Wayne Root: False Football Favorites are Everywhere!
It amazes me every October how oddsmakers continue to post “false favorites” on the board in college and pro football. There are teams laying points that are clearly the underdog in that week’s scenario. And, there are often favorites of more than a TD who are in true coin-flip situations that could go either way.
A great example of a false favorite from this past weekend was Stanford (-) at Arizona State. Clients know I had the Sun Devils for this week’s PINNACLE play. I thought they should have been favored. Turns out they should have been favored by a lot! If you didn’t stay up to watch on TV.
Arizona State beat Stanford 26-10
Arizona State outgained Stanford 356-288
Arizona State didn’t turn the ball over once while forcing two
Arizona State led wire-to-wire, and never had to sweat
It was one of the easiest PINNACLE winners ever because you could tell minutes into the game that the money was ours. Again, Arizona State was GETTING points as the superior team playing on a tough home field.
I fully believe that the market will soon have ASU rated as the better neutral field team. Because this game was being played in “my backyard” where nobody’s better…I was way ahead of the curve.
Another Saturday matchup offered a great situation even if the underdog wouldn’t grade out better in Power Ratings. That was West Virginia (+) at home vs. Baylor. I’ll concede that Baylor is the better team overall, and would be a neutral field favorite. But, ON THIS SATURDAY, I honestly believed West Virginia was going to win the game.
- Baylor was exhausted after a true war with TCU
- Baylor was doubly exhausted because a physical game with Texas preceded TCU
- Baylor’s defense is pretty bad when it’s fresh!
- West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen is an offensive-minded head coach
- West Virginia is a very tough place to travel to and play
- The very early kickoff sure wouldn’t help Baylor show up with sharpness
If West Virginia were a better team, they might have won by four touchdowns! They ended up only winning by two in a 41-27 decision because they kept giving the ball away. West Virginia won total yardage 456-318, and had five long TD drives. They would have topped 500 yards if they hadn’t turned the ball over three times.
I can already tell you that this coming weekend…and through the rest of the college and pro seasons, there are going to be false favorites where the inferior team is actually listed as the favorite…and others where “in that scenario” the wrong team is favored because of unique dynamics that have come into play.
How can YOU find them? Those recaps provide some very important hints:
- Compile your own Power Rankings to evaluate team quality
- Know which schools have extra home field advantage
- Know which visitors have extra “road field disadvantage” because of travel distance
- Monitor fatigue for teams who haven’t had a bye week in awhile
- Don’t always assume oddsmakers know what they’re talking about!
If you lived here in Las Vegas, and got to hear oddsmakers on the radio or see them quoted in newspapers, you’d be a lot less intimidated by their so-called expertise. And, that’s even true in local conferences like the Mountain West and Pac 12. It’s MY backyard not their backyard! If you follow a conference very closely because of where you live or where you attended college, you’ll definitely be able to spot a few false favorites between now and the end of the season.
Too many public bettors fall in love with favorites because they want to win blowouts, or because they feel there’s extra insurance taking the “better” team. What they don’t understand is that the market often offers up the “better” team as an underdog! My PINNACLE play on Arizona State had that insurance with the better team, and points in my pocket. Turns out I didn’t need the points. We could have been laying two touchdowns.
I’ll have more great underdogs for you through the week in football (along with spot favorites that are underpriced). Game day BEST BETS can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Don’t forget that we have TUESDAY action this week in both college football and the World Series.
I’m the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Las Vegas. I’m always a few steps ahead of the oddsmakers. If one ever gets his own star, it will naturally be a few steps behind mine! If you’ve been missing out on my recent winners, it’s time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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