How Bad Weather Helps Football Underdogs
Wayne Root: How Bad Weather Helps Football Underdogs
You may have noticed that big money starts to hit the football board on UNDERDOGS whenever bad weather is in the forecast. If you’re walking around Vegas sportsbooks when this is happening, you’ll inevitably here “squares” talking excitedly because the favorites they want to bet just got cheaper. Sometimes the public does win in those games, but over the long haul...weather influences DO favor underdogs.
And, that’s coming to you from THE KING OF UNDERDOGS, WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
I want to make sure you understand that because weather could often be a factor in both college and pro football from this point forward in 2014. Heck, the first NFL games Sunday in the Nevada Rotation are in Cleveland, Chicago, and Green Bay. Even if weather ends up not mattering there, it will at some point (particularly now that Minnesota is playing home games outdoors temporarily!)
Weather inhibits OFFENSE
Favorites are using laying points because they have an edge in skill position players. Snow, cold, rain, or wind have a limiting effect on what skill position players can do. Yes, BOTH teams have to deal with the conditions. But, the most potent offense gets hit the hardest because their advantage get subtracted out of the equation. This is why “sharps” here in town bet underdogs so quickly when weather forecasts become public. They don’t win every weather-related bet. They’re just trying to win better than 53% of them. It’s funny how often you’ll hear TV announcers and studio guys say that weather “helps” an offense because the defenders have such bad footing. Always remember that TV announcers studio guys would go broke if they had to make a living betting their opinions!
Weather creates TURNOVERS
You longtime bettors know how often turnover differential can swing a game. In good conditions, superior teams usually get the best of the category because they know how to execute. Inferior teams have to go to high-risk approaches when trying to catch up. That just leads to more turnovers. In bad weather, superior teams start fumbling and throwing interceptions too. It’s a randomizing effect that turns games into coin flips. Again, BOTH teams have to deal with the turnovers...but the fact that turnovers are now more common helps underdogs stay close or score an upset.
Weather magnifies INTANGIBLES
A team that desperately needs to win starts to play very nervously when weather is disrupting what they wanted to do. They’re taken way out of their comfort zone at the worst possible time. On the other hand, an underdog with nothing to lose is going to enjoy playing in snow or rain, and will treat the game like one big party. If wind is an issue, an underdog with a good running game but a questionable quarterback is going to be just as fired up about conditions. How often have you seen bad weather upsets where the favorite looked scared to death in the fourth quarter while the underdog was laughing after every big play? You want to be on the side that’s laughing!
Weather inspires STRATEGY, and many big name coaches aren’t tacticians!
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve taken a smart coach with points over a dumb coach in game conditions where brains will determine who wins. Some of the biggest name coaches got that way by RECRUITING, not by being chess players. Weather cuts down on the value of recruiting great athletes in that one particular game. This allows the tactician to play the wind properly, use the most intelligent conservative approach, or bait their opponent into mistakes. It’s usually the professional sports where you have to handicap chess matches because of parity. Weather makes that a reality at the college level too...because anything that’s an “equalizer” is by definition, leading to parity.
I strongly advise you to start reading online weather reports more closely. In the colleges, you want to look at snow and wind up north (Big 10 and MAC, plus the Northern schools in the AAC, ACC, and Mountain West), rain and wind anywhere, and even just wind everywhere if forecasts are for at least 10 mph or more sustained. In the NFL, pay close attention to the classic “ice belt” cities across the Northeast and Midwest. If the TV news people are right, we may be seeing a polar vortex or two before the season is over.
Handicapping weather games is always a lot of fun. So is winning money! Last weekend my top games went 4-0, ALL WERE OUTRIGHT UPSETS! You can purchase this weekend's top plays, including upcoming November PINNACLE headline-makers, right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Don’t forget to check on combination packages that include college and pro football PLUS college and pro basketball.
It’s always sunny and nice here in Las Vegas. Conditions will be great this weekend for making money! That means it’s time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!