Exploiting Inexperienced Late Season Favorites
Wayne Root: Exploiting “Inexperienced” Late Season Favorites
Thanks to all of you who joined me this past weekend for PINNACLE winners on Ole Miss over Mississippi State Saturday, and the Atlanta Falcons over the Arizona Cardinals Sunday. There was a similar thought process behind fading both of those favorites. I wanted to go more in-depth for you website readers so you can apply the logic to other games coming up in the very near future.
Let’s go over what my “go-against” teams Mississippi State and the Arizona Cardinals had in common...
Who have no experience as “clutch” favorites
Led by quarterbacks in the same boat
Facing motivated home underdogs
Who could score points
In games where pointspreads had over-adjusted
There are more...but that’s basically the defining thread of each selection. Both teams were in uncharted waters, and they were being led by quarterbacks who had no experience at all in this kind of situation. To the degree Dak Prescott of Mississippi State had been in a huge road game with the whole world watching, he had struggled badly at Alabama until garbage time. Now he was facing an even better defense and continued to struggle. Drew Stanton? Give me a break! Hey, he’s a great story, but he’s not a playoff caliber quarterback.
It’s one thing to win games when there are no expectations. There’s no pressure. Maybe the opponent isn’t taking you seriously enough. A lot of “shock the nation” stories come from that backdrop. But, for both Mississippi State and Arizona, their “shock the nation” stuff was in the rearview mirror. They weren’t going to catch anybody by surprise any more. If anything, they were going to start questioning themselves. Did they really belong here? Did the Mississippi State players really see themselves as Final Four material? Did the Arizona players really see themselves as top seeds in the NFC?
Stick teams like that in a favorite role late in the season, and they’ll have trouble playing to newly inflated expectations no matter who the opponent is. In this case, the opponents provided worst case scenarios!
*OLE MISS was a bitter archrival playing to make its own statement as a team that was on the wrong side of the tournament bubble. The Rebels had nothing to lose with a group of athletes that’s probably equally talented as Mississippi State.
*ATLANTA was a division-leader knowing that they had to get a win to stay on top of the NFC South. This obviously hasn’t been a great year for the Falcons. But, there are a lot of veterans who have been through the late season ringer before. Think about this, I had Matt Ryan vs. Drew Stanton in my quarterback matchup...and I was getting points at home!
I’m always emphasizing to you the importance of having underdogs who can score points when you’re making upset calls. “Defensive dogs” can be bet for value of course. But, if you’re going to step out and call for a statement victory, you need teams who can score. Ole Miss has playmakers, and Atlanta’s only real strength is on offense. I was going to have a chance to win early. I was going to have a chance to rally if needed. Turns out I was sitting on leads in the fourth quarter of very similar 31-17 and 29-18 finishes.
Finally, you can make the case that the wrong team was favored in both games. That’s obvious now! It should have been more obvious to the market before kickoff. Imagine these games were played in early October. Would Mississippi State have been a ROAD favorite?! No way. Ole Miss would have been favored by around a field goal. Atlanta would have been a short home favorite themselves over Carson Palmer or Drew Stanton.
Ultimately, we didn’t need the free points we were getting. And, if you take a touchdown or even 10 points away from my teams, we still wouldn’t have needed them! But, it’s evidence that the market often overreacts to short term results without paying enough attention to team skill sets and the TRUE impact of intangibles in late season meetings. There are gifts like this on the schedule if you know how to find them.
WAYNE ALLYN ROOT has made a career out of knowing how to find them. I can assure you that many more are on the way! Join me this week and beyond for headline-makers from THE KING OF UPSETS. You can always purchase my Crunchtime College and NFL BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS.
Don’t forget to check on basketball! I won’t have much time to talk baskets until football has ended. But, I’m attacking the board every night. We have some great games coming up this week like Ohio State/Louisville on Tuesday, Duke/Wisconsin on Wednesday, and Texas/Kentucky on Friday.
I’ve been on fire all season on big plays. This past weekend’s PINNACLE performance shows that MONSTER winners are still there for the taking. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, it’s time or YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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