NFL Full of Surprises

Wayne Root: NFL Full of Surprises, and It Will Continue!

Many NFL pundits were scratching their heads at all the upset last week in pro football. It’s not just that some underdogs were covering spreads. That happens all the time. And, I’m not talking about “flat” spots on the schedule where a favorite was caught napping. I’m talking about home favorites who needed to play well...getting outclassed in situations where they should at least have been competitive.

Quick examples:

  • Miami (-3) was bulled by Baltimore 28-13. The Ravens won total yardage by almost 200! Any stat you could pick was dominated by Baltimore even though it was a must-have game for the Dolphins. It wasn’t a shocker that a three-point dog won outright. But, when that three-point ROAD dog won yards-per-play 6.9 to 4.5, or owned the second half 21-3...that was a bit of stunner.
  • Cincinnati (-3) was humiliated by Pittsburgh 42-21. You probably saw the highlights of that 94-yard touchdown pass for Ben Roethlisberger. They gamed about 450 yards besides that! Cincinnati was the first place team in a very tight division, and knew they had to show up big against the Steelers. They couldn’t stay with them in any meaningful statistical category. Pittsburgh won the second half 32-7. On the road against a first-place team!
  • New Orleans (-9.5) posted one of their worst home field results ever in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era in a 41-10 loss to Carolina. Carolina grabbed the game by the throat early. Even with a long garbage time, New Orleans couldn’t pass for more than 220 yards. This is the kind of game the Saints win at home...not the kind they lose! Carolina gained almost 500 yards of total offense.
  • San Francisco (-8.5) may have signaled the end of the Jim Harbaugh era with a 24-13 loss to previously 1-11 Oakland. San Francisco was outgained 330-248 by one of the worst teams of the past few seasons! I could understand a flat first half in a game like this if the Niners didn’t take the Raiders seriously enough. But, after a 10-10 tie at the break it was Oakland who took complete control down the stretch.

Again, we’re not talking about favorites who mostly played well but had back luck with turnovers...or favorites who were victimized by special teams play or defensive TDs by their opponents. Miami, Cincinnati, New Orleans, and San Francisco were playoff contenders who were seriously outplayed in games they were supposed to win.

I’m not going to get specific here in my web article about which NFL favorites may play poorly this coming weekend. I need to save that information for my paying clients! But, I can tell you that I expect more upsets in line with what you saw last week...and this is likely to continue the following weekend as well.

Why?

  • Some teams seem to be running out of gas, and more will suffer the same fate soon. Miami in particular is on this list from last week. Kansas City lost a small favorite in Arizona in a more competitively played game, and is probably in the same boat. It’s one thing to play like a contender for a couple of months. It’s another to seal the deal with a strong December. Be on the lookout for favorites who don’t have anything left in their tanks.
  • Some teams are giving up hope, or are otherwise sick of each other. San Francisco is in this class. They realized Thanksgiving Night vs. Seattle that they just didn’t have what it takes to win this season. And, nobody on the team can stand being around Jim Harbaugh any more. Look for at least two more contenders to reach similar conclusions this week or next.
  • Bad defenses only get worse when they’re tired. I think New Orleans fell into this category last week. They just couldn’t do anything to stop Carolina. Other contenders either have questionable defenses, or at least have fading defenses that are trending in the wrong direction. Oddsmakers price games based on past results and past stats. They often underrate the damage that a bad fading defense can do to a team in December.

You’ll be able to purchase my top NFL plays for Week 15 right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. This weekend’s light football schedule allows you some time to get locked in for my upcoming bowl and playoff package. And don’t forget about early season basketball!

THE KING OF UPSETS can recognize when surprises are about to happen. I’ve done my best over the years to teach you how to do that right here on these pages. And, I’ll keep doing that as long as oddsmakers keep overpricing favorites! Are you ready to cash in this weekend? It’s time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!

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