Finding Early Season Upsets in the NBA
Wayne Root: Finding Early Season Upsets in the NBA
This is my first chance to talk about the NBA this season. Part of the reason I wanted to delay my first post is because I didn’t want to remind oddsmakers about the strategies that always make my clients so much money! But, now that we’re a couple of weeks in, the market has had a chance to adjust to teams who have turned out to be much better or much worse than expected.
You see, early season NBA (and college hoops coming up) is a dream world for underdog bettors like WAYNE ALLYN ROOT. You regulars know I don’t bet 100% underdogs. But, my action is heavily shaded in that direction because that’s where the value lies. Oddsmakers are constantly giving away free points because too many bettors bet too many favorites. Here’s a quick list of why “upset calls” and underdog value bets can be so potent right out of the gate.
The best teams are PACING themselves!
NBA powers want to be ready for the playoffs in the spring. There’s no reason to bring peak intensity right off the bat. Yet, oddsmakers price playoff teams as powers all the time. There’s not a “November” rating vs. a “Playoff” rating for the best teams. They’re always priced like elites. That offers consistent value generally, and specific value in games where you know they’ll be going at three-quarter speed while fired up opponents will be going all out. Finding those situations is how I make headlines!
The best teams are RUSTY and/or EXPERIMENTING
That rustiness was a big deal in the opening days. I hope you took advantage. Teams are getting sharper now after having several games in the books. But, we’re still seeing a lot of head coaches experimenting with new lineups, new rotations, new styles of attack, and other elements that keep teams from playing at their best. Again, everyone’s aiming to be at their best in the postseason. It takes awhile to learn new offensive plays or defensive rotations. That means early season sluggishness for teams who are priced as perpetually sharp.
The WORST teams are still PLAYING HARD
None of the bad teams have thrown in the towel yet. None are exhausted. Malcontents don’t hate each other now the way they will in January and February. That means the relative doormats of the NBA won’t be playing like doormats in these early weeks. Sure, there will be some ugly outings here and there. But, the distance from best to worst in the league is smaller now than it will be later because both ends of the spectrum have squeezed toward the middle. Great teams aren’t great yet. Bad teams may be 4-5 points better in Power Ratings right now than they’ll be once the drudgery of the full season sets in.
If you’d like to be on the right side of the equation for the next several weeks, I suggest taking the following actions.
- Study ATS results with an eye on favorite/dog breakdowns
- Create Power Ratings based on real results, not on what you think “should” be happening
- Find which playoff contenders relax during back-to-back’s on the schedule
- Find non-contenders who have hustling benches
- Study injury reports so you know which “stars” are hobbled and likely to coast
I’m not going to talk about specific teams because I need to keep those in my hip pocket so we don’t lose line value. If you’d like to handicap and WIN like WAYNE ALLYN ROOT, I’ve just given you the roadmap. It came to you direct from the only man in the sports betting industry who has a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Las Vegas. Talk about the road to riches!
If you prefer to let ME do the work while you cash tickets at the betting window, you can always purchase my top plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. They would love to talk to you about combination packages that include both basketball and football.
This is a great time to sign up for service because we have something special going on every day of the week. And, that’s only going to get more intense in the coming days when college hoops joins the schedule. College football is ripe for upsets with all the big rivalry games and “nervous” spots for teams in the playoff hunt. Pro football is ripe for upsets because “must win” teams start to choke just as the lines get too high. I explained today why the NBA is ripe for upsets. In the not-too-distant future, I’ll clue you in on why college hoops is so profitable between now and the holidays.
I’M THE KING OF UPSETS FOR A REASON! Many reasons actually. That’s why it’s always time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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