calling the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Be sure to ask about basketball when you call.
I’ll be back again later this week to talk more football. In the meantime, be sure you take care of business with nightly BEST BETS from the only man in the sports betting industry who has a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Las Vegas. It’s time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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