How to find Upsets During Thanksgiving Week
Wayne Allyn Root is THE KING OF UPSETS, with more documented upset calls than anyone else in the history of handicapping. So, you know I’ve been combing the Thanksgiving Week card trying to find the best underdog bets. Obviously I’m looking for outright shockers. But, I’ll accept when big dogs “just miss” their upsets, as we saw this past weekend with my PINNACLE plays on Iowa (+10) vs. Wisconsin, and the Minnesota Vikings (+8) vs. Green Bay. Both were live dogs who were ridiculously disrespected by oddsmakers in their respective situations.
I can assure you that we’ll see many more examples like that in the next several days. Now, I’m not going to be specific because only my paying clients get the exact plays. But, I will spend some time talking to you today about how to best isolate potential upsets. The fact that this is “Rivalry Week” in college football brings additional teams into play that usually wouldn’t be on my radar.
BEST COLLEGE UNDERDOGS TO TAKE
Those playing in traditional rivalry games
Those playing with revenge from a loss last year
Those treating this week like their “bowl” game because they won’t play again
Those who must win THIS game to become bowl eligible
Those with talented offenses, because it takes points to win!
Those who are “playing for something” in their conference race
Those who feel disrespected by recent polls
Those getting some help from weather conditions
Again, I can’t be specific. But, any college underdog I release to my clients this week is likely to have a few of those keys going for them. Cold weather was a nice sleeper to have in my picks on the Hawkeyes and Vikings...because it’s hard for favorites to win by double digits in brittle weather against fired up underdogs. Will it still be cold anywhere this week?
You longtime readers know that I always remind you that an important part of an upset call is finding a vulnerable favorite that’s in position to struggle. It’s not enough to find a live dog by themselves. A live dog is still going to lose to a fantastic favorite playing with motivation. You want the combination of live dog and vulnerable favorite.
BEST COLLEGE FAVORITES TO FADE
Those with something to lose who are likely to show nerves
Those with inconsistent or mistake-prone quarterbacks
Those who are run-heavy on offense, and are facing a good run defense
Those who just won a big game last week
Those with soft defenses who can’t get stops when needed
Those who have locked up a bowl, but can’t win their conference/division
Those who won a rivalry game easily last season
These fundamentals have been winning for me in late season college football action for decades. They work just as well now as they did in the 1980’s or 1990’s...arguably better because there’s a lot more bowl games now, which means intangibles involving needed or already acquired “bowl eligibility” affect more of the card.
In the NFL, I have to be careful because I don’t want to give away too much. It’s a smaller card, and easier for the market to reverse-engineer my likely picks. I will say this much:
BEST NFL DOGS TO TAKE
Those who have a reason to care (still alive in races, or playing a rival)
Those who can move the ball and score
Those getting help from the weather
BEST NFL FAVORITES TO AVOID
Those with inconsistent or mistake-prone quarterbacks
Those in playoff races who lack experience in playoff races
Those who just got a big result the prior week
Those who are playing with a QB who isn’t at 100% health
Frankly, the Vikings didn’t check off a lot of those boxes...and they still qualified for a PINNACLE play because they were a motivated home dog playing a divisional rival, because they were getting some help from chilly weather, and because Green Bay was coming off a huge nationally televised blowout against Philadelphia. You don’t need to check all of the boxes to have a great bet.
I’m really looking forward to this week’s card. The nature of the schedule allows us to pyramid our profits day-by-day through the holiday weekend. What a great way to spend Thanksgiving in Las Vegas! You can join the fun by purchasing my top plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS.
I will be making headlines again this weekend. I’m very confident of that. I’m the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Vegas because I’ve been making headlines since Day One! A Thanksgiving Week FEAST awaits. That means it’s time or you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
Today’s Hot Plays
Network Thursday Afternoon Getaway Day Play
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Network CFB Wild West Game of the Week
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Network Early College Dog Kicks off Winning Saturday
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Score Twice With Network SEC Double Play
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